by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
October 20, 2014
It’s been nearly 30 years since the days of George Brett,
Willie Wilson, Bret Saberhagen, and Dan Quisenberry, and
nearly 30 years since the Kansas City Royals last played in the
postseason. They haven’t been to the World Series, or even back to the playoffs,
since their 1985 seven game classic victory against their cross state rivals,
the St. Louis Cardinals.
The 2014 Kansas City Royals brought that long 29-year
postseason drought to an end by winning one of the two American League Wild Card
spots. Their improbable march to the World Series then began after erasing a
7-3, eighth inning deficit against the Oakland A’s in the Wild Card tilt,
followed by a stunning 3-game sweep of the team with the AL’s best record, the
Los Angeles Angels. They then swept the Baltimore Orioles out of the
ALCS to reach the Fall Classic in undefeated fashion.
Their opponent in the World Series will be looking to win
their third World Championship in the past five seasons after failing to win the
Series even once since 1954 and the early days of the Say Hey Kid, Willie
Mays. It will also be the first all Wild Card World Series since the Giants
came within five outs of winning the 2002 Series against the Angels.
After backing into the second Wild Card spot in the
National League, the San Francisco Giants began another trek through
Orange October by shutting out the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-0 in the NL
play-in game. They proceeded to knock off the Washington Nationals, who
possessed the NL’s best regular season record, in a commanding three games to
one NLDS. San Fran then secured their third pennant in five years by handling
the Cardinals in a five game NLCS, highlighted by unlikely hero Travis
Ishikawa’s three-run walk-off home run, the first homer to propel the Giants
into the World Series since Bobby Thomson’s famous Shot Heard ‘Round The
World against the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 1951.
Although it will be the first time these two teams have
ever met in the postseason, thanks to Interleague play, it will just be the
first time these two teams have faced each other since early August, when the
Royals trounced the Giants in a 3-game set at Kauffman Stadium.
In the first game of that series, the Royals got a
serviceable start from Jason Vargas (5 IP, 2 R) and then saw their
vaunted bullpen lock down the late innings to overcome a complete game effort
from Madison Bumgarner and win 4-2. Game 2 saw Big Game James Shields
shut out the Giants, while Alex Gordon homered off of Tim Hudson
in the 5-0 win. Gordon homered again the next day to back Danny Duffy in
a 7-4 rout of Tim Lincecum, again secured by Greg Holland and
crew, helping Kansas City complete a dominant series sweep.
Back on August 8, however, when that series started, these
two teams were headed in completely different directions. San Francisco was
reaching the end of a 10-game road swing, and had lost 9-of-14 games on their
way towards losing 14-of-20 overall. The Royals, on the other hand, had won four
in a row, 7-of-8, and 12-of-their-last-15, in the midst of a 24-6 run.
Team Breakdown
Team Pitching – San Francisco 3.50 ERA (t-10th
in MLB), Kansas City 3.51 ERA (12th)
Starting Pitching – San Francisco 3.74 ERA (16th),
Kansas City 3.60 ERA (t-10th)
Relief Pitching – San Francisco 3.01 ERA (5th),
Kansas City 3.30 (10th)
The Giants and Royals ranked 10th and 12th
in baseball in earned run average, separated by just .01 in overall ERA. The
Royals starters outranked their Giants counterparts in composite ERA, but the
Royals’ hard-throwing pen ranked only 10th in the majors while the
Giants underappreciated pen ranked 5th overall. While the Royals
relievers were ranked 11th overall in opponents’ batting average
(.235), the Giants relief core were tops in all of baseball with a stingy .217
mark.
In the postseason, the two bullpens have been nearly
equally effective, with the Giants’ relievers compiling a 1.78 ERA and .164
opponents’ batting average in 35.1 innings and the Royals posting marks of 1.80
and .179 in 35.0 innings. The difference has been in the starting pitching,
where the Giants starters’ collective ERA is a mere 2.40 in 63.2 innings, while
the Royals have posted a 3.80 ERA in 45.0 innings. Overall, the Giants staff has
allowed three quarters of a run fewer per nine innings pitched (2.18 to 2.93) in
the playoffs.
Oddly, the Giants have surrendered 12 home runs in the
playoffs, yet all 12 have come with the bases empty.
