by Keith Glab
Let me rephrase that.
A solid 39-year old pitcher who now must rely on his defense to get hitters out, is making the same amount
of money as one of the best hitting shortstops of all-time who just happens to be in his prime.
Something's Fishy (insert Marlins insult here)...
How about a 37-year old lefty specialist who averages less than 70 innings per year since 2000 (Rheal
Cormier) making more per year than baseball's third best hitting second baseman in terms of OPS (Todd
Walker)?
See where I'm going with this?
"But wait," you say. "Maybe the Cubs are just getting bargains due to the allure of Wrigley Field and Dusty
Baker, or the shrewdness of Jim Hendry."
Well, yes, the Cubs are having a nice offseason. Thank you for noticing. But there's more...
Armando Benitez, whom nobody trusted to close games as recently as 2003, but had a lovely 2004
season, is now one of baseball's highest paid closers at over $7 million per year. Contrast that with Tony
Womack, who couldn't throw a baseball as recently as 2003, but had a lovely 2004 season: He's making
$2 million a year.
Jeff Kent, arguably the best offensive second baseman in baseball today, is making less than Brad Radke,
who had never posted an ERA under 3.75 before 2004.
But Matt Morris... he's a bargain at $2.5 million, right? Well, if he reaches all of his incentives, he'll actually
earn over $7 million in 2005.
Heck, earlier in the offseason Paul Wilson signed a 2-year $8.2 million contract to stay in Cincinnati. I know
the Reds are desperate for pitching, but this is the same Paul Wilson who is 39-53 with a 4.71 ERA for his
career. He'll be 32 years old when the 2005 season opens.
So why are pitchers being overpaid? Who is to blame?
1) Traditional Baseball Thinking
Baseball is 90% pitching. Good pitching beats good hitting. The team with the best rotation has a huge
edge in the playoffs.
You've heard all of this nonsense before. In fact, you've probably still heard it from a baseball announcer
sometime during the 2004 season. But the alarming thing is that many GM's out there still believe in these
silly platitudes rather than the evidence of history; that offense is just as valuable as defense.
But it's not like GM's aren't using the correct statistics for evaluation. I mean, whether you use W-L record,
ERA, or K/BB ratio, Paul Wilson is a deficient pitcher. Whether you use batting average, OPS, or RBIs,
Garciappara and Kent are among the best offensive middle infielders ever. They should be making more
than twice what a deficient pitcher makes, no matter what measure you care to use.
2) The New York Mets
Frequently the culprits for driving up the salaries of players, the New York Mets really outdid themselves by
signing Kris Benson to a 3-year, $22.5 million deal before it had even sunk in that the Red Sox had won the
World Series. Now, all of the remaining free agent pitchers of Benson's caliber can expect $7 million per
season or more. Benson's credentials include a 4.59 ERA in the 435.2 innings since being rushed back
from his 2001 Tommy John operation. Of the remaining unsigned free agents, Paul Byrd, Matt Clement,
Kevin Milwood, Pedro Martinez, Carl Pavano, and Odalis Perez can all claim to be similar or greater
commodities. They should expect similar or greater contracts, and may become the next overpaid pitchers.
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