Division
Series
San
Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
Padres:
82-80 684 RS(13th) 726 RA(8th(t))
Cardinals:
100-62 805RS(2nd) 634RA(2nd)
This
is the most lopsided Divisional Series matchup of all-time. Not only are the teams 18 games apart in the
W/L column, but they should be even further apart. San Diego projects to a 75-win team using Pythagoras, and they
were three games under .500 outside of the pathetic NL West. These Padres are the worst team to enter the
postseason since... well, perhaps ever.
So
what hope does this floundering team have against what has been the best team
in baseball over the past two seasons?
None,
really. Normally, Jake Peavy (13-7 2.88
216 K) would give this team a decided advantage in a short series, but since
he’s matched up against Chris “Duncanclay” Carpenter (21-5 2.83 213K), all he
does is give the team a shot at keeping Game 1 close.
After
Peavy, none of the San Diego starters have an ERA under 4.40. After Carpenter, the Cardinals still have
four pitchers who each made 30+ starts this year and each possess an ERA under
4.15. The one edge that the Padres have
is their unhittable bullpen, which led them to a 29-20 record in one-run
games. Unfortunately, these games are
going to get out of hand before the bullpen can bail the Padres out.
Brian
Giles is the Padres offense, much like Paul Konerko, Morgan Ensberg, and Vlad
Guerrero represent their respective playoff teams’ offense. The trouble is that the White Sox, Astros,
and Angels all have top-five defenses in terms of runs allowed. They can afford to play small-ball at the
bottom of their order and hope for their big guy to make some noise, since they
know that a couple of runs will win them games very frequently. The Padres have a guy in Dave Roberts who is
having an unheralded year with a .784 OPS and 23 SB, but the nuisance he
provides on-base isn’t as unsettling when the Padres are already trailing by
3-4 runs.
Some
good news is that Giles is used to not having much protection in his
lineup. The bad news is that he still
isn’t the best type of hitter for a weak lineup. Konerko, Ensberg, and Vlad can each carry their offenses by swinging
early in the count to drive in runs.
Giles’ patience would make him a superstar with 1 or 2 other good
hitters around him, but as it is he’s only driven in 100 runs once during the
past five seasons. Take note of this,
since these are the most negative words I will ever write about plate patience
or Brian Giles.
And
Cardinal fans, don’t fret. I’m only
focusing on the Padres since I know that I’ll have a chance to write about your
team next week in my Championship Series Preview.
Prediction:
Cardinals in four