Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune - "Method to Predict Madness"
by Keith Glab 9/9/05
Phil Rogers' Formula for Success:
Team Balance - 40%
"Ranked in runs per game, batting average with men in scoring position, on-base percentage; starters' ERA; relievers' ERA; save percentage; double plays turned and fewest errors"
Pythagorean standings - 40%
"According to a plus-minus for runs scored and allowed"
Hottest teams - 20%
"Records since Aug. 1"
Phil's team rankings among the top six in each league fell as follows on September 8th:
AL: 1.A's 2.Angels 3. White Sox and Indians 5.Yankees 6.Red Sox
NL: 1.Cardinals 2.Braves 3.Marlins 4.Astros 5.Phillies and Mets
I only have seven major problems with his methodology:
1. The season isn't over
How can he use team records since August 1 when the season isn't over yet? Just because Oakland had been hot going into September 7 doesn't mean that they will be hot going into October 7. His team rankings have no meaning until the very end of the season.
2. The best teams aren't going all-out
Of course, it's unlikely that the Cardinals wil be "hot" going into October, since they'll be spending the last three weeks of the season resting their starters, auditioning prospects, and setting their rotation for the postseason. Does anyone want to argue that this puts the Cardinals at a disadvantage? If so, please examine the 1984 Tigers, who played .500 ball from June on, but coasted through the playoffs anyway due to their superior talent and healthy, rested roster. Rogers' system would penalize the Cardinals, or any other superior team that had a postseasson spot locked up early.
3. Strength of Schedule
Rogers forgot to account for the fact that Houston and St. Louis have played lots of games against Milwaukee, Chicago, Cinci and Pittsburgh while all of the NL East's intradivision games have come against teams with winning records. The teams in the NL East are the 2nd through 6th best teams in the NL, but don't have the records to show it because they continually beat up on one another.
Another schedule issue is that virtually all of Oakland's games over the last month come against quality teams while Cleveland, Boston, and New York are getting the scrubs of the AL. So in the unlikely event that Oakland makes the postseason at this point, they will probably not go in as a "hot" team, since they are going to struggle a bit against these tough opponents. That's a quirk of the schedule, not a fault of the A's.
4. Men in scoring position
I'm not sure whether clutch hitting exists or not, but ability to hit well with RISP almost certainly doesn't, and even if it does, it's such a small % ability big % random distribution that the skilll aspect won't affect a 5 or 7 game series one jot.
5. Pitching Composition
Should the Astros make the postseason, they have a huge advantage not accounted for in this system: the ability to sit Ezequiel Astacio and Wandy Rodriguez! Do you think anyone wants to face a Clemens-Pettitte-Oswalt rotation in October? Those three pitchers have combined to go 43-28 this year, a .606 W% compared to a .531 team W%. Most teams only need 3-4 good relievers in short series, which puts the Phillies and their dominant trio of Wagner, Madson, and Urbina at a significant advantage. Not that Rogers' methodology would reflect any of this.
6. Team Health
Looking at a team's runs scored and runs allowed do not tell the whole story. Oakland won't be too fearsome in the playoffs if Harden, Zito, Kotsay and Crosby don't return to health and form. The number of runs that the White Sox were scoring when Frank Thomas was in the lineup is irrelevant for our purposes here, since he's not going to perform for them come October. Conversely, Scott Podsednik has not started 31 games this year, mostly due to injury. The Sox are 16-15 in those games(.516) versus 72-41 when he's in the starting lineup (.637). He's going to start every playoff game Chicago plays, and that's huge because of the importance of
7. the ability to manufacture runs.
Yep, Podsednik gives the Sox a clear advantage by being able to steal bases off of potentially dominant pitchers such as Randy Johnson or Bartolo Colon. When these guys are on, you can't just wait for a three-run homer and expect to win. You need a guy like Scottie P to bunt for a single and then score without the aid of another hit. Why do you think that Oakland never wins a best-of-five series? Because they follow the Billy Beane Philosophy of maximizing run production with a total disregard for what the scoreboard dictates. They might outscore the yankees by fourteen runs in a five game series and lose the series because they don't know how to get that one extra run in a tight game. Oh, wait, that's precisely what happened a few years back.
But Rogers takes none of this into account when devising his formula for postseason success. I agree, Phil, that you were given an impossible task to perform. But instead of working hard to make a good show of it, you probably just phoned it in after ten minutes with a caculator and a keyboard.
But just in case it wasn't laziness or awe that produced such a ridiculous formula and article, we'll crown you as our September Bonehead.
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