by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
March 24, 2007
2006 Record: 67-95 (5th Place NL Central Division)
2006 Runs Scored: 691
2006 Runs Allowed: 794
Pythagorean 2006 Record: 71-91
I've predicted the Pittsburgh Pirates to win 239 games over the past three
seasons. In reality, they've only managed 206. That means I miss by
an average of eleven wins per season. Not good.So is this the year I
finally take a sip of realigh tea and admit that the Pirates will never
significantly eclipse 70 wins in a season? Sorry, I can't do that.
Not now that the Pirates have finally committed to young players rather than
rifling through other team's trash bins and signing any bum they find to an
eight-figure contract.
Catcher
2006 Starter -
Ronny Paulino
Projected 2007 Starter
- Paulino
Although Ronny Paulino is the most promising Pirate catcher since Jason
Kendall, he hasn't had much competition in that regard. He is absolutely
not the .310 hitter he claimed to be last season, and his throwing arm is just
average. More than anything, the Pirates appreciate how well Paulino
worked with a very young pitching staff last year. If he really does
benefit the staff in that regard, then Paulino is a useful player.
First Base
2006 Starters -
Sean Casey, Craig Wilson
Projected 2007 Starter
- Adam LaRoche, Brad Eldred
PNC Park is one of the most difficult venues to hit home runs as a
left-handed batter. LaRoche should nevertheless approach last year's
breakout power numbers, because he wasn't hitting many cheapies. Only 16
players had a longer average distance for their home runs than LaRoche did last
season.
Brad Eldred has played himself into a roster spot with a monster spring.
Listed at 275 pounds, he would become the heaviest outfielder in major league
history should he find playing time out there. His greatest use to the
Pirates will be in spelling LaRoche against southpaws, however, as the ex-Brave
has struggled to a .228 career average against lefties.
Second Base
2006 Starter -
Jose Castillo
Projected 2007 Starter
- Freddy Sanchez
His first two years in the league, Jose Castillo was the absolute best in
baseball at turning the double play. He appeared to be the second coming
of Bill Mazeroski. Last season, no second baseman threw away more balls on
potential twin-killings than did Castillo. Jack Wilson called him out for
poor conditioning and lackadaisical play, prompting the installation of batting
champion Freddy Sanchez at second base and the relegation of Castillo to the
super-sub role. Sanchez might not hit over .300 again this season, but he
should provide steady up-the-middle defense for a pitching staff that's going to
allow a lot of balls into play.
Third Base
2006 Starters -
Joe Randa, Freddy Sanchez
Projected 2007 Starter
- Jose Bautista
The evolution of Joe Randa to Jose Bautista at third base might be the most
encouraging event for the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise in the past 15 seasons.
It signifies an understanding that young, low-average hitters with secondary
abilities are more valuable than old, washed up, empty-average hitters.
This may seem like an obvious adage, but after years of overpaying the likes of
Ed Sprague, Pat Mears, Mike Benjamin, Derek Bell, Jose Hernandez, Jeromy Burnitz,
Sean Casey, and Randa, this is a hallmark moment for the Pirates. Instead
of signing veteran placeholders to multi-million dollar deals, the organization
is finally trusting in its young talent.
Shortstop
2006 Starter -
Jack Wilson
Projected 2007 Starter
-
Wilson
Speaking of idiotic contracts, how about the 3-year $20 million deal the
Pirates gave Jack Rabbit after he failed to reach base 30% of the time in 2005?
This had the trickle-down effect of making the Pirates trade away shortstop
Brent Lillibridge, one of the most promising young shortstops in the game.
Low-ceiling Brian Bixler is now heir apparent to Wilson, whose defense is
predictably declining due to age.
It is some consolation that Wilson remains an above average defender because
he was just that good in the 2004-2005 seasons, and that the Lillibridge deal
brought LaRoche into the fold.
Utility
2006 Starters - Sanchez, Jose Bautista
Projected 2007 Starter
-
Castillo
Castillo is a better player than what he showed last season, but he also
won't anchor the team the way he was somehow supposed to after his decent 2005
season. The Pirates do need him, though, since they don't appear to have
any other backup skill infielders on their 40-man roster.
Outfield
2006 Starters - Jason Bay, Chris Duffy, Jeromy Burnitz, Nate McLouth
Projected 2007 Starters - Bay, Duffy, McLouth, Xavier Nady
If Chris Duffy can strike a midpoint between his .341 average in '05 and his
.255 average in '06, he will prove quite a useful player. He stole 26 bags
in 27 attempts last year, and plays exemplary defense. The acquisition of
Nady from the Mets recalls memories of the Ty Wigginton trade, and leads me to
believe that he won't develop into a star. Yet between Nady, the
ready-to-finally-exhibit-his-promise McLouth, and possibly some of Bautista when
Castillo plays, the Pirates should get moderate production out of right field.
Jason Bay is a rock of consistency, and since he's only 28 years old, you know
exactly what to expect out of him.
Top of the Rotation
2006 Starters - Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm
Projected 2007 Starters - Duke, Snell, Maholm
No Pirate pitcher was more adversely affected by Castillo's lackluster
defensive effort than Duke, an extreme groundball pitcher. The young
innings-eater isn't everything you could hope for in a staff ace, but you can
pencil him in for 200 innings and an ERA around 4.00 after his strong finish to
the 2006 season. Snell, on the other hand, has the potential to be that
dominant ace. He had the third fastest starter's average fastball speed in
the National League last year, eclipsing such flamethrowers as Roy Oswalt, Jason
Schmidt, John Smoltz, Carlos Zambrano, and Jake Peavy. He compliments this
fastball with a tight slider. Injuries could be an issue for the
slightly-built Snell, but a healthy season will certainly translate into over
200 strikeouts for him.
Bottom of the Rotation
2006 Options - Oliver Perez, Victor Santos, Tom Gorzelanny, Shawn Chacon
Possible 2007 Options - Tony Armas Jr., Gorzelanny, Chacon, Sean Burnett
Behind Duke and Snell, the Pirates will use a squadron of hittable pitchers
ranging from solid (Maholm) to terrible (Chacon). The only one with
significant upside is Gorzelanny, and he's had an abhorrent spring. Since
none of these pitchers will strike out many batters, team defense will prove key
for the back end of this rotation. If the Bucs can flash some leather,
this uninspiring mess could be good enough to keep the Pirates in ballgames.
Bullpen
2006 Options - Mike Gonzalez, Solomon Torres, Matt Capps, John Grabow,
Damaso Marte
Possible 2007 Options - Torres, Capps, Grabow, Marte, Josh Sharpless
Keeping games close should be all that's needed from those starters, because
the Pirates again boast a top-notch bullpen. Solomon Torres will get the
first shot at the shutdown role, but the Bucs possess no less than five
relievers that could prove capable as closers. Throughout the entire
pitching staff, the Pirates have perhaps the best righty/lefty balance of any
major league team.
Final Word
Only Jason Bay managed more than 16 homers for the Bucs last year, so the
addition of Adam LaRoche is no small thing for this Pittsburgh offense. By
no means do they have a murderer's row, but they won't finish last in the league
in scoring this season, and not just because the Nationals won't score at all.
They need Ian Snell to pitch healthy all season and their defense to once again
play to it's ability. Otherwise, they won't prevent enough runs for the
improved offense to matter much.
Make no mistake, this Pirates team is better now than it was a year ago, and
stands pointed in the right direction. They should finish in the
mid-to-high 70's in wins, which could put them anywhere between fifth and third
place in a muddled NL Central division.
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