National League Candidates

Edinson Volquez and Dan Haren each performed significantly worse in the second half of the season, but each of their seasonal earned run averages was lower than the difference between Jonathan Sanchez' second half ERA and first half ERA.  Sure, Sanchez missed a couple of starts in August Due to injury, but his downward spin began at the very start of July: he went 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA in July and 1-8 with a 7.23 ERA in a dozen starts after the end of June.  The good news for Jonathan Sanchez fans is that he had a 3.90 Fielding Independent ERA.  Add in the fact that he only allowed two unearned runs to score and the possibility that he is only 26 years old, and you might figure that Sanchez' 2009 ERA could well be in the low-4s despite his late 2008 plunge.

Owings went 0-2 with a 9.77 ERA in five spring training starts.  After winning his first four regular season starts and posting a 2.42 ERA, he became the poster boy for this year's Spring Stats Mean Nothing campaign.  Owings then exhibited some mechanical issues in late May, with confidence issues quick to follow.  He missed a start with back pain and then went on the disabled list with shoulder soreness.  He did toss three flawless relief outings before being demoted to Tucson and traded to Cincinnati as one of the players to be named later in the Adam Dunn deal.  The Reds did not trust Owings to pitch last year, but they did allow him four pinch hit at bats.  The Reds had three fifth starters combine for an ERA of 7.61 last year, so a healthy Owings may be the key to Cincinnati competing next year.

While both 26-year olds might have bounce-back 2009 seasons, there's little doubt that they are the best Mark Redman candidates in the National League for 2008.  Who takes home the hardware?  I'm going to give it to Sanchez, seeing as how he pitched very nearly a full season.  Owings only really had two good four-game stretches all year and did not have a chance to rebound in the second half due to injuries and odd trade loopholes.   Sanchez was making some Giants fans forget about Matt Cain in the first half before falling on his face like a certain pitcher with the initials M.R.

American League Candidates

Combine these two pitchers with teammate Bobby Crosby's narrow miss of the 2008 Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Award, and you get a pretty good idea of why the Oakland A's won only 38% of their games after June.  While Eveland's second half appears worse than Smith's at first glance, a closer examination reveals that Eveland's K/BB ratio actually improved as the season wore on while Smith went from better than 2:1 through May to worse than 1:1 from June onwards.  It's difficult to choose between these two chokers.  Fortunately, they join Crosby in runner-up territory so that I do not have to.

Past AL Redman Winners Year Player Team 2006 Jose Contreras CHW 2007 Jeremy Bonderman Det 2008 Garrett Olson Bal

Olson was 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA on June 5th.  He went 4-9 with an 8.05 ERA thereafter.  For some reason, the Padres really want his 89 MPH fastball and the Cubs were willing to risk aquiring him just to improve their chances of landing Jake Peavy this spring.  The real buzz around Olson surrounds his slider, but when batters put that pitch into play last year, they batted .352.  This former 48th-overall draft pick has bust written all over him, and now he has Mark Redman written all over his 2008 season.   

How did the legend himself perform in 2008?  Well, Mark Redman posted a 7.54 ERA in 10 pre-All-Star break games with the Rockies, so bad that he did not even have a chance to pitch in the second half.  I shudder to think of what those second half numbers might have looked like.