Team Batting
San Francisco – Batting Average (.255 - 10th),
On Base Plus Slugging (.699 - 14th), Runs (665 - 12th)
Kansas City – Batting Average (.263 - 4th),
On Base Plus Slugging (.690 - 17th), Runs (651 - 14th)
The similarity between the two clubs remains apparent when
you at the offensive results, though there are some distinct differences, too.
Neither team is going to club you to death, with the Giants ranking 17th
in MLB during the regular season with 132 home runs, adding just five more in
the postseason. The Royals hit the fewest home runs in the majors this season,
with just 95 round trippers, although in the postseason they’ve gotten eight in
eight games, including four from third baseman Mike Moustakas, who batted
just .212 with 15 longballs during the regular season.
The real difference between the two clubs is speed. The
Royals led the majors in stolen bases with 153 and in stolen base percentage at
81%, despite also leading the league in attempts (189). Jarrod Dyson,
Alcides Escobar, and Lorenzo Cain each stole at least 28 bases during
the regular season, while the club also carries the rookie speedster Terrance
Gore as a late-inning pinch running threat. The Giants stole just 56 bases
during the regular season at 67% success rate, the second fewest stolen bases in
the majors. Both teams specialize in manufacturing runs; they just go about it
different ways, with the Giants’ method being described by Gregor Blanco
after Game 3 of the NLCS as “ugly, but it works.”
Team Fielding
San Francisco – Defensive Runs Saved (-3 – 15th),
Ultimate Zone Rating (2.9 – 15th)
Kansas City – Defensive Runs Saved (41 – 4th),
Ultimate Zone Rating (61.1 – 1st)
Traditional fielding statistics paint the Royals and Giants
as very similar defensively, with San Francisco committing 100 errors on the
year for a .984 fielding percentage, and Kansas City committing 104 miscues,
resulting in a .983 rate. Advanced metrics, however, give the Royals a big
advantage, due in no small part to their tremendously gifted defensive outfield.
Positional Breakdown (Stats are 2014 Postseason
Combined)
Catcher:
San Francisco – Buster Posey – 13-for-43:
.302/.354/.302 – 0 HR, 5 RBI
Kansas City – Salvador Perez – 4-for-34:
.118/.143/.118 – 0 HR, 2 RBI
Although Buster Posey has yet to collect an
extra-base hit in this postseason, 2014 saw him become the Giants’ all-time
postseason leader in hits with 42, and his 3 RBI in Game 4 of the NLCS gave him
19 for his career, two behind Barry Bonds on the franchise leaderboard.
Salvador Perez has had a quiet first postseason at the plate, but it was
his base hit in the 12th inning against Oakland that broke an 0-for-5
night and brought home the winning run in the Wild Card matchup. Posey gets the
nod based on experience on the big stage, but he’ll need to be ready to contain
the Royals explosive running game from behind the dish.
Advantage: Buster Posey
First Base:
San Francisco – Brandon Belt – 10-for-35:
.286/.409/.371 – 1 HR, 6 RBI
Kansas City – Eric Hosmer – 13-for-29: .448/.556/.759 – 2 HR, 8 RBI
After losing a fair portion of his regular season to
injuries, Brandon Belt has had a solid postseason run, including the game
winning home run in the 18th inning of Game 2 in the NLDS, but his
postseason has paled in comparison to the monster line Eric Hosmer has
put up thus far in the Royals’ run. Belt had the better regular season line,
out-homering Hosmer by three in over 300 fewer plate appearances.
Advantage: Brandon Belt
Second Base:
San Francisco – Joe Panik – 11-for-46:
.239/.271/.348 – 1 HR, 5 RBI
Kansas City – Omar Infante – 6-for-29:
.207/.294/.207 – 0 HR, 1 RBI
The rookie Joe Panik hasn’t torn it up, so to speak,
in October, but he’s picked his spots and had tough at bats in the two-hole for
San Francisco, delivering a huge 2-run homer in Game 5 of the NLCS and a big
walk against Jordan Zimmermann in the NLDS. He plays with the confidence
of a veteran. Omar Infante, on the other hand, has been there before,
playing with Detroit against the Giants in the 2012 World Series. He’s solid
defensively and contributes a strong veteran presence, but has yet to produce
many runs this October.
