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2006 Prediction Review!
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It's November, and that means it's time to reflect back on how well the Baseball Evolution staff did in predicting how the season would go. Overall, the analysts did pretty well in gauging a season in which so many conventional picks went awry. So let us begin with those picks that we were most proud of and work our way towards the ones we'd rather not remind you about.
No one thought that the Detroit Tigers would be anything this year. No one except Scott Glab, that is. He had the Detroit Tigers winning the AL Wild Card, and if memory serves, that's exactly what happened. Admittedly, he was still off by seven regular season wins and didn't have the Tigers winning a single postseason game, but show us someone who was closer with their pick for this shocking Tigers ballclub.
Nearly everyone had the Florida Marlins losing triple digits in games this year. Keith was ridiculed for having the audacity to pick this team with a "Triple-A roster" to win 77 games on the season. As it turns out, he was off by just one game - one game too few. Eric was almost as excellent, pegging them for 76 victories.
Scott had the Cardinals winning the World Series, which didn't seem like an unusual pick at the time, but wound up being a huge upset.
Not many people fell for the Cubs this year, but not many predicted the utter disaster that Asher did, either. He had them winning 64 games; they managed 66.
Likewise, it's not exactly an upset to pick the Yankees to have the best record in the AL. Yet Tony was the only member of Baseball Evolution to do it, and wound up actually predicting one fewer win than his favorite team actually tallied.
Richard was the only prognosticator to give the Reds any credit. He missed their final win total by just three.
He was also the only staff member not to buy into the Pirates as a decent team. He missed their record by just one win.
Scott and Asher each correctly had the Blue Jays finally usurping the Red Sox for second place in the cookie-cutter AL East.
They also each pegged the Phillies for 85 wins, one short of their actual total.
Good... but not quite good enough
Rich thought that he was being bold in predicting that the AL would finish 23 games over .500 with a .510 winning percentage. It turns out that they finished an unprecedented 28 games over .500 for a .512 winning percentage. Keith was correct that there would be five AL teams with 90 or more wins (three in the central), and guessed along with Scott that only five NL teams would finish with a winning record (there were six).
Keith had the underdog Twins winning 90 games and missing the playoffs. They in fact won 96 games, good for the second best record in the AL.
Yeah, but everybody got these wrong
No one on the staff had the nuts to predict that the Braves would fail to win the NL East. Shame on us.
We mentioned that the Marlins were generally pegged for 100+ losses. However, Richard went the extra mile by slating them for 113.
Scott was the only staff member not to say that the Indians would win 89 or more games. The others forgot that while the Indians won 93 games in 2005, they did not post a winning record in any of the previous three seasons. Asher went the furthest, with Cleveland winning 98 games and losing just one postseason game on the way to a World Championship.
Eric, Richard, Asher, and Scott all had the Minnesota Twins finishing well below .500 on the year. They forgot that while the Twinkies won "only" 83 games in 2005, they had also boasted 90 or more wins in the three previous seasons.
Keith, Asher, and Tony each believed that the Tigers would win fewer than 75 games.
Eric saw the Rockies finishing with the worst record in baseball. Seven teams wound up finishing worse.
What were we thinking!
Keith and Eric each had the Red Sox winning the AL East handily. Eric pegged them for the best record in the AL while Keith had them winning the World Series. Both had the Yankees winning fewer than 90 games.
Richard had the Brewers winning 91 games, good for the 4th best record in the NL.
Keith and Asher each thought that the Angels would fall short of the .500 mark.
Eric made a homer pick and declared the Cubs good for 86 wins. Living in Baltimore when he made these predictions, he also had the Orioles finishing with a .500 record.
Tony had both the Cubs and the Giants winning 86 games, and he's not even a fan of either team!
Asher had the Indians, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Rockies all finishing .500 or better. None of them actually did. He also pegged the Padres for 70 wins, the lowest win total predicted for any of the actual division winners.
Asher: Carlos Zambrano will have a fantastic year, but it will be a Steve Carlton-esque season, in which he will be the only bright spot for the Cubs.
Scott: Though a less impressive team than its recent incarnations, I see no reason why the Cards can't have playoff success this year.
Keith: I just don't see any way that Atl, NYM, Stl, and LAD fail to fill out the NL playoff bracket this year.
Tony: I don't see the White Sox repeating this year. Their rotation will be good but nowhere near as good as last year.
Richard: For those who doubt the Sox, either Red or White, the
pitching will be there.
Part II - The Leaderboards
Think you can outpick us? Send us your 2007 picks and prove it! The staff of Baseball Evolution can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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