by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
October 2, 2014
When the Washington Nationals made the playoffs in 2012,
they faced the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series
without young ace Stephen Strasburg, who had been shut down after
reaching his innings limit. The Cards would go on to win that best of five
series, three games to two, leaving many to ponder whether the 15-6 Strasburg
might have meant the difference between a first round exit, and a possible World
Series Championship. The Cardinals would go on to lose the National League
Championship Series, four games to three, to the eventual World Series Champion
San Francisco Giants.
On Friday, when the Nationals take on the Giants in Game
1 of the 2014 NLDS, they’ll have Strasburg, who went 14-11 with a 3.14 ERA and a
National League high 242 strikeouts, hoping to reverse history on their way to
the World Series. The Giants will counter with Strasburg’s childhood idol,
Jake Peavy. After helping lead the Red Sox to a World Series Championship in
2013, Peavy was acquired by San Francisco in exchange for a pair of prospects
just prior to the July 31 deadline and compiled a stellar 2.17 ERA in 12 starts.
He’s hoping win his second ring in as many years and help lead the Giants to
their third World Series title in the past five seasons.
Here’s a positional breakdown of the two teams.
Catcher:
San Francisco – Buster Posey – .311/.364/.490,
143 OPS+, 22 HR, 89 RBI, 30% CS, -4 DRS
Washington – Wilson Ramos – .267/.299/.399, 91
OPS+, 11 HR 47 RBI, 38% CS, 0 DRS
After a strong 2013 campaign, Ramos took a step
backwards on both sides of the ball in ’14, though he caught a career high 38%
of base runners attempting to steal. Posey, meanwhile, is the heart and soul of
this San Francisco team, and a likely top five finisher in the MVP balloting.
Advantage: Posey
First Base:
San Francisco – Brandon Belt – .243/.306/.449,
114 OPS+, 12 HR, 27 RBI, 3 DRS, 6.2 UZR/150
Washington – Adam LaRoche – .259/.362/.455, 124
OPS+, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 0 DRS, -5.2 UZR/150
Belt struggled through an injury-marred season, but
regained his stroke in the season’s final week and drove in three runs in the
Giants’ Wild Card victory over Pittsburgh. LaRoche, in likely his last season
with Washington, posted strong offensive numbers, leading the Nats in home runs
and RBI, but has regressed with the glove the past couple of seasons.
Advantage: LaRoche
Second Base:
San Francisco – Joe Panik – .305/.343/.368, 104
OPS+, 1 HR, 18 RBI, -1 DRS, 0.6 UZR/150
Washington – Asdrubal Cabrera – .241/.307/.387,
96 OPS+, 14 HR, 61 RBI, -10 DRS, -5.3 UZR/150
Acquired from Cleveland at the deadline, Cabrera helped
solidify the second base position for the Nationals, but the unflappable San
Francisco rookie has been fantastic at the keystone for the Giants, even
collecting three hits in his post-season debut against the Pirates.
Advantage: Panik
Third Base:
San Francisco – Pablo Sandoval – .279/.324/.415,
111 OPS+, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 4 DRS, 3.3 UZR/150
Washington – Anthony Rendon – .287/.351/.473, 125
OPS+, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 12 DRS, 4.6 UZR/150
Heading into free agency and a big payday, Sandoval
stayed in shape all season long and displayed often golden leather at the hot
corner, but his offensive numbers were not quite what San Francisco had hoped
for from the Round Mound of Pound. Rendon’s emergence, on the other hand, will
likely precipitate LaRoche’s exit from Washington, forcing Ryan Zimmerman
and his balky shoulder across the diamond.
Advantage: Rendon
Shortstop:
San Francisco – Brandon Crawford –
.246/.324/.389, 104 OPS+, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 8 DRS, 0.1 UZR/150
Washington – Ian Desmond – .255/.313/.430, 103
OPS+, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 2 DRS, 0.1 UZR/150
Desmond’s offensive numbers slipped a little in 2014,
but he still managed 24 home runs and a career high 91 runs batted in. Defensive
runs saved rated his ’14 season as his best ever, but UZR saw it in a different
light. The Bay Area born Crawford came into the playoffs hot and supplied
Madison Bumgarner with all the runs he would need, becoming the first shortstop
to hit a grand slam in post-season history in the win over Pittsburgh.
Advantage: Desmond
Left Field:
San Francisco – Travis Ishikawa – .252/.311/.393,
100 OPS+, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 1 DRS, 0.0 UZR/150
Washington – Bryce Harper – .273/.344/.423, 111
OPS+, 13 HR, 32 RBI, -1 DRS, 3.8 UZR/150
After struggling with injuries through the first four
months of the season, Harper responded to suggestions that he should be sent to
the minors by batting .298/.356/.491 in his last 48 games, with 10 of his 13
home runs coming after August 6. Ishikawa finds himself in the spotlight due to
injuries to centerfielder Angel Pagan and former Washington National
Michael Morse. Though all four of his career starts in left field have come
in the Giants past five games (including the Wild Card matchup with Pittsburgh),
he’s likely to get most of the playing time during the NLDS, especially if Morse
isn’t recovered from an oblique injury.
Advantage: Harper
Centerfield:
San Francisco – Gregor Blanco – .260/.333/.374,
103 OPS+, 5 HR, 38 RBI, -7 DRS, -4.3 UZR/150
Washington – Denard Span – .302/.355/.416, 113
OPS+, 5 HR, 37 RBI, -3 DRS, -4.5 UZR/150
Span tied with Ben Revere of the Phillies for the
National League lead in hits with 184 and swiped a career-best 31 bases. He sets
the table for a dangerous Nats lineup that ranked third in the senior circuit in
runs scored, