|
2004 World Series Preview
By Keith Glab
Probably the most exciting LCS in at least five years leads to high expectations for the 2004 World Series. On the surface, it appears that the Cardinals have had the more impressive regular season, while the pioneer Boston Red Sox have made a bigger splash in the postseason. However, for a deeper analysis, here is a positional comparison of the two teams:
Catcher Red Sox: Jason Varitek Cardinals: Mike Matheny
Obviously, Boston has a huge edge here offensively, but how about on defense? Well, over the past 2 years, Matheney has allowd seven passed balls, made just one error, and has thrown out only 28.4% of basestealers. Varitek had both eleven errors and eleven passed balls, plus only nabbed one in every four would-be basestealer. Matheny definitely has the defensive edge, but it’s not as big as people make it out to be. Big Edge Red Sox
First Base Red Sox: Kevin Millar Cardinals: Albert Pujols Kevin Millar had a remarkable 1.018 OPS at home, but just a .689 road mark in 2004. Both Pujols’ home and road OPS’s were greater than 1.018. Big Edge Cardinals
Second Base Red Sox: Mark Bellhorn Cardinals: Tony Womack
Two opposite types of players. One puts the ball in play and trusts his speed to disrupt the defense, and the other bides his time and trusts the pitcher to make a mistake. Despite differences in philosophies, both are quite effective players. Edge Even
Third Base Red Sox: Bill Mueller Cardinals: Scott Rolen
Mueller didn’t compete for the batting title this year, but he’s still a super effective player on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, few players can compare favorably with Scott Rolen this year. Big Edge Cardinals
Shortstop Red Sox: Orlando Cabrera Cardinals: Edgar Renteria
Orlando Cabrera is one of the keys to the series for the Red Sox, as he has drubbed Cardinals pitching for a .326 batting average and .547 slugging percentage over 84 career at bats. No one wants to bring up the negatives of a 105- win season, so Renteria’s disappointing hitting (.728 OPS) and lackluster baserunning (17 for 28) have gone largely unnoticed. Edge Even
Left Field Red Sox: Manny Ramirez Cardinals: Reggie Sanders
Sanders has churned out another productive year, but Manny has put up numbers that make him a favorite for AL MVP honors. Big Edge Red Sox
Center Field Red Sox: Johnny Damon Cardinals: Jim Edmonds
Damon was one of the best leadoff hitters of 2004, but his five outfield errors were the most he's had since leaving Kansas City back in 2000. He did nothing in the ALCS until dominating game seven. Edmonds, on the other hand, has been the best center fielder in baseball for the past five years. Big Edge Cardinals
Right Field Red Sox: Trot Nixon Cardinals: Larry Walker
After a superb September, Trot Nixon has struggled mightily in October. He really is a solid player, somewhere inbetween the extremes that we’ve seen of him lately. As much as Walker loves to hit in Coors Field, he’s built nicely for Fenway Park. He’s hit three doubles in nine career at-bats there. Big Edge Cardinals
Designated Hitter Red Sox: David Ortiz Cardinals: John Mabry
John Mabry has quietly posted an .867 OPS this year; he’s really not so much worse than Ortiz. One of the more interesting strategies to look for in the series is whether or not Ortiz starts at first for the NL home games. While Boston would hate to deprive their lineup of him, Ortiz is a defensive liability, which could really hurt sinkerballer Derek Lowe in game 4. Also, Terry Francona might like the option of pinch hitting Ortiz in the most important situation of the game in order to best utilize his clutch hitting prowess. Edge Red Sox
Bench Red Sox: Doug Meintkewicz, Pokey Reese, Gabe Kapler, Dave Roberts Cardinals: Marlon Anderson, Hector Luna, So Taguchi, Roger Cedeno
The Red Sox have a very situational bench. Kapler can hit breaking balls, Roberts is an elite pinch runner. Mientkiewicz and Reese make excellent defensive substitutes. The Cardinals have two backup second basemen and two backup left fielders, none of whom can hit, run, or field much better than any Cardinal starter they might replace. Edge Red Sox
Game 1 Starters Red Sox: Tim Wakefield Cardinals: Woody Williams
Woody has been masterful in the postseason, as he is the prototype LaRussa/Duncan Mediocre Veteran Who Suddenly Excels. Tim Wakefield has struggled a bit against the non-Marlon Anderson portion of the Cardinals’ hitters, particularly Jim Edmonds (1.095 OPS in 37 at bats). Edge Cardinals
Game 2 Starters Red Sox: Curt Schilling Cardinals: Jason Marquis
A lot of people fail to realize that Marquis had the best regular season ERA of any of the World Series starters next to Curt Schilling. Curt would have the edge if his health were a certainty, but as it is, Edge Even.
Game 3 Starters Red Sox: Pedro Martinez Cardinals: Matt Morris
Matt Morris could be in trouble here, since he allowed 35 home runs during the regular season to National League teams. Even without a DH, Boston has more thunder than Morris is used to seeing. Expect him to allow 2 homers, making his walk total key. Who knows what to expect from Pedro now that Terry Francona has needlessly destroyed Martinez’ pitching schedule? Expect a win. Edge Red Sox.
Game 4 Starters Red Sox: Derek Lowe Cardinals: Jeff Suppan
These two starters have both overachieved in the postseason so far, but Lowe has had an ERA over 6 away from Fenway for two straight years now. Suppan gets the better of this one. Edge Cardinals.
Middle Relievers Red Sox: Bronson Arroyo, Alan Embree, Mike Timlin, Curt Lescanic, Ramiro Mendoza Cardinals: Danny Haren, Julian Tavarez, Ray King, Kiko Calero, Cal Eldred
Each club has but one left hander to use against their opponents’ lefty-laden lineup. Decisions about when to use Embree and King could prove big in this series. The Cardinals have a strong bullpen, but Boston’s relievers were incredible in the LCS. Particularly with Bronson Arroyo available in long relief, the Red Sox are the stronger group. Edge Red Sox.
Closer Red Sox: Keith Foulke Cardinals: Jason Isringhausen
Both are 32 years old, both have had sub-3.00 ERA’s for at least four years, and both have marginal playoff experience. Edge Super Even
Pick: Cardinals in six. But if the Red Sox can force a game seven, they will win it behind Pedro.
|