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2006 AL MVP Analysis

by Tony Aubry, BaseballEvolution.com
November 21, 2006

For those of you who havenít read any of my work yet, Iím going to tell you that yes, I am a New York Yankee fan. However, I donít think Jeter is the second coming of Jesus Christ, so this analysis is as unbiased as it gets. Now letís dig in.

It was just announced that Justin Morneau has won the 2006 American League Most Valuable Player Award. Morneau received 15 first place votes, 8 second place votes, 3 thirds and 1 fourth. Derek Jeter received 12 first place votes, 14 second place votes, 1 fourth and 1 sixth. It appears that someone isnít too fond of Mr. Jeter.

If you look at the traditional Triple Crown stats, you would probably pick Morneau, too. Justin hit .321 hit 34 HR and knocked in 130. Derek Jeter hit .343 hit 14 HR and knocked in 97. BUT, and thatís a big but, thereís much more to it than AVG/HR/RBI. You have to factor in the fact that Jeter plays SS. He doesnít play it well, but he still plays it and numbers like that are rare from shortstops. Also, Triple Crown stats suck, and RBI are ridiculously overrated, so letís see who would have been Tony Aubryís MVP.

 

Player

Position

2B

3B

HR

OPS+

GPA

BRAA

Jeter

SS

39

3

14

138

.317

39

Morneau

1B

37

1

34

140

.309

31

 

Morneau out-homered Jeter and had a very slight edge in OPS +. Jeter had better numbers in just about every other offensive category, including offensive win shares, something I didnít include. If both Jeter and Morneau played the same position I probably would still have Jeter as my MVP, but since Jeter plays a much more demanding position, the leads he has in certain categories increase, and he overcomes his slight disadvantage in OPS+ and closes the HR gap. To put this in perspective, Jeter trailed Carlos Guillen by one point in GPA, and led all SS in Batting Runs above average, and OPS+. Morneau didnít lead all 1B/DH in any of the categories. I say 1B/DH because if the DHís played 1B, their value would barely decrease.

Iím not into clutch statistics all too much, but I know a lot of you are, so letís see who was more ďclutchĒ this season.

 

Player

OPS w/ RSIP

OPS RISP w/ 2 outs

OPS in Close& Late

ďClutchĒ

Jeter

1.063

1.075

.868

6.7

Morneau

.976

.927

.883

4.2

 

Overall, Jeter was the better situational hitter. His OPS did drop a lot in close and late situations, and Morneau actually had a better OPS in those instances. However, Jeter had a better ďClutchĒ rating.

Derek Jeter, for my money was the A.L MVP. It shocks me to say it, but itís true. He had better numbers across the board besides HR, and he plays a more demanding position. Once again, the experts got in wrong. ::sighs::



Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Tony resides in Queens, New York and can be reached at tony@baseballevolution.com.

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