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2005 Record: 83-79
(
2005 Runs Scored:
717
2005 Runs Allowed:
732
Expected 2005
Record: 79-83
What
the Florida Marlins team is: young, inexperienced, and lacking depth. What this Florida Marlins team isn’t:
anything like the 1998 Marlins club that lost 108 games.
Analysts
everywhere saw the names of the players that
2005 Starters: Paul LoDuca,
Matt Treanor
Projected 2006 Starters: Miguel Olivo,
Josh Willingham
In LoDuca, the Marlins allegedly lost their Soul, as he posted a catcher’s ERA a full run lower than backup Matt Treanor did. However, they also lost the catcher who allowed the fourth most stolen bases in the game last season and slugged less than .380 during his Marlins tenure.
Runners attempt to steal on Olivo’s arm less than half as often as they do Loduca’s, and his cERA for Padres pitchers last year was even lower than LoDuca’s was for the similarly-talented Marlins staff. He’s shown flashes of quality hitting, but also extended periods of sucking at the plate. Backup Josh Willingham is probably the most talented offensive catcher in the game today. More on him later.
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| For those who don't know what Jacobs looks like... |
2005 Starters: Carlos Delgado
Projected 2006 Starters: Mike Jacobs, Wes Helms
Quiz: Out of Mike Jacobs, Carlos Delgado, Albert Pujols, Derrek Lee, Andruw Jones, and Barry Bonds, who had the highest SLG in
2005? It was Mike Jacobs, with a .710
mark in 100 at bats. Now I’m not saying
that Jacobs will pace the NL in slugging over a full season, or even that he
will outperform Carlos Delgado this season (he “only” slugged .589 in AA last
year). However, Jacobs should be a 30+
HR threat for the next decade or so, and he represents a prime example of the
excellent young players acquired by
Second Base
2005 Starters: Luis Castillo, Damian Easley
Projected 2006 Starter: Dan Uggla
In
December, Futurebacks.com rated Uggla the 16th best prospect in the stacked
Diamondbacks organization before they lost him in the rule V draft. Uggla has slugged
over .500 in two out of his last three minor league seasons. I’m not telling you to pick him up in your
fantasy league, but just to bear in mind that most people are making fun of him
because his name is Uggla, not because he can’t play.
2005 Starters: Mike Lowell
Projected 2006 Starters: Miguel Cabrera, Wes Helms
Our good friend The Fielding Bible shows that Miggy C allowed 11 more runs than the average left fielder did last year, but that he comported himself as a league-average third baseman during his 30 games played there. Solution: make Cabrera the starting third baseman. But even if he is forced to man the outfield due to the Marlins’ lack of depth there, Wes Helms will certainly give the Fish more offensively than Mike Lowell did last year.
2005 Starters: Alex Gonzalez
Projected 2006 Starter: Hanley Ramirez
Hanley
was an uber-prospect for the Red Sox before slumping
to a .385 SLG at AA last year. He’s just
22, and the fact that he was not able to succeed at AA should clue the Marlins
in that he’s not quite ready for the Majors.
That being said, it’s hard to imagine him providing significantly less
offense than Alex Gonzalez, whose defense was only average over the past three
years. Ramirez should at least prove an
upgrade in that defensive aspect.
2005 Starters: Miguel Cabrera, Juan Pierre,
Juan Encarnacion,
Projected 2006 Starters: Jeremy Hermidia,
Chris Aguila, Josh Wilingham,
Eric Reed, Cabrera
Oddly
enough, the success of this outfield depends greatly on how well catcher Miguel
Olivo can hit, and how well third basemen Wes Helms
can field. If they can perform alright
in part-time roles, it would allow either Miguel Cabrera or Josh Willingham to
start in left field opposite the game’s best hitting prospect in Jeremy Hermedia.
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A blurred future for Willingham? |
I
cannot decide whether Chris Aguila is a quadruple-A
player, or
Projected 2006 Front Three: Willis, Brian Moehler, Justin Vargas
Perhaps
the most devastating losses suffered by
Brian
Moehler is an underrated little control guy who can
succeed in the right environment. We’ll
have to see how well this young defense clicks in tracking down all of the
balls that he’s going allow into play.
After
pitching just 19 innings above A-ball, Vargas understandably had some control
issues in the majors last year (3.77 BB/9).
Expect control numbers nearer to his 2.46 BB/9 in the minors, and nearly
a strikeout per inning.
Other 2005 Starters: Brian Moehler, Justin Vargas, Al Leiter,
Ismael Valdez
Other Possible 2006
Starters: Sergio
Mitre, Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco
Simply
not having Antique Al Leiter and Dodger Dog Valdez as
rotation options makes the back of the rotation stronger than last year. The fact that they have at least five quality
high-level prospects battling for two rotation spots also helps. In terms of quality options behind their #3
starter, this could be the deepest rotation in the NL East.
2005 Top Relievers: Todd Jones, Guillermo Mota, Jim Mecir, Nate Bump
Projected 2006 Top
Relievers: Joe
Borowski, Bump, Todd Wellemeyer,
Reynel Pinto
The
Marlins have no fewer than five ex-Cubs on their pitching staff…make of that
what you will. Personally, I think that JoBo is finally ready to return to his 2002-2003 self. He’s finally healthy again, and showed
flashes of brilliance on and off last season.
He’ll have to do well, because there’s nothing behind him except a Bump,
a Well, and whoever loses the battle for the back end of the rotation.
Final Word:
Speaking
of the Cubs, let’s think about the Marlins in terms of them. Their offenses should be similar…that is, if
the Cubs clone Derrek Lee and Aramis
Ramirez and put them at the outfield corners.
Seriously, Cabrera, Jacobs, Willingham, and Hermedia
don’t need to have career years to be considered among the most dangerous
murderer’s rows in the NL. Their clout
should compensate for some of the hit-or-miss question marks dotted across the
rest of the lineup.
In
terms of pitching, both teams have one reliable workhorse guy (Willis/Zambrano), one crafty veteran (Maddux/Moehler),
and a bunch of what ifs. What if Prior and Wood come back strong for the Cubs? What if two of
So
the Marlins have much better offensive weapons, slightly worse pitching, plus
probably a better defense by default. I
realize that not many people are saying that the Cubs are playoff-bound, but I
haven’t seen even the most jaded Cubs fan (Asher?) pick the Cubs for triple-digit
losses. The Marlins are almost
universally picked for last place and less than 65 wins.
So, you heard it here first. The Marlins will not finish last in the NL East. They will not approach 100 losses. In fact, if their guys mature quickly enough, they could hit the .500-mark and third place. In other words, they could perform just as well as they did last year.