Advantage: Joe Panik
Third Base:
San Francisco – Pablo Sandoval – 14-for-43:
.326/.396/.419 – 0 HR, 1 RBI
Kansas City – Mike Moustakas – 7-for-29:
.241/.267/.655 – 4 HR, 5 RBI
While he hasn’t gone deep yet this October, Pablo
Sandoval has stretched his franchise record of consecutive postseason games
reaching base to 23. And while he’s only driven in one run this postseason, that
one was a big one, tying Game 2 of the NLDS versus the Nationals in the 9th
inning and sending that game on its way to 18 innings of history. He’s also
played outstanding defense the entire season, a testament to his weight loss
regimen that gives him much greater range. Mike Moustakas had a rough
regular season, but has come up big in October, belting four home runs, two of
which came in extra-innings. He’s just 3-for-25 with one walk the rest of the
time, however.
Advantage: Pablo Sandoval
Shortstop:
San Francisco – Brandon Crawford – 8-for-38:
.211/.279/.342 – 1 HR, 5 RBI
Kansas City – Alcides Escobar – 10-for-36:
.278/.297/.417 – 1 HR, 3 RBI
Alcides Escobar had an excellent season for Kansas
City, putting up strong numbers at the plate, and solid numbers in the field. He
stole 31 bases during the regular season, and he’s one of the many speedsters
Posey will need to keep his eye on. While Brandon Crawford’s overall line
isn’t impressive, he has had a few big moments this October at the plate,
including his Wild Card game grand slam against the Pirates. He has also played
outstanding in the field.
Advantage: Alcides Escobar
Left Field:
San Francisco – Travis Ishikawa – 7-for-26:
.269/.345/.462 – 1 HR, 7 RBI
Kansas City – Alex Gordon – 6-for-27: .222/.400/.444
– 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB
Although the Gold Glover Alex Gordon led Kansas City in
home runs (19) and RBI (74) during the regular season and leads all Royals with
9 RBI this postseason, it has been Travis Ishikawa, owner of three big league
starts in left field prior to the playoffs, who has delivered the biggest hit
this October, propelling the Giants into this Series showdown with his dramatic
home run against Michael Wacha and the Cards. Ishikawa also happens to
lead all Giants hitters with 7 RBI this postseason.
Advantage: Alex Gordon
Centerfield:
San Francisco – Gregor Blanco – 7-for-44:
.159/.229/.182 – 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB
Kansas City – Lorenzo Cain – 12-for-34:
.353/.378/.441 – 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB
Lorenzo Cain was the MVP of the ALCS by hitting .533
(8-for-15) against the Orioles, and is not only one of the top defensive
centerfielders (+26 DRS) in the game, but he also becomes one of the top
defensive right fielders (+16 DRS) when Jarrod Dyson (+23 DRS in CF) enters the
game for speed and defense in the later innings. Blanco has struggled mightily
at the plate this October; it would serve the Giants well if he could get hot in
the Series.
Advantage: Lorenzo Cain
Right Field:
San Francisco – Hunter Pence – 10-for-39:
.256/.341/.333 – 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB
Kansas City – Nori Aoki – 7-for-27: .259/.344/.259 –
0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB
Although the Giants’ charismatic off-the-field spiritual
leader has slumped in October, Hunter Pence is seemingly always on the
verge of breaking out and could be a dark horse MVP candidate for the Series.
Nori Aoki stole 17 bases during the regular season and is yet another guy to
watch when he gets on base.
Advantage: Hunter Pence
Designated Hitter:
San Francisco – Michael Morse – 2-for-4:
.500/.500/1.250 – 1 HR, 1 RBI
Kansas City – Billy Butler – 6-for-27:
.222/.303/.296 – 0 HR, 5 RBI
Billy Butler’s lackluster 2014 regular season
performance, coupled with his soft postseason line, have left it doubtful
whether the Royals will pick up his 2015 option. He should not be overlooked,
however, and is always dangerous, as Bumgarner learned back in August when
Butler’s 2-run, 7th inning, tie-breaking shot was the difference in a
4-2 Royals victory. Michael Morse hasn’t played much since August due to
an injured oblique, but his game-tying pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS
left no doubt the impact his bat could have upon the Giants lineup.
Advantage: Billy Butler
Rotation:
San Francisco – Bumgarner, Peavy, Hudson, Vogelsong
Kansas City – Shields, Ventura, Vargas, Guthrie
The two teams will face off in Game 1 with their big guns:
Big Game James Shields against Madison “Snotrocket” Bumgarner. While Shields
carries the “Big Game” moniker, his career ERA in 50 1/3 postseason innings is
just 5.19, including 5.63 this year. The 25-year old Bumgarner, on the other
hand, earned the NLCS MVP by allowing just three runs in two starts against the
Cardinals. He also has a career postseason ERA of 2.67 in 67.1 innings pitched,
not to mention an active 15 inning scoreless streak in the World Series.
