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Dear Reds Fans
by Asher B. Chancey, BaseballEvolution.com
September 15, 2006

Dear Cincinnati Fans,

Good news! It turns out that all conventional stats have officially been thrown out the door, and as a result, it turns out that you have one of the premier players in the game in your Adam Dunn.

So, stop all your complaining about Dunn's ever plummeting batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. It turns out that Dunn's predicted OPS is actually much higher than his actual OPS, so in fact, Dunn is actually awesome!

That's right Reds fans, what Adam Dunn has actually dunn this season doesn't matter, because in terms of predicted performance, he is a fantastic player, and that is what matters.

Never mind the fact that Dunn continues to drive in embarrassingly low amounts of runs for his homerun total. Forget the fact that his OPS is shockingly low for a guy who walks 100 times a season. His predicted performance is so much better than his actual performance that it actually renders what he has actually done irrelevant. In fact, Dunn is missing his predicted OPS by the largest margin in all of baseball! While you might be tempted to interpret that as Dunn is the player in baseball making the least of his potential and his ability, don't be silly! Clearly, Dunn is just not getting the lucky bounces this season.

Oh, and another thing Dunn is actually very fast for a guy his size. Forget the fact that he has stolen 16 bases over the last three years, and the fact that he continues to fail to score significant runs, over and above those he scores on homeruns, per time on base. You see, Adam once stole 20 plus bases in back to back seasons in the minors, so he is actually quite the stolen base threat!

It is also important for all of you Reds fans to remember one thing Adam Dunn is only 26 years old! You know what that means, don't you? You don't actually have to expect anything from him this season. In fact, you should be greatful that he is the great player that he is. I mean, sure, he hits 40 homeruns and doesn't do much else, but he is only 26 years old for pete's sake. I mean, do you know where other players who are leading their teams to great things were at 26? No where! No where at all!

Adam Dunn still has plenty of time before anything should be expected of him. In fact, I can't think of another player who has accomplished as much as Dunn has by the age of 26 - not current players anyway. Just because he has been in the league for five years now, and his progress seems to be headed downward, make nothing of that! I mean, Adrian Beltre was in the major leagues for six years before he finally became a major league superstar in his seventh season, and look at him now! Dunn has plenty of time.

Most importantly, Reds fans it turns out that Predicted OPS is actually a better predictor of OPS than actual OPS is! I know that, on the surface, that may seem silly, as though some abstract statistic better measures a person's OPS than his OPS does, but I think in time you will see, it makes perfect sense. Even though the Dunner continues to get worse in each offensive category each season, never fear next season he is predicted to be awesome.

So, Reds fans, this October, when you are sitting at home watching other teams play in the post-season, and you are tempted to blame the Reds' failure to make it into the playoffs on Adam Dunn's performance coming down the stretch - don't! Instead, make sure you sit back and relax, and know that in the Predicted World Series, Adam Dunn will be leading the Predicted Reds to victory. And also take comfort in knowing that, while Dunn may not be performing at the top of his game now, he is still young, and has his best years ahead of him.

Imagine how good we'll be predicting him to be then!



Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.

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