Predicted Finish
84-78 3rd place AL East
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Toronto Blue Jays - 2007 Team Preview
by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com March 31, 2007
2006 Record - 87-75, 2nd place AL East
2006 Runs Scored - 809
2006 Runs Allowed - 754
Pythagorean Projection - 86-76
Nabbing second place from the Red Sox last year put the Toronto Blue Jays the
highest they have been in the AL East since they won it all in 1993.
Moreover, their 93 efficiency wins last season tied them for the second most in
baseball. They added one of the top hitters of 2006 in the offseason, and
reached into the January bargain bin for some pitching depth, So what's
not to like? Age and injuries could be a factor yet again for this team.
Several career years led Toronto to those 87 wins last year. Most
importantly, team management has made some very questionable roster moves this
spring that will prove detrimental to its success.
Catcher
2006 Starters -
Bengie Molina, Greg Zaun
Projected 2007 Starter
- Zaun, Jason Phillips
While Bengie Molina proved to be a gigantic
disappointment after arguably having the beat overall season of any catcher in
2005, the platoon of Greg Zaun and Brandon Phillips isn't going to wow anybody.
Toronto is weaker here than they were last season.
First Base
2006 Starter -
Lyle Overbay
Projected 2007 Starter
- Overbay
Lyle Overbay could lead the American League in doubles while still remaining
just an average first baseman offensively. He's older than you think at
30-years old, and his defense is
not all that it appears to be.
Second Base
2006 Starter -
Aaron Hill
Projected 2007 Starter
- Hill
Aaron Hill ranks among the best kept secrets in the American League.
Apart from leading all of baseball in
plus/minus rating from second
base, Hill batted .291 last season, including .307 after April. Don't get
me wrong; Toronto should still regret letting Orlando Hudson go, but Aaron Hill
can fill O-Dog's shoes quite capably.
Third Base
- Troy Glaus
Projected 2007 Starter
- Glaus
How many 30-year old third basemen boast 257 career home runs? How many
6'5" 240-lb third basemen would be entrusted with eight starts at shortstop in a
season? Troy Glaus is not your average stalker at the hot corner, and the
Blue Jays will benefit from his team presence this season.
Shortstop
2006 Starter -
Russ Adams, John McDonald
Blue Jays Fun Fact
In 2005, Russ Adams became the only Toronto player in the post-Alex Gonzalez era to start over 100 games at shortstop. |
Projected 2007 Starter
-
Royce Clayton, McDonald
Disaster. Gotcha! You can't tell whether I'm talking about the
shortstop position for the 2006 Blue Jays or that of the 2007 Blue Jays, can
you? Toronto management may be spearheading a campaign to put Tony
Fernandez in the Hall of Fame by lining up lackluster candidates for their
infield captain position.
Outfield
2006 Starters - Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells, Alexis Rios, Frank Catalanotto
Projected 2007 Starters - Johnson, Wells, Rios, Adam Lind
Have a chat with a Toronto Blue Jays fan. He'll tell you that Alexis
Rios is the greatest thing since the foul-strike rule. I see someone who
doesn't walk enough, hit .261 after the All-Star break, and slugged .456 away
from Rogers Centre. Only Robinson Cano outperformed his
PrOPS by a greater margin than
Reed Johnson did last year. Don't expect the 30-year old to hit over .280.
Did you know that Vernon Wells has but a .336 career OBP? What an
overrated punk. This outfield isn't going to come close to its 2006
offensive production.
Adam Lind could have the best offensive season of any Toronto outfielder, as
his .893 minor league OPS would indicate. Trouble is, the Blue Jays have
decided to go without a fourth outfielder on their 25-man roster. That's
right, the Bluebirds have room for Royce Clayton, John McDonald, and Jason Smith
on their roster, but not Adam Lind. Those crazy Canadians...
Designated Hitter
2006 Starter - Shea Hillenbrand 2007 Crew- Frank Thomas, Matt
Stairs
We rightfully assume that The Big Hurt will spend some time hurt this season.
The question is, how many games does Frank Thomas need to play before he is
automatically more valuable than Shea Hillenbrand? Given that Frank has
averaged about nine Runs Created per game over the course of his career.
Hillenbrand has averaged approximately five. That means that 90 games of
Frank Thomas is equivalent to roughly 162 games of Shea Hillenbrand. It's safe to
say that the Blue Jays have improved here.
Top of the Rotation
2006 Starters - Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, AJ Burnett, Gustavo Chacin
Projected 2007 Starters - Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Tomo Okha
If healthy, the Blue Jays should have a better than average rotation. But not one of these four pitchers comes without health concerns, and Chacin and Okha aren't exactly dominant when at their best. Burnett could be a Cy Young contender if he approaches 200 innings, but Halladay's strikeout totals were alarmingly low last year, and his infield defense still looks suspect.
Bottom of the Rotation- Casey Janssen, Shawn Marcum, Josh Towers
Possible 2007 Options - John Thomson, Towers, Dustin McGowan, Marcum
The latest rumor has John Thomson being dangled in trade offers while the 5th
starter's role goes to Josh "Fawlty" Towers. The Jays have at least three
better options than Towers, four once Victor Zambrano is healthy. One
would assume that once JFT gets blown up in April, Toronto would then switch to
one of these superior hurlers. But like a yo-yo, Josh Towers keeps popping
back up. The Blue Jays appear too stubborn to admit that they should not
have signed a pitcher with a slider nearly indistinguishable from his changeup
to a 2-year, $5.2 million dollar extension in November of 2005.
Bullpen
2006 Options - BJ Ryan, Justin Speier, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Scott
Schoenweiss, Jason Frasor
Possible 2007 Options - Ryan, Frasor, Tallet, Janssen, Jeremy Accardo
Speier's departure weakens this once-strong bullpen, though Jeremy Accardo
has enough upside to possibly replace his presence. BJ Ryan is still among
the best closers in baseball, so even if the middle relief is weakened,
Toronto's bullpen is not a liability.
Final Word
Last year's Twins proved that a ballclub with five or six superstars and a
bunch of guys who don't hurt the team can reach the top. These Blue Jays
could have a similar makeup, with Wells, Glaus, Thomas, Halladay, Burnett, and
Ryan leading a nondescript flock. Unfortunately, Thomas, Halladay, and
Burnett have each been injured two of the past three seasons, and Troy Glaus is
more Tony Stark than Iron Man. It might be asking a lot for this Insidious
Six to act as team cornerstones.
Perhaps more worrisome is the mindset of JP Riccardi. He should
seriously consider doing whatever it takes to coax Keith Law back into his fold.
Signing Royce Clayton, demoting Adam Lind, and putting blind faith in Josh
Towers are not personnel decisions made by winning teams. Riccardi will
need to pull of a roster retool comparable to what Terry Ryan accomplished when
he jettisoned the likes of Tony Batista, Kyle Lohse, and Juan Castro. Ryan
made that difficult task look easy, and it would take something very unusual for
the Blue Jays to finish outside of their normal 78-88 win range.
Questions? Concerns? Comments? Keith lives in Chicago, and can be reached at keith@baseballevolution.com.
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