by SBRForum.com, Special to BaseballEvolution.com
May 11, 2012
Today we
will look at what has transpired so far in the National League, our surprises,
break out stars,
what the MLB odds are for some of the greatest teams and what to expect
coming down the stretch as the season continues on into the dog days of summer.
Matt Kemp and the
Dodgers.
After some argued
Matt Kemp was robbed of the MVP award last year, Kemp has certainly come out
with a chip on his shoulder to begin the season. We are witnessing one of the
hottest starts to a season in recent memory. Kemp has put up absolute monster
numbers, and for the first time in decades, we may actually have a true
candidate for the triple crown. Right now, Kemp is hitting .385 with 12 HR and 27
RBI with a .469 OBP. Before, pitchers were consistently able to get Kemp out as
he could never lay off a slider or breaking ball that was low and outside.
Now
that he is laying off those pitches, his approach is nearly flawless and it’s
tough for pitchers to find any holes in his swing at all. Kemp stated before the
season he was going to be the first 50/50 player (50 home runs, 50 stolen bases).
Although we think that is a bit out of reach, as crazy as it sounds we really do
believe Kemp has a legitimate shot at the triple crown if he can stay healthy.
As far as the Dodgers
overall, they held the best record in the big leagues for quite some time, but
now Texas owns that title as they are 20-10 and LA is 20-11. The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West while the Giants
remain 5 games back. With the distraction of Frank McCourt possibly going
bankrupt in the offseason and the team up for sale, coupled with a suspect back end of the
rotation, few would have predicted the Dodgers to get off to a
start like this.
The starting rotation
is lead by Cy Young and 22-game winnerClayton Kershaw and backed by Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang. Capuano has been a
bright spot in the rotation, as he is 4-0 on the year with a 2.20 ERA, Ted Lilly
is also doing his thing with a 4-0 record as well as an even better ERA of
1.41.
Outside of Kemp,
Andre Either, and James Loney there are really not too many playmakers on the Dodgers ballclub. Dee Gordon is still very young; the same with Tony Gywnn Jr.
The rest of
the roster is made of of aging veterans, so if the Dodgers want to contend all
year, they are definitely going to have to bring in another bat at the trade
deadline and quite possibly another arm, as it is our opinion that back end of
the rotation will not hold up.
Bryce Harper and the
Nationals.
Phenom Bryce Harper
made his MLB debut at just 19 years of age, and boy was it a dandy. In the box
score it showed Harper went just 1-for-3 but it was so much more than that. Harper
hit an absolute seed over the head of Matt Kemp for a double, than on a fly ball
with a runner on third, threw a blazing bullet home that would hit the
catcher square in the chest and would have had the runner out by a mile, but the
catcher failed to hold on to the baseball. As if that were not enough, in a tie
ball game in the top of the 9th, Harper hit a sac fly for the go ahead run. That
is just astonishing for a 19-year old in his MLB Debut. In a recent game against the Phillies, Cole
Hamels decided to drill Harper in the back. Well, Harper went on to completely
throw that in back in Hamels' face, as he reached third base and when Hamels went to
make a pickoff move to 1B, Harper broke down the line and stole home plate.
What a blast this kid is going to be to watch for the next 10-12 years.
Not just Harper, but
all of the young Nationals prospects are coming together, playing great baseball
as they sit in first place in the NL East at 18-12. Yet the are doing this
without their best power hitter in Michael Morse and electrifying closer Drew Storen, as both are on the DL. The Nats are backed with one of the best starting
rotations, led by perhaps the best young pitcher to come along in baseball in the
past 10 years
in Stephen Strasburg. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler
fill out this impressive group.
With the Phillies
struggling mightily and the Mets not having enough talent on their roster to sustain
a winning record, we fully expect the Nats to compete for the division title
with the Atlanta Braves. If they fail to lock up the division, they will
certainly pick up a wild card spot. If you have not seen many Nationals ball
games this year we recommend you do, as they are backed by two of the most
anticipated players to be called up to the bigs in years in Strasburg and
Harper.
Cardinals are not
missing a beat without Albert Pujols.
After the Cardinals
won the 2011 World Series, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan decided they had nothing
left to accomplish and hung up their cleats. Then to make matters worse, Albert Pujols signed a 10 year contract for
$254 million with the Angels. To put the
icing on the cake, staff ace Chris Carpenter was placed on the DL before
the season began.
St Louis fans were in
a state of panic and many assumed the Cardinals would not be able to
contend this year, but that has not been the case. The Redbirds have not missed
one beat as they lead the NL Central with one of the best records in baseball at
20-11.
The acquisition of
Carlos Beltran has been a huge one, as he has seemed to found his old All-Star
form, putting up monster numbers again: a .284 average 10 HR and 27 RBI.
Beltran is right up there with league leader Matt Kemp and in home runs and RBI.
Then you have David Freese, who is becoming a superstar in his own right,
continuing his onslaught
from last year's postseason into this season. Freese is hitting .312 with 7 HR
and 26 RBI. With those two in the middle of the order, surrounded by Matt
Holliday and Lance Berkman, as crazy as this sounds, the Cardinals may actually
be better right now without Pujols, as we all know how badly King Albert is
struggling.
Just an amazing story
the the team lost three core personnel considered their heart and soul in La Russa, Duncan, and Pujols and they have not been phased in the least bit. No
one is going to want to play this team once the postseason rolls around.
Look for the Rockies
to add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline and contend for the NL West.
Colorado
owns a record of 13-17 and are 6.5 games back of the Dodgers, but they have not
even played close to their full potential and we at SBRForum expect them to give the
Dodgers a run for the money for the division crown as the season wears on.
Colorado possesses
one of the most dangerous offenses in the game, as they rank 2nd in the NL overall backed by Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer, Todd Helton, and
Ramon Hernandez. Colorado also leads the league in runs scored between the 7th
and 9th innings, which is major crunch time and shows just how clutch they can
be.
The problem so far
has been the starting rotation, as they boast a terrible ERA of 5.48. Their
bullpen is their strong suit and possibly one of the best in the NL. Colorado's
best pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, started the season on the DL but is close to
making his return and he will give them a huge boost as he has some of the
nastiest stuff in the game, it's just been a matter whether he can put it all together
or not.
The team is loaded
with young highly touted pitching prospects so if they can get a few of these
guys to step up they'll be headed in the right direction and start ripping off
huge winning streaks to give the division leaders a scare like we have so often
see in the past. This should be the year they get it
done, as the farm system is loaded with talent that they should be able to
add later in the season. If the Rockies happen to fall too
far behind and are not even contention, its quite possible we could see Jim
Tracy shown the door.
Final Word
With all the newcomers in the Washington Nationals and their young studs, the Dodgers and Matt
Kemp, and the fully revamped St. Louis Cardinals, it is going to be one fun, wild ride
to see how the NL folds out the rest of the year. Don't miss a beat as this will
be one of the most exciting NL pennant races we will have witnessed in the past few years.
This article was written by a guest contributor to BaseballEvolution.com. You can be one as well. Mail your articles to submissions@baseballevolution.com.