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September: Time to Make Predictions
by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com September 9, 2008
Will the inexperienced Rays continue to struggle down the stretch and let the
Red Sox overtake them in the division? Can the Chicago White Sox still win
the AL Central without Carlos Quentin? Can the Mets hang on without Billy
Wagner? Who prevails: Adam Dunn's Diamondbacks or Manny Ramirez' Dodgers?
Only the eight playoff teams remain above the Line of Death as we reveal the
Baseball Evolution Power Rankings for the final time this season.
In a way, it is bold to make playoff predictions with nearly three weeks
remaining in the season. In another, it's pretty chicken to have not made
them at the beginning of September, having waited for the weekend's Mets/Phillies
and Dodgers/D-backs series to finish and gotten news that key stretch players
Carlos Quentin and Billy Wagner would each miss the rest of the regular season.
The dust having settled, we do see a much clearer picture of who the
favorites are. Nearly as important as a team's current record at this
point is their remaining schedule. For instance, the White Sox and Twins'
respective schedules doomed the Sox even before Carlos Quentin and Paul Konerko
went down. To that effect, we are listing the split of remaining games
for contending teams in our rankings.
So if you want to be surprised at the end of the season, stop reading here.
If you'd like to know which eight teams will continue to play in October, read
on and feel free to comment.
Rank | Team | Comments | Prev |
1 | | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim NYY, Sea, @Oak, @Tex, @Sea, Tex | Overall Record: 87-56 (.608) Bottom of the lineup looks anemic; they need Kendrick back | 1 |
2 | | Boston Red Sox TB, Tor, @TB, @Tor, Cle, NYY | Record: 85-58 (.594) Good thing they held on to Coco Crisp (.770 OPS vs. Ellsbury's .690) | 9 |
3 | | Tampa Bay Rays @Bos, @NYY, Bos, Min, @ Bal, @Det | Record: 85-57 (.599) They won't win the East due to inadequate offense, not inexperience | 4 |
4 | | Chicago Cubs @Stl, @Hou, Mil, Stl, @NYM, @ Mil | Record: 86-57 (.601) Tough remaining schedule; Harden and Big Z had better be healthy | 2 |
5 | | Milwaukee Brewers Cin, @Phi, @CHC, @Cin, Pit, CHC | Record: 82-62 (.569) The bullpen is all that stands between them and elite status | 11 |
6 | | Minnesota Twins KC, @Bal, @Cle, @TB, CHW, KC
| Record: Min 78-65 (.545) Will Morneau snipe another MVP Award from Mauer? | 3 |
7 | | Philadelphia Phillies Fla, Mil, @Atl, @Fla, Atl, Was | Record: 79-65 (.549) 3rd fewest runs allowed in the NL, actually | 5 |
13 | | Los Angeles Dodgers @SD, @Col, @Pit, SF, SD, @SF | Overall Record: 73-71 (.507) No one on this team has 80 RBI yet; Ethier just reached 20 HR | 8 |
---------------- Line of Death! -------------- |
8 | | Toronto Blue Jays @CHW, @Bos, Bal, Bos, NYY, @Bal | Record: 77-66 (.538) Hmm, maybe Adam Dunn wouldn't have been a terrible addition after all | 15 |
9 | | New York Mets Was, Atl, @Was, @Atl, CHC, Fla
| Record: 80-63 (.559) Santana/Pelfrey (not Martinez) would be devastating if they make the playoffs | 6 |
10 | | Chicago White Sox Tor, Det, @NYY, @KC, @Min, Cle | Record: 80-63 (.559) Griffey's swing takes longer than a Mark Buehrle inning pitched | 12 |
11 | | Houston Astros Pit, CHC, @Fla, @Pit, Cin, Atl | Overall Record: 77-67 (.535) Looks like Ed Wade deserves a collective apology from the world
| 22 |
12 | | St. Louis Cardinals CHC, @Pit, @Cin, @CHC, Az, Cin | Record: 77-66 (.538) Adam Wainwright has 1.78 ERA in four starts since DL stint | 13 |
14 |  | New York Yankees @LAA, TB, CHW, Bal, @Tor, @Bos | Record: 76-68 (.528) This 4th-place squad may be better than 2000 World Series Champs
| 7 |
15 | | Arizona Diamondbacks @SF, Cin, SF, @Col, @Stl, Col | Record: 71-72 (.497) Haren's predictable post-AS ERA of 4.76 typifies pitching collapse | 10 |
16 | | Cleveland Indians Overall Record: 70-73 (.490)
Hindsight being 20-20, should they have kept Sabathia?
| 26 |
17 | | Florida Marlins Overall Record: 72-72 (.500) This offense leads baseball in strikeouts: 85 more than Arizona | 14 |
18 | | Detroit Tigers Overall Record: 70-75 (.483) Miggy C has .628 SLG since the break | 18 |
19 | | Colorado Rockies Overall Record: 67-77 (.465) Coolstandings.com still gives them a 2% shot at the NL West crown | 17 |
20 | | Texas Rangers Overall Record: 70-74 (.486) Brandon McCarthy is their only pitcher with even a hint of upside | 16 |
21 | | Cincinnati Reds Overall Record: 65-79 (.451) Helicopter Patterson has 309 at bats and an OPS+ of 47 | 20 |
22 | | San Francisco Giants Overall Record:63-80 (.441) Hitters are slugging .315 against Tim Lincecum | 28 |
23 | | Baltimore Orioles Overall Record: Bal 64-79 (.448)
Aubrey Huff is having the best season you don't know about | 23 |
24 | | Kansas City Royals Overall Record: 61-81 (.430) Yawn. | 19 |
25 | | Oakland Athletics Overall Record: 66-78 (.458) Jack Cust is their only player with an OPS over .740
| 25 |
26 | | Pittsburgh Pirates Overal Record: 60-83 (.420) 10-25 since the Jason Bay trade; fans losing patience | 21 |
27 | | Atlanta Braves Overall Record: 62-82 (.431) Still waiting on a 1-run road victory this year | 24 |
28 | | Seattle Mariners Overall Record: 56-86 (.394)
Brandon Morrow gives team hope for tomorrow | 27 |
29 | | San Diego Padres Overall Record: 56-88 (.389) Peavy's season is reminiscent of Randy Johnson, 2004 | 29 |
30 | | Washington Nationals Overall Record: 56-88 (.389)
Nice win streak. You are now only a mild embarrassment to MLB | 30 |
Questions? Concerns? Comments? Keith lives in Chicago, IL, and can be reached at keith@baseballevolution.com.
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