Is It Time for Tony to Take Off?
by
Asher B. Chancey,
BaseballEvolution.com
August 17, 2006
A good friend wrote recently, and told me he had an idea for a story for baseballevolution.com. Always interested in ideas, I listened attentively as he told me his idea. An avid fan of the St. Louis Cardinals, this friend told me that I should write a story about how it is time for Tony LaRussa to "spend more time with his family," as the euphemism goes.
At first I was skeptical. After all, the Cardinals have been to the playoffs six times in the 10 years that LaRussa has been there, and appear on their way to a seventh trip this season. Yet, it is interesting to note that the Cardinals have nothing to show for their success – one trip to the World Series, and no ring. Worse yet, the Cardinals were swept handily by the 2004 Red Sox in that one trip, with their best players coming up empty during the Series.
Perhaps my friend was correct. Perhaps it is time for Tony to move on. After all, its not like sending a successful coach packing hasn't worked in the recent past. The Miami Heat just won the NBA Finals after jettisoning a head coach in Stan Van Gundy who had led them to Game Seven of the Conference Finals the year before. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl under Jon Gruden one year after saying "See Ya!" to the most successful coach in franchise history, Tony Dungy.
We need not only look to other sports for examples - this has occurred in baseball as well. Buck Showalter has twice been shown the door in the aftermath of a winning season, and twice his former team has won the World Series the very next year. The Red Sox 86'ed Grady Little after losing in the 2003 ALCS, and won the World Series the following year. Heck, Joe Torre has been on the bubble in New York for
years simply because the Yankees haven't won a World Series in, what, five years?
Everyone agrees that bad teams can get better with a change of leadership, but rarely do we realize that good teams can also get better with a change at the helm. The Chicago White Sox finished with a winning record for Jerry Manuel for four straight seasons, yet only after Ozzie Guillen took over did the Sox stop under achieving and win their first World Series in a hundred million years.
Still, one has to wonder – is my friend the Cardinals fan simply being too greedy? Is he taking winning for granted? I know that I, as a Cubs fan, would be pleased as punch to have a manager who led the Cubs to the type of extended success the Cardinals have had. I know my beloved New Orleans Saints would have loved to have had the type of run the Buccaneers had under Tony Dungy. And I don't think the fans in Kansas City would have registered quite the hatred for Grady Little that Red Sox Nation managed. Perhaps my Cardinals loving friend should be pleased to have such a winning team, rather than thinking of sending LaRussa on his way.
Nevertheless, there are no shortage of red flags going up in St. Louis that indicate it may be time for LaRussa to move on. LaRussa is currently in his eleventh year with the Cardinals, which is one year longer than he managed the A's, and three years longer than he managed the White Sox. His tenure is tied with Joe Torre for second longest in the majors behind Bobby Cox (ironically, Torre is the manager whom LaRussa replaced when he came to St. Louis). After running away with the NL Central the last two years, LaRussa is in a fight for the division with the Cincinnati Reds this season, and at 64-56, the Cardinals are not the best team in the National League for the first time since 2003. The Cardinals are not where they have been the last couple of years in terms of either hitting or pitching, though Pujols and Carpenter remain at the top of the game. Jim Edmonds is aging, Jason Isringhausen is not the closer he once was, the pitching staff as a whole has faltered, and this incarnation of the Cardinals appears to be on the downside of its run. While this team will certainly not be "rebuilding" over the next couple of years, there will certainly be a significant change over in personnel, which may create the ideal moment for LaRussa's departure.
And get this - Tony LaRussa got his first managing job with the Chicago White Sox in 1979 at the age of 35. He managed the Sox for eight seasons before getting the ax during the 1986 season. He then took over the Oakland A's
that very same year, and proceeded to manage the A's for the next ten seasons. Then, he once again got the ax, and the very next year began his current run with the Cardinals. That means he has been coaching in the majors continuously since 1979. I mean, I'm not saying the guy needs to take a year off, but . . .
Truth be told, Tony LaRussa's career has been marked by regular season success and post-season failure. His first division winning team, the 1983 White Sox, got embrassed in the 1983 ALCS, winning Game One in Baltimore before getting trounced in the next three games to lose the best of five series. In five out of the last six years, LaRussa's mighty Cardinals teams have been escorted out of the playoffs by less powerful teams with worse regular season records. And let us not forget the mighty Oakland A's of 1988-1992, who won four division titles in five years, with only one World Series ring to show for it. The 1988 and 1990 teams in particular were simply embarrassed in the playoffs, losing to an inferior Dodgers team in five games and getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds in 1990 in stunning fashion. Conventional wisdom says that the A's teams of 1988-1990 should have easily won three World Series titles.
Fact is, even with a personnel changeover, the Cardinals still have a solid nucleus in Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Cris Carpenter. This is a team that won’t take too long of a break, if any, from winning. What the Cardinals need to do is decide whether Tony LaRussa is a manager that can take them to the next level or not. History would seem to indicate "not".
Truth is, I hope Tony LaRussa does take a walk. Speaking on behalf of the millions of Cubs fans who would welcome the kind of success that Tony has brought to Oakland and St. Louis, let me be the first to say - we'll be happy to have you.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA, and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.