by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
October 11, 2014
The San Francisco Giants knocked off the Washington
Nationals in four games in their NLDS matchup, and the St. Louis Cardinals
similarly toppled the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now the two teams meet in the
National League Championship Series for the second time in three years, and
fourth time since 1987. For the Cardinals, it will be their fourth consecutive
trip to the NLCS, while the Giants are attempting to win the World Series for
the third time in the past five seasons. No matter which team wins, it will be
the fifth consecutive season in which one of these two teams has represented the
Senior Circuit on baseball’s ultimate stage.
From Jeffrey “Hac-Man” Leonard and his One-Flap
Down home run trot to Jose Oquendo’s improbable series winning 3-run
homer; from Will Clark to Ozzie Smith; Kenny Lofton to
Mike Matheny; Barry Zito to Adam Wainwright; and Matt
Holliday to Marco Scutaro; these two clubs have a rich history of
facing each other in the postseason. You can be sure that this series will be
intense and hard fought.
Here’s a positional breakdown of the two teams.
Catcher:
San Francisco – Buster Posey – .311/.364/.490,
143 OPS+, 22 HR, 89 RBI, 30% CS, -4 DRS
St. Louis – Yadier Molina – .282/.333/.386, 101
OPS +, 7 HR, 38 RBI, 48% CS, 8 DRS
Molina is the best defensive catcher in the game, but he
suffered a torn ligament in his thumb that kept him sidelined for 7 weeks, and
he struggled through his worst offensive season since 2010. Molina batted just
.200 in the Division series against LA, while Posey followed up another
MVP-quality season by batting .391 against the Nationals and Pirates.
Advantage: Posey
First Base:
San Francisco – Brandon Belt – .243/.306/.449,
114 OPS+, 12 HR, 27 RBI, 3 DRS, 6.2 UZR/150
St. Louis – Matt Adams – .288/.321/.457, 115
OPS+, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 8 DRS, 3.1 URZ/150
Adams delivered the biggest hit of the postseason thus
far for St. Louis, belting a 3-run homer off of Clayton Kershaw in Game 4
of the NLDS, while Belt’s drive deep into the late Washington night in the 18th
inning of Game 2 helped put the Nationals squarely behind the 8-ball in that
series.
Advantage: Adams
Second Base:
San Francisco – Joe Panik – .305/.343/.368, 104
OPS+, 1 HR, 18 RBI, -1 DRS, 0.6 UZR/150
St. Louis – Kolten Wong – .249/.292/.388, 89
OPS+, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 9 DRSM 4.2 UZR/150
Panik had one of the biggest at bats of the Giants
series against Washington when he drew a two-out walk against Jordan
Zimmermann in the 9th inning and ended up scoring the tying run
in what would become an 18-inning marathon. He’s a rookie that plays like a
10-year veteran. Wong had just 2 hits in 11 at bats versus the Dodgers, but none
bigger than his 2-run homer in the 7th inning of the pivotal Game 3.
The Giants will need to be wary not only of his sneaky pop, but also his speed
(20/24 SB).
Advantage: Panik
Third Base:
San Francisco – Pablo Sandoval – .279/.324/.415,
111 OPS+, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 4 DRS, 3.3 UZR/150
St. Louis – Matt Carpenter – .272/.375/.375, 111
OPS+, 8 HR, 59 RBI, -2 DRS, -0.7 UZR/150
Carpenter had a down year after moving from the keystone
to the hot corner, but came up big in the NLDS, going 6-for-16 with 3 home runs
and 7 RBI. St. Louis will need him to keep his bat hot against the Giants.
Sandoval was just 4-for-19 against the Nationals, but his two-out double in the
9th inning of Game 2 brought Panik home with the tying run in that
marathon. He’s also just one of four players to ever hit three home runs in a
single World Series game (Babe Ruth, 1926 & 1928, Reggie Jackson,
1977, Albert Pujols, 2011), doing so against Justin Verlander and
the Tigers in 2012.
Advantage: Sandoval
Shortstop:
San Francisco – Brandon Crawford –
.246/.324/.389, 104 OPS+, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 8 DRS, 0.1 UZR/150
St. Louis – Jhonny Peralta – .263/.336/.443, 116
OPS+, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 17 DRS, 12.7 UZR/150
Despite being suspended in 2013 for his involvement with
the Biogenesis scandal, Peralta was signed by the Cardinals to a 4-year, $53
million contact this past off-season, and responded with a fantastic campaign,
both at the plate and in the field. Crawford has had a strong postseason run so
far, clubbing a grand slam against the Pirates and going 5-for-17 (.294) against
Washington.
