By Keith Glab 7/11/05

Keith’s Pre-Season Prediction: 81-81 (8^th in the NL)

So far in 2005, the Pirates have had an up-and down season. They had two stretches of winning 9 of 12 games, but also three stretches of losing five in a row. Jason Bay has managed to avoid a sophomore slump to say the least, but Oliver Perez has gone from the most exciting young pitcher in the NL to the main reason that the Buccos have a losing record.

Here are the top five reasons that the Pirates will still finish the season at .500:

5. Oliver was righting his ship before his injury

After a 15-day hiatus between starts in May, Oliver Perez has gone 5-1 with a 4.66 ERA, striking out 52 and walking 26 in 46.1 IP. These numbers don’t even approach his dominant 2004 form, and he’s still giving up homers at a Franklinesque rate, but Oliver now seems able to give the Pirates a chance to win every time he’s out there. Unfortunately after his start on June 26^th, Perez broke his toe kicking a cart in disgust. Perhaps this will give him another chance to work on his mechanics with pitching coach Spin Williams and once again exponentially improve his performance after the brief layoff.

4. The Pirates have a soft 2^nd half schedule

There are only four NL teams that went into the All-Star Break more than two games over .500. The Pirates only play 14 of their remaining 75 games against such teams. They have 17 games against Colorado and Cincinnati, each of whom entered the break playing sub-.400 ball. They also have only four series remaining against NL East teams, which are arguably the 2^nd-6^th best teams in the league. Any way you want to look at it, the next 75 games look very manageable for Pittsburgh.

3. Craig Wilson is healthy and vigorous

Last year, in the first full time duty of his career, big Craig Wilson had this stat line through May:

This is how he performed the rest of the way:

Clearly, Craig was not used to the wear and tear of playing every day, and fizzled out exhausted after an amazing start. Well, Wilson has unwillingly rested most of the first half due to a broken finger, and should be strong for the next 75 games even if Lloyd McClendon decides to use him every day, which is unlikely, given the Pirates’

2. Glut of offensive weapons

That’s right. A healthy Craig Wilson allows Jason Bay to move to center field (where he made a spectacular play on Sunday, by the way). The Pirates are now deep enough offensively and versatile enough defensively to create favorable matchups for their hitters. Here’s how their lineups could look:

Now Lloyd McClendon may not elect to use optimal lineups such as these, but he now has the power and flexibility to not make such gaffes as starting Ward against lefties (83 AB, .562 OPS) or Sanchez against righties (126 AB, .589 OPS).

1. ZACH DUKE!!!

---Bastardization of a mid-90’s dance song

---Chris Kline, Baseball America

Some facts about Pirates southpaw Zach Duke:

• Voted #4 Prospect in the California League by Baseball America in 2004
• Voted best Pirates prospect in 2005 by Baseball America in 2005
• Voted best control and best changeup among Pirates prospects by BA in 2005
• His curveball is better than his changeup, and he has a low-mid 90’s fastball
• Topped all of the Minor Leagues in ERA with a combined 1.46 in 2004
• Finished with a combined WHIP under 1 that year
• Led all of the Minor Leagues in wins (12) when called up the Pirates on July 1, 2005
• His professional K/BB numbers as of this writing are 225/55
• He’s just 22 years old!

Zach Duke isn’t the sole savior of this franchise, but rather a symbol of its future: Soon Ian Snell, John Van Benschoten, and a host of killer prospects will join the young nucleus already in place for Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Mark Redman, Dave Williams, Kip Wells, and Josh Fogg each allow less than one earned run per two innings pitched. With a spark of excitement like Zach Duke as an emotional ignition, and the likelihood of Oliver Perez being able to take his time and return near his 2004 form, expect these Pirates to hit the .500 mark by the end of the season.

And don’t be shocked when they contend in 2006.

Keith is a Pirates fan. Fortunately, he didn’t let this bias show at all in the writing of this piece. Congratulate him by emailing keith@baseballevolution.com.