by Rufus Terragon, Special to BaseballEvolution.com
April 18, 2008
After an off-season rife with speculation regarding season-ending elbow surgery, the decline of a young legend, and the end of the start of a brilliant Hall of Fame career, Albert Pujols’ surprised all his doubters and cynics, as well as his adorers and fans, by jumping out to an enormous start. In this one-page report, we address the question: Has Albert Pujols’ injury made him a better hitter?
What Is The Injury? Pujols has an injured elbow, by now we probably all know this. But what many don’t know is that Pujols first injured the elbow in 2003 – in the middle of what was arguably his best season – when he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. What was originally merely a tear has progressed to the point of bone spurs, inflammation, and arthritis, which led many to suppose that he was due for major reconstructive surgery this year, and as much as a year-and-a-half off for rehabilitation. Indeed, Pujols seemed destined to join the list of great tragically suffering sports figures, joining the likes of Sandy Koufax, Bo Jackson, and Ken Griffey, Jr.
A Slow Start in 2007. Like many in Major League Baseball, Pujols got off to a terrible start in 2007, and finished the month of April with a .250/.343/.489, by far the worst month-long slump of his career. Despite the fact that he returned to normal for the rest of the year, he finished the season with significantly down-for-him numbers. The baseball world had seen the first chink in the armor of Albert Pujols.
Caution, but Brilliance. Tony LaRussa announced in spring training of 2008 that he would give Pujols plenty of rest in 2008 to save his elbow, going so far as to say he might even rest Pujols one game out of every series the Cardinals played. This appears to be a bit of misdirection on Tony’s part, as Pujols has yet to miss a game. As of Thursday, the Cardinals had played 16 games, and Pujols had put up the following numbers
|
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
2008 stats |
16 |
52 |
10 |
19 |
5 |
0 |
3 |
10 |
15 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
.365 |
.507 |
.635 |
1.142 |
2008 proj. |
160 |
520 |
100 |
190 |
50 |
0 |
30 |
100 |
150 |
40 |
20 |
0 |
.365 |
.507 |
.635 |
1.142 |
Car. 162 AVG |
162 |
601 |
125 |
199 |
44 |
2 |
42 |
127 |
89 |
67 |
6 |
3 |
.332 |
.421 |
.620 |
1.042 |
A Better Hitter? The impact of Pujols injury is clear not from the games played, as he is on pace to finish the season with 160, but he is only on pace for 520 at-bats, which reflects coming out of games in late innings, and the fact that in one game he played only as a pinch hitter. But take a look at the results! While he is on pace for significantly fewer homeruns, RBI, and runs than his career 162-game average would indicate, he is actually on pace for more doubles, and a higher average and on-base percentage. Furthermore, Pujols has increased his walks total and decreased his strikeout totals, both at an alarming rate.
Final Word. It is clear what is going on here: Albert Pujols is compensating for his injured elbow by taking fewer swings. While this is going to result in fewer of the eye-popping statistics – namely, homeruns, RBI, and runs – it also appears that Pujols is going to be on-base a lot more, and will be walking back to the dugout with his bat in his hand a lot less. Interestingly, surprisingly, improbably, it is pretty clear that Albert Pujols has adjusted his game to compensate for his injury, and it has made him a better player.
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