Advantage: Peralta
Left Field:
San Francisco – Travis Ishikawa – .252/.311/.393,
100 OPS+, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 1 DRS, 0.0 UZR/150
St. Louis – Matt Holliday – .272/.370/.441, 126
OPS+, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 0 DRS, -1.7 UZR/150
One big key in this series could be the health and
potential impact of San Francisco left fielder, Michael Morse. The Giants
have been forced to play Ishikawa out of position due to the oblique injury
suffered by Morse in September and the season-ending back injury to Angel
Pagan. Morse missed the Wild Card playoff versus Pittsburgh and the NLDS
against Washington, but he returns to the roster for the NLCS and his potent bat
could be a difference maker in this series. Giants fans, of course, won’t soon
forget Holliday’s takeout slide on Scutaro in Game 2 of the 2012 NLCS.
Advantage: Holliday
Centerfield:
San Francisco – Gregor Blanco – .260/.333/.374,
103 OPS+, 5 HR, 38 RBI, -7 DRS, -4.3 UZR/150
St. Louis – Jon Jay – .303/.372/.378, 111 OPS+, 3
HR, 46 RBI, 5 DRS, 12.8 UZR/150
Jay went 5-for-11 (.455) in the series versus Los
Angeles, while Blanco is just 2-for-22 (.091) in the postseason subbing for
Pagan at the top of their lineup. The Giants will need Blanco to start reaching
base if they are to continue their trend of even year World Series
Championships.
Advantage: Jay
Right Field:
San Francisco – Hunter Pence – .277/.332/.445,
121 OPS+, 20 HR, 74 RBI, -2 DRS, 2.2 UZR/150
St. Louis – Randal Grichuk – .245/.278/.400, 87
OPS+, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 1 DRS, 13.4 UZR/150
Although Grichuk got the start in all four games against
the Dodgers, and even homered against Kershaw in Game 1, Oscar Taveras
could see time in right field as well for St. Louis in this series. Grichuk was
just 3-for-16 (.188) in the NLDS, while Pence showed signs of breaking out of
his late season slump by going 5-for-18 (.278) against the Nationals. Pence has
become the spiritual heart and soul of the Giants since being acquired from
Philadelphia in 2012.
Advantage: Pence
Rotation:
San Francisco – Bumgarner, Peavy, Hudson, Vogelsong
St. Louis – Wainwright, Lynn, Lackey, Miller
During the regular season, St. Louis’ starters ranked
sixth in MLB in ERA at 3.44, while the Giants starters collectively ranked 16th,
at 3.74. But in the postseason, San Francisco starters have compiled a stellar
1.04 ERA while the Cardinals starters have posted a 4.30 mark. Pitching,
undoubtedly, will be a key to this series. The 25-year old Bumgarner has already
solidified himself as the Giants’ ace and a big game pitcher. He’ll face off
against 20-game winner Wainwright in Game 1 of the series. Wainwright has
struggled in the postseason, losing his last 3 decisions and posting a 5.40 ERA
over his last 4 postseason starts. Peavy versus Lynn, Hudson versus Lackey, and
Vogelsong versus Miller round out the pitching matchups.
Advantage: Even
Bullpen:
San Francisco – Casilla (Cl), Romo,
Lopez, Affeldt, Petit, Machi, Strickland, Lincecum
St. Louis – Rosenthal (Cl), Martinez, Neshek, Maness,
Choate, Wacha
The San Francisco bullpen ranked fifth in MLB in ERA in
2014 at 3.01, while the Cardinals pen was just 17th at 3.62. In the
postseason, the Giants pen collectively has allowed just 1.86 runs per 9 innings
pitched, while the St. Louis bullpen has an ERA of 3.00.
Advantage: San Francisco
Bench:
San Francisco – Arias, Susac, Duffy,
Morse, Perez
St. Louis – Bourjos, Taveras, Descalso, Cruz, Kozma,
Pierzynski
Morse’s return to the Giants roster undoubtedly deepens
the Giants bench, while the Cardinals have added A.J. Pierzynski to their
bench for the series.
Advantage: St. Louis
Managers:
San Francisco – Bruce Bochy
St. Louis – Mike Matheny
Despite Matheny having taken the Cardinals to the NLCS
in all three years of his tenure as manager, Bochy is among the best in the
business. His steady leadership and deft handling of the bullpen have the Giants
primed to win a third World Championship in five seasons.
Advantage: San Francisco
The Final Word
This series is likely to be an epic battle between two
of the National League’s most storied franchises. As it always does in October,
it will come down to who plays the cleanest game; who makes the fewest mistakes.
Both teams are highly experienced and just one mistake could be enough to
separate the two teams.
Prediction:
San Francisco Giants over St. Louis Cardinals, four
games to two
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard resides in San Francisco, California and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.