Perhaps key to this series could be the health of young gun
Yordano Ventura, who had to leave Game 2 of the ALCS with tightness in
his throwing shoulder after 5 2/3 innings. He matches up against veteran Jake
Peavy in Game 2 of the World Series. The 23-year old Ventura has allowed 7
runs in 13 postseason innings. Peavy has been solid for San Francisco, allowing
just 2 earned runs in his two October starts, albeit in only 9 2/3 innings.
Game 3 presents another good matchup, likely with lefty
Jason Vargas facing the suddenly very left-handed Giants lineup (Blanco, Panik,
Belt, Ishikawa, and Crawford -plus Pablo Sandoval struggles from the right
side). Tim Hudson will get the Game 3 start in the first ever World Series
appearance of his stellar 16-year career.
Before struggling in his Game 5 start against St. Louis,
Ryan Vogelsong had the 3rd lowest ERA in postseason history (min
5 starts). Despite his struggles in that game, he gets the start in game four
against the Royals, though he’ll be backed up by the Giants not-so-secret weapon
Yusmeiro Petit, who tossed a combined 9 shutout innings of 2-hit relief
for the Giants this October, in a performance reminiscent of Tim Lincecum
circa 2012. Jeremy Guthrie has pitched just once in the playoffs, but
tossed a solid five innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball against the O’s. He likely gets
the start, unless KC goes back to Shields on short-rest.
Advantage: San Francisco
Bullpen:
San Francisco – Casilla (Cl), Romo, Lopez,
Affeldt, Petit, Machi, Strickland, Lincecum
Kansas City – Holland (Cl), Davis, Herrera,
Frasor, Collins, Finnegan, Duffy
The Kansas City formula for manager Ned Yost has
been to get a lead through six and hand it over to the pen. Greg Holland,
Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera have been outstanding when the Royals
have a lead. Brandon Finnegan, who was pitching in the College World
Series earlier this year, has been a fantastic addition. It will therefore be a
key for the Giants to get to the Royals starters. The Giants’ core four
relievers, closer Santiago Casilla, setup man Sergio Romo, and
lefties Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt, who have all played a big
role in the Giants postseason success since 2010, have combined to allow just
one run, a Kolton Wong home run against Romo to win Game 2 of the NLCS,
in 19.2 innings this October. That’s in addition to Petit’s nine scoreless
relief innings.
Advantage: San Francisco
Bench:
San Francisco – Arias, Susac, Duffy,
Perez
Kansas City – Dyson, Gore, Willingham, Kratz, Colon
Jarrod Dyson and speedy Terrance Gore are the Royals’ two
big threats to wreak havoc in the late innings, Gore tying Gordon for the
postseason lead in stolen bases with 3. When the series shifts to San Francisco,
the Royals will add Butler off the bench to pinch-hit, along with Josh
Willingham. The Giants’ bench, already thin, will be even more so when the
Series goes to KC, though you’ll likely continue to see Juan Perez in for
Ishikawa for defense late in the game.
Advantage: Kansas City
Managers:
San Francisco – Bruce Bochy
Kansas City – Ned Yost
Ned Yost has proven a lot of doubters wrong this season,
and has shown a Bruce Bochy-like ability to stray from the script this
October when it comes to his bullpen. Bochy has proven himself a master of
October managing, leading the Giants to a 30-11 record (.732) in the playoffs
since 2010.
Advantage: San Francisco
The Final Word
The Royals have had a fantastic October, cruising to the
World Series on an 8-0 run while looking stronger every step of the way. Yet
they are up against a seeming team of destiny in the San Francisco Giants, led
by Buster Posey, who many have anointed the next Derek Jeter of October
baseball. But the Giants are much bigger than Posey; they are 25 guys united in
one common goal: win today. They are skippered by one of the best in the game.
They are experienced on this stage. They are determined to become a dynasty.
This series isn’t going back to Kansas City for Games 6 or
7, it’s going to end in five, with the fans in San Francisco finally getting to
celebrate a World Series Championship in the City by the Bay, in the ballpark on
the Bay, AT&T Park. It’s going to end with the Giants’ third World Series
Championship in the last five seasons.
Prediction:
San Francisco Giants over Kansas City Royals: Four Games
to One
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard resides in San Francisco, California and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.