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Mailbag - Adam Dunn
by Asher B. Chancey, BaseballEvolution.com
September 17, 2006


Hey Asher,

I'm not disagreeing with your Adam Dunn article - I mean, what point would there be, when every moron in the greater Cincinnati area already agrees with you. (ok, that was overly snarky – it is, however, true)

Here's my problem: granted, I'm not sure if you're a Reds fan or not, but I'll fire away nonetheless:

Why are you worried about a guy (Dunn) who is clearly a good player? I mean, I'm willing to concede that reasonable people can differ, but let's focus first on the REAL problems that the Reds have. ROYCE CLAYTON WAS IN THE STARTING LINEUP OF THIS TEAM!

Sorry to use caps; I know they're obnoxious. Clearly, though, there is a problem in Cincy if a past-his-prime, never-was shortstop can get PT in a quote-unquote "playoff" team. How about the ridiculous 32 blown saves this year? Wasn't it Bill James who said (to paraphrase) that bad teams are the ones who blame their failures on the shortcomings of their best players?

Anyway, I hope this is more cordial than other statheads' emails to you, because I'm doing my best to foster an actual dialogue here. I'm not trying to give a blanket dismissal of your article; I just disagree that Dunn is an obstacle to a Reds playoff appearance. A .400 OBP with 45 HR isn't usually the sort of thing that hurts a team.

-Mike



Mike,

Very cordial email, absolutely. The reason I made the issue one of "Reds fans" is because my BaseballEvolution.com colleague made all of his points with respect Dunn's age, and Dunn's predicted performance, and rather obscure stats, all of which, in my view, was an attempt to try to look past the fact that, hey, guess what - the Dunner hits .245 and strikes out a ton, doesn't score a lot of runs for a guy with his walk total, and doesn't drive in a lot of runs for a guy with his homerun total.

Is he a good player? Obviously I would like to have a 40 homer guy on my team, but as far as a 40 homer guys go (loaded statement), I think the Dunner is a huge underachiever.

So, I put my article in the context of a letter to Reds fans to draw out the point that - it appears to me - that predicted OPS and runs created may be great, but aren't much of a consolation to a team that would like to go to the playoffs.

Personally, I was shocked when Krivsky made the trade with the Nationals that sent Kearns and Lopez for a some dinky pitchers and Clayton. Seriously, I do not think that was a good move. He has made some interesting pitcher acquisitions, and the fact that the Reds still have one legit starter and no closer probably has more to do with missing the playoffs than Adam Dunn's failure to score runs, stop striking out, or hit above .250.

Nevertheless, the guy has been in the league for five years now, and has not shown any actual improvement in his game, and I find that frustrating.

And oh by the way . . .

I am quoting you here - "A .400 OBP with 45 HR isn't usually the sort of thing that hurts a team."

His OBP is not .400 - it is .367. That is significantly less than .400. 2nr And 40 homeruns is not 45 homeruns. That is also a significant difference.

And in terms of hurting his team's playoff chances - he is 6 for 45 in September with 2 homeruns, 6 runs and 4 RBI, 10 walks and 21 Ks.

The Reds are 6-8 for the month.

In fact, and stop me if I am simply taking you too literally, but Dunn has hit 45 homeruns or more exactly once, his second full season, and he has finished with an OBP of .400 exactly once, in his first full season.

His full season OBP since 2002 - .400, .388, .387, .367 (I skipped 2003 because he only played 116 gamesm but his OBP was .354).

His full season OPS since 2002 - .854, .956, .927, .875.

His trend is downward, know what I mean?

Look, 40 homeruns is great, but what has it gotten the Reds? 91 RBI and 94 runs, for 185 R+RBI. You know who else has 185 R+RBI this season? Many guys who do not have 40 homers, but still manage to produce runs.

I don't see Adam Dunn as the kind of player who does things other than score and drive in runs to make his team better, and he isn't scoring and driving in any more runs than Michael Cuddyer at this point.

He is a good homerun hitter, but he does little else. And worse, his numbers are going in a downward direction, not upward. I find that frustrating.

What's more, he had a great April, but is having a lousy September. And that is frustrating.

No, I am not a Reds fan.

Thanks for the email,

Asher


Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.


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