National League in Review

by SBRForum.com, Special to BaseballEvolution.com
May 11, 2012

Today we will look at what has transpired so far in the National League, our surprises, break out stars, what the MLB odds are for some of the greatest teams and what to expect coming down the stretch as the season continues on into the dog days of summer.

Matt Kemp and the Dodgers.

After some argued Matt Kemp was robbed of the MVP award last year, Kemp has certainly come out with a chip on his shoulder to begin the season. We are witnessing one of the hottest starts to a season in recent memory. Kemp has put up absolute monster numbers, and for the first time in decades, we may actually have a true candidate for the triple crown. Right now, Kemp is hitting .385 with 12 HR and 27 RBI with a .469 OBP. Before, pitchers were consistently able to get Kemp out as he could never lay off a slider or breaking ball that was low and outside.  Now that he is laying off those pitches, his approach is nearly flawless and it’s tough for pitchers to find any holes in his swing at all. Kemp stated before the season he was going to be the first 50/50 player (50 home runs, 50 stolen bases).  Although we think that is a bit out of reach, as crazy as it sounds we really do believe Kemp has a legitimate shot at the triple crown if he can stay healthy.

As far as the Dodgers overall, they held the best record in the big leagues for quite some time, but now Texas owns that title as they are 20-10 and LA is 20-11. The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West while the Giants remain 5 games back. With the distraction of Frank McCourt possibly going bankrupt in the offseason and the team up for sale, coupled with a suspect back end of the rotation, few would have predicted the Dodgers to get off to a start like this.

The starting rotation is lead by Cy Young and 22-game winnerClayton Kershaw and backed by Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang. Capuano has been a bright spot in the rotation, as he is 4-0 on the year with a 2.20 ERA, Ted Lilly is also doing his thing with a 4-0 record as well as an even better ERA of 1.41.

Outside of Kemp, Andre Either, and James Loney there are really not too many playmakers on the Dodgers ballclub. Dee Gordon is still very young; the same with Tony Gywnn Jr. The rest of the roster is made of of aging veterans, so if the Dodgers want to contend all year, they are definitely going to have to bring in another bat at the trade deadline and quite possibly another arm, as it is our opinion that back end of the rotation will not hold up.

Bryce Harper and the Nationals.

Phenom Bryce Harper made his MLB debut at just 19 years of age, and boy was it a dandy. In the box score it showed Harper went just 1-for-3 but it was so much more than that. Harper hit an absolute seed over the head of Matt Kemp for a double, than on a fly ball with a runner on third, threw a blazing bullet home that would hit the catcher square in the chest and would have had the runner out by a mile, but the catcher failed to hold on to the baseball. As if that were not enough, in a tie ball game in the top of the 9th, Harper hit a sac fly for the go ahead run. That is just astonishing for a 19-year old in his MLB Debut. In a recent game against the Phillies, Cole Hamels decided to drill Harper in the back.  Well, Harper went on to completely throw that in back in Hamels' face, as he reached third base and when Hamels went to make a pickoff move to 1B, Harper broke down the line and stole home plate. What a blast this kid is going to be to watch for the next 10-12 years.

Not just Harper, but all of the young Nationals prospects are coming together, playing great baseball as they sit in first place in the NL East at 18-12. Yet the are doing this without their best power hitter in Michael Morse and electrifying closer Drew Storen, as both are on the DL. The Nats are backed with one of the best starting rotations, led by perhaps the best young pitcher to come along in baseball in the past 10 years in Stephen Strasburg. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler fill out this impressive group.

With the Phillies struggling mightily and the Mets not having enough talent on their roster to sustain a winning record, we fully expect the Nats to compete for the division title with the Atlanta Braves. If they fail to lock up the division, they will certainly pick up a wild card spot. If you have not seen many Nationals ball games this year we recommend you do, as they are backed by two of the most anticipated players to be called up to the bigs in years in Strasburg and Harper.

Cardinals are not missing a beat without Albert Pujols.

After the Cardinals won the 2011 World Series, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan decided they had nothing left to accomplish and hung up their cleats. Then to make matters worse, Albert Pujols signed a 10 year contract for $254 million with the Angels. To put the icing on the cake,  staff ace Chris Carpenter was placed on the DL before the season began.

St Louis fans were in a state of panic and many assumed the Cardinals would not be able to contend this year, but that has not been the case. The Redbirds have not missed one beat as they lead the NL Central with one of the best records in baseball at 20-11.

The acquisition of Carlos Beltran has been a huge one, as he has seemed to found his old All-Star form, putting up monster numbers again: a .284 average 10 HR and 27 RBI. Beltran is right up there with  league leader Matt Kemp and in home runs and RBI.

Then you have David Freese, who is becoming a superstar in his own right, continuing his onslaught from last year's postseason into this season. Freese is hitting .312 with 7 HR and 26 RBI. With those two in the middle of the order, surrounded by Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, as crazy as this sounds, the Cardinals may actually be better right now without Pujols, as we all know how badly King Albert is struggling.

Just an amazing story the the team lost three core personnel considered their heart and soul in La Russa, Duncan, and Pujols and they have not been phased in the least bit. No one is going to want to play this team once the postseason rolls around.

Look for the Rockies to add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline and contend for the NL West.

Colorado owns a record of 13-17 and are 6.5 games back of the Dodgers, but they have not even played close to their full potential and we at SBRForum expect them to give the Dodgers a run for the money for the division crown as the season wears on.

Colorado possesses one of the most dangerous offenses in the game, as they rank 2nd in the NL overall backed by Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer, Todd Helton, and Ramon Hernandez. Colorado also leads the league in runs scored between the 7th and 9th innings, which is major crunch time and shows just how clutch they can be.

The problem so far has been the starting rotation, as they boast a terrible ERA of 5.48.  Their bullpen is their strong suit and possibly one of the best in the NL. Colorado's best pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, started the season on the DL but is close to making his return and he will give them a huge boost as he has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, it's just been a matter whether he can put it all together or not.

The team is loaded with young highly touted pitching prospects so if they can get a few of these guys to step up they'll be headed in the right direction and start ripping off huge winning streaks to give the division leaders a scare like we have so often see in the past. This should be the year they get it done, as the farm system is loaded with talent that they should be able to add later in the season. If the Rockies happen to fall too far behind and are not even contention, its quite possible we could see Jim Tracy shown the door.

Final Word

With all the newcomers in the Washington Nationals and their young studs, the Dodgers and Matt Kemp, and the fully revamped St. Louis Cardinals, it is going to be one fun, wild ride to see how the NL folds out the rest of the year. Don't miss a beat as this will be one of the most exciting NL pennant races we will have witnessed in the past few years.




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