Moneyball Odds and Ends - DePo-isms and More

 DePo’s List

“Since were talking about Brown anyway,” says Paul, which wasn’t exactly true, since the scouts were now distinctively not talking about Brown, “there’s a list of hitters I want to talk about.  All of these guys share certain qualities.  They are the eight guys we definitely want.  And we want all eight of these guys."

                                                                                    ~ Moneyball

With that kind of intro you must be figuring that DePodesta’s list must have included guys like Swisher, Teahen, Adams and Greene.  Think again.  Collectively, the 8 players on DePo’s list have a combined total of 3 major league hits, with all 3 belonging to the infamous and now retired Jeremy Brown.  The A’s were able to draft all but one of those 8, passing on Shawn Larkin in favor of Jared Burton in the 8th round only to see Cleveland take him in the 9th.  Heading into the 2008 season, only Brian Stavisky remain in the Oakland system.

Depo’s Must Have List Through 2007

Jeremy Brown – 5 ML games
Stephen Stanley – 0 ML games
John Baker – 0 ML games
Mark Kiger – 2 ML games (post-season only)
Shaun Larkin – 0 ML games
John McCurdy – 0 ML games
Brant Colamarino – 0 ML games
Brian Stavisky – 0 ML games

The Creature

Most of the scouts, and Paul, happened to be there when Beck warmed up in the A’s bullpen.  It was one of the most bizarre sights any of them ever had seen on a pitcher’s mound.  When the kid drew back his left arm to throw, his left hand flopped and twirled maniacally.  His wrist might as well not exist: at any moment, it seemed, his hand might disengage itself and fly away.  The kid was double jointed, maybe even crippled.  At that moment David Beck ceased to be known to the scouts as David Beck and became, simply, “The Creature.”

He and his Halloween hand and his 84 mph fastball shut down the opposition so completely that the opposition never knew what happened.  In the short season The Creature pitched eighteen innings in relief, struck out thirty-two batters, and finished with an earned run average of an even 1.00.  He was named the closer on the rookie league All-Star team.

                                                                                                ~ Moneyball

David Beck, a pitcher out of Cumberland with better numbers than his teammate who was a considered consensus first round pick, was signed sight unseen by then scouting director Grady Fuson as an olive branch after the ‘debacle’ of inexcusably having taken high schooler Jeremy Bonderman with the club’s top pick.  He was a soft-tosser, according to A’s scout Billy Owens, code for “not worth my time.”  Yet Moneyball goes on to note that he dominated the Arizona Rookie League that fall.  So what became of this freak?  Why haven’t you heard from him since then?  Success turned out to be fleeting, and Oakland released him following the season.  Retirement from pro ball quickly followed. 

As an aside, the consensus first rounder who went un-named in Moneyball was pitcher Chris Smith, whom Baltimore made the 7th overall pick of the 2001 draft, much higher than most scouts had him pegged.  He spent considerable time on the disabled list during his time in the Orioles organization – missing the entire 2003 season – and never rose above A-ball, retiring after a brief stint with the Independent Atlantic League Long Island Ducks in 2005.

Kirk Saarloos

Grady and his scouts had ignored Paul when he said they ought to check out a college pitcher named Kirk Saarloos.  Saarloos was a short right-hander with an 88-mile-per-hour fastball.  Why waste time on a short right-hander? (Because, Paul would be able to say less than a year later, Saarloos is one of only two players from the 2001 draft pitching in the big leagues.)

                                                                                    ~ Moneyball

A third round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2001 by the Houston Astros, Saarloos gained notoriety with his inclusion in the book.  He earned his early promotion to the majors by saving 11 games with a 1.17 ERA in 2001 (after going 15-2 for CSF) and going 12-1 with a 1.55 ERA in 2002 before his recall.  Since then, however, success has been fleeting.  He posted a 6.01 ERA in his rookie campaign and followed that up with a 4.93 mark in 2003.  In 2004, he was traded to the A’s in exchange for Chad Harville whom Oakland managed to coax 10 wins out of  in 2005 before trading him to the Reds following the ’06 season.  In his career, he’s compiled a mediocre 28-30 record and a pitching line of 5.00/1.53/.293.  Cincinnati released him after the ’07 season, and he re-signed with Oakland on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

The Next Jason Giambi

Paul looks up from his computer.  “Teahen: .493 on base, .624 slug.  Thirty walks and only seventeen strikeouts in one hundred ninety-four at bats.”

                                                                                    ~ Moneyball

Teahen ML career - .340 on base, .429 slugging, 135 walks, 319 strikeouts, 1,384 at bats

The Greek God of Walks

Paul had said the scouts ought to go have a look at a college kid named Kevin Youkilis.  Youkilis was a fat third baseman who couldn’t run, throw, or field.  What was the point of going to see that? (Because, Paul would be able to say three months later, Kevin Youkilis has the second highest on-base percentage in all of professional baseball, after Barry Bonds.  To Paul, he’d become Euclis: the Greek god of walks.)

                                                                                    ~ Moneyball

Okay, so you gotta give DePodesta’s computer one here.  Taken by the Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 draft, the gritty Youkilis has become a vital member of the World Champions and has a career on-base percentage of .383 through parts of four seasons, even though the Greek God of Walks to this point has yet to draw as many as 100 in either of his first two full seasons.

A Changing of Strategy?

Since 2002, Beane has drafted high school players 21% of the time.  In 2002 and 2003, he didn’t spend a pick on a prep player until the 19th round, almost 600 picks in, by which time he had taken at least 20 college players.  However, he switched gears in 2004, using a fourth round pick on right handed pitcher Ryan Webb although he selected just 5 high school players overall (11%).  In 2005, he used a quarter of his picks on HS players, including his second round pick on high school right-hander Craig Italiano and in ’06 he again used a second round pick, the A’s first pick overall, on another prep pitcher (Trevor Cahill) while also using 28% of his 40 total picks on high school players.  Last year Beane waited until the 12th round before taking a HS player.

What Ever Happened To Marshall McDougall?

Shapiro has shopped Rincon around the league and told Billy that there is at least one other bidder.  Billy has found out – he won’t say how – that the other bidder is the San Francisco Giants and that the Giants’ offer may be better than his.  All Billy has offered the Indians is a minor league second baseman named Marshall McDougall. McDougall isn’t that bad a player

~ Moneyball

So whatever happened to the second baseman Beane traded to Cleveland for lefty specialist Ricardo Rincon at the deadline in July of 2002?  McDougall was taken that winter by the Rangers in the Rule V draft.  In 2005 McDougall made his major league debut for Texas, playing in 18 games in which he managed to play third, second short, right field, and even DH.  He had just 3 hits in 18 at bats however including 10 strikeouts and no walks.  After missing all but 4 games in 2006, McDougall was released by the Rangers and he was signed by the Dodgers where he spent 2007 splitting time between AA Jacksonville and AAA Las Vegas.  He signed a minor league contract with the Padres in November.

He Was Number 1?

In a draft with no clear cut top choice in the eyes of most scouts, the Pittsburgh Pirates made right-hander Bryan Bullington out of Ball State University (where he was a teammate of Hagerty’s) the top pick of the 2002 amateur draft.  In four minor league seasons, he has a career record of 45-26 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.  He made his big league debut in September of 2005, pitching once and allowing two runs on a hit and a walk in an inning and a third.  He missed the entire 2006 season after undergoing shoulder surgery but bounced back in 2007 to go 11-9 with a 4.00/1.36 in 26 starts at Indianapolis before getting called up.  He pitched five times (3 starts) for the Pirates in ’07 and went 0-3 with a line of 5.29/1.71/.343. 

Baseball’s Mr. Irrelevant

In August of 2006, T.J. Bohn, selected by the Mariners in the 30th round of the 2002 draft after 909 other players had already been taken, became the lowest drafted player to make it to the majors playing in 18 games with Seattle that fall.  In 14 at bats he put up a line of meek line of .143/.250/.357.  Claimed off waivers by Atlanta that November, he spent the ’07 season in their minor league system where he batted .249/.352/.345 before being grabbed off waivers by Philadelphia on September 24.  Bohn held the un-official title of baseball’s Mr. Irrelevant - akin to the last player taken in the NFL draft – until September 1 of ’07 when Nyjer Morgan made his debut for the Pirates, compiling a nice batting line of .299/.359/.430 in 28 games.  The speedy Morgan, who saw 972 different players drafted before Pittsburgh took him out of Walla Walla Community College in the 33rd round, stole 7 bases and had 4 triples in just 107 at bats and will battle Nate McLouth in spring training to win the starting CF job this year.  Morgan held that title for only 28 days however until on September 29, Drew Macias made his ML debut for San Diego as a pinch runner and scored what had been up to that point the Padres single biggest run of the year until a Tony Gwynn Jr. triple in the bottom ninth for Milwaukee kept the Pads from clinching a playoff spot.  One-thousand forty-four different players were selected before San Diego took Macias in the thirty-fifth round of the ’02 draft making Macias the lowest drafted player from that year’s amateur draft to appear in a big league game.  It was his only major league appearance and on February 14 the Padres designated him for assignment in order to make room on the 40-man roster for Tony Clark.

Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda’s – The What if’s of 2002

Not every player who is drafted in a given year ends up signing with the team that drafts them.  High school draftees spurn what they feel are low bonus offers and instead go to college.  College juniors opt to return for their senior year in hopes of raising their draft status.  Those are just two reasons why a player may not sign.  Mariners top pick John Mayberry Jr. (28th overall) turned down big money from Seattle in favor of going to Stanford University for the purpose of becoming "a well-rounded individual."  Although he granted Seattle redraft rights, he ended up being taken by Texas in the first round (19th overall) of the 2005 draft. 

There have been 21 such players from the 2002 draft who were later redrafted who have since gone on to play in the majors.  Mayberry, the son of former Astros top pick John Sr. (1st rd – 1967), is not among them.  He has struggled in three minor league seasons (.251/.336/.468) although he will be in the big league camp with the Rangers this spring as a non-roster invitee.

But what if things had turned out differently and those 19 had signed instead with the team that took them in ‘02?  Wouldn’t Tampa Bay love to have future 1st round picks Jacoby Ellsbury (taken by Tampa in the 23rd rd) and Mike Pelfrey (15th rd) in their outfield mix and in their rotation?  How would Travis Buck (23rd rd) look in left field for Seattle?  Would Mike Cameron be in Houston this season rather than Milwaukee if 40th round pick Hunter Pence had signed instead with the Brewers?  What if 2nd round pick Micah Owings had not turned a large bonus from Colorado to go to Georgia Tech (and later Tulane)?  And what if Beane had persuaded Jonathan Papelbon (40th rd) to forgo his final season at Mississippi State and sign with the A’s? 

The what if’s of 2002.

Boston Red Sox

Brian Bannister (45th rd) – redrafted by New York Mets 2003 (7th rd)

Chicago White Sox

Daniel Barone (41st rd) – redrafted by Florida 2004 (11th rd)

Jensen Lewis (33rd rd) – redrafted by Cleveland 2005 (3rd rd)

Colorado Rockies

Micah Owings (2nd rd) – redrafted by Chicago 2004 (19th rd)/did not sign; Redrafted by Arizona 2005 (3rd rd)

Detroit Tigers

Anthony Reyes (13th rd) – redrafted by St. Louis 2003 (15th rd)

Florida Marlins

Rob Johnson (41st rd) – redrafted by Philadelphia 2003 (18th rd)/did not sign
Redrafted by Seattle 2004 (4th rd)

Houston Astros

Pat Misch (5th rd) – redrafted by San Francisco 2003 (7th rd)
Scott Feldman (41st rd) – redrafted by Texas 2003 (30th rd)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Luke Hochevar (39th rd) – redrafted by Los Angeles 2005 (1st rd – 40th overall)/did not sign - redrafted by Kansas City 2006 (1st rd – 1st overall)

Milwaukee Brewers

Hunter Pence (40th rd) – redrafted by Houston 2004 (2nd rd)

Minnesota Twins

Adam Lind (8th rd) – redrafted by Toronto 2004 (3rd rd)

Jeff Clement (12th rd) – redrafted by Seattle 2005 (1st rd – 3rd overall)

Montreal Expos

Sean White (35th rd) – redrafted by Atlanta 2003 (8th rd)
*originally drafted by Baltimore 1999 (41st rd)

Oakland A’s

Justin Towles (32nd rd) – redrafted by Houston 2004 (20th rd)
Jonathan Papelbon (40th rd) – redrafted by Boston 2003 (4th rd)
Ty Taubenheim (44th rd) – redrafted by Milwaukee 2003 (19th rd)

Philadelphia Phillies

T.J. Beam (11th rd) – redrafted by New York Yankees 2003 (10th rd)

San Diego Padres

Andy LaRoche (21st rd) – redrafted by Los Angeles (39th rd)

Seattle Mariners

Travis Buck (23rd) – redrafted by Oakland 2005 (1st rd – 36th overall)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Mike Pelfrey (15th rd) – redrafted by New York Mets 2005 (1st rd – 9th overall)
Jacoby Ellsbury (23rd rd) – redrafted by Boston 2005 (1st rd – 23rd overall)

The Five Worst Drafts of 2002

Find out here who had the least success from the 2002 draft.