by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
May 16, 2009
Ivan Rodriguez is ruining his legacy. Not because he is a below
league-average hitter or a declining handler of pitchers, as
Asher suggests.
On the contrary, it has more to do with the teams he is choosing to play for
than it does his decline in playing ability. Ivan Rodriguez has a
well-justified reputation of being a winner who turns poor teams into playoff
contenders, but since the 2007 season, that legacy is beginning to fade.
In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, James lists some of the
highest position player winning percentages of all-time. Meaning, he takes
the winning percentage for each of the teams a player has played for, weighs
them by the player's games played in a season, and calculates winning
percentage for an individual player. The highest one he lists is Yogi Berra at .621. Of course, Yogi played most of his career with Mickey
Mantle (.590) Whitey Ford (.690), and a host of All-Star caliber players.
Indeed, this sort of statistic is more of the "gee, isn't that interesting"
variety than the "gee, isn't that revealing" variety, although that didn't
dissuade James from using it as a major point in his argument that Eddie Collins
was a better player than Rogers Hornsby was...
In a similar manner, Ivan Rodriguez has been well-known for bringing winning
ways with him wherever he goes. In 2003, he led a Florida Marlins squad
that finished with a losing record the previous season to a World Series win.
In 2004, his arrival in Detroit corresponded with a win increase of 29 from
their historically bad 2003 season. By 2006, he had guided the franchise
to its first winning season in 13 years and its only playoff appearance in 19
years.
Certainly, this is one missing component from James' analysis. We need
to know not only how good a team was with the player in question, but how that
team fared before and after his time in that uniform in order to estimate his overall
impact on winning. So consider, in I-Rod's career from 1991-2007, how the
Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, and Texas Rangers performed both with and
without Rodriguez:
The Rangers have only finished with a winning record once since letting
Rodriguez test the free agent waters, even though they did so five times with
the squat catcher around. The Marlins have only been able to
surpass 83 wins once in their non-I-Rod history. The Tigers never finished
with fewer than 70 wins with Rodriguez, but they did so in eight out of the 10
years preceding his arrival.
Of course, this analysis has its imperfections as well. the 1994 Tigers
featured none of the same players as the 2004 Tigers did. The newly-formed
expansion Marlins looked a great deal different than the star-studded Fish of
2003. The Rangers, who were third in total payroll in 2002, dipped to 21st
by 2007. We need to account for these variances; I-Rod might not have been
able to save the 1993 Marlins, 1996 Tigers, or 2007 Rangers. Those teams
weren't anything like the ones that Rodriguez played for.
So what happens when we examine just the one-, two-, and three-year spans of
I-Rod's absence that are nearest to his time with each club? His
contributions to the Marlins look a bit less impressive, however his value to
the Tigers and Rangers appears even higher:
Tigers |
W |
L |
Pct |
With I-Rod |
326 |
322 |
.503 |
Without |
866 |
1173 |
.425 |
1-Year |
43 |
119 |
.265 |
2-Year |
98 |
225 |
.303 |
3-Year |
164 |
321 |
.338 |
|
|
|
|
Marlins |
W |
L |
Pct |
With I-Rod |
91 |
71 |
.562 |
Without |
1021 |
1180 |
.464 |
1-Year |
162 |
162 |
.500 |
2-Year |
321 |
327 |
.495 |
3-Year |
478 |
493 |
.492 |
|
|
|
|
Rangers |
W |
L |
Pct |
With I-Rod |
940 |
938 |
.501 |
Without |
394 |
416 |
.486 |
1-Year |
71 |
91 |
.438 |
2-Year |
160 |
164 |
.494 |
3-Year |
239 |
247 |
.492 |
Of course, Mr. Rodriguez messed all of this up, didn't he? The 2008
Tigers fell so far short of expectations that he was traded to the New York
Yankees, who promptly failed to miss the playoffs for the first time in the Wild
Card era. The 2009 Astros are almost certainly going to become the third
Houston Astros team to finish with a losing record since 1992. Even if
Ivan's current success at the plate holds up for a full season, his legacy of improving every
team he graces with his presence is waning.
Or is it? The one aspect of I-Rod's contribution to winning that we
have not yet examined is on the single season level. On each team for
which Rodriguez has played, what was the team's record in contests in which he
started versus contests that he did not?
Year |
With I-Rod |
L |
PCT |
Without |
L |
PCT |
2009 |
14 |
13 |
.519 |
2 |
5 |
.286 |
2008 |
16 |
17 |
.485 |
73 |
56 |
.566 |
2008 |
36 |
36 |
.500 |
38 |
52 |
.422 |
2007 |
68 |
52 |
.567 |
20 |
22 |
.476 |
2006 |
80 |
53 |
.602 |
15 |
14 |
.517 |
2005 |
58 |
66 |
.468 |
13 |
25 |
.342 |
2004 |
61 |
71 |
.462 |
11 |
19 |
.367 |
2003 |
80 |
55 |
.593 |
11 |
16 |
.407 |
2002 |
46 |
57 |
.447 |
26 |
33 |
.441 |
2001 |
53 |
53 |
.500 |
20 |
36 |
.357 |
2000 |
40 |
46 |
.465 |
31 |
45 |
.408 |
1999 |
85 |
57 |
.599 |
10 |
10 |
.500 |
1998 |
82 |
61 |
.573 |
6 |
13 |
.316 |
1997 |
67 |
77 |
.465 |
10 |
8 |
.556 |
1996 |
81 |
65 |
.555 |
9 |
7 |
.563 |
1995 |
60 |
61 |
.496 |
14 |
9 |
.609 |
1994 |
45 |
51 |
.469 |
7 |
11 |
.389 |
1993 |
69 |
62 |
.527 |
17 |
14 |
.548 |
1992 |
57 |
55 |
.509 |
20 |
30 |
.400 |
1991 |
40 |
41 |
.494 |
45 |
36 |
.556 |
Total |
1138 |
1049 |
.520 |
398 |
461 |
.463 |
Since 1998 |
719 |
637 |
.530 |
276 |
346 |
.444 |
Amazing! 12 of the last 13 teams Ivan Rodriguez has played for
benefited from his presence. Since 1998, whenever Pudge started a game, his
teams have had a .530 winning percentage. Whenever his backup has started, the
team has won less than 45% of its games. Pudge may have been a bit
overrated early in his career due to his lack of offense, but he also may be
underrated now despite his declining offense.
So if Ivan Rodriguez hangs around for another five years providing middling
offense for unimpressive teams, don't let it fool you. I-Rod deserves his
reputation as a winning player, and the later stages of his career are more
productive than they appear at a quick glance.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Keith resides in Chicago, Illinois and can be reached at keith@baseballevolution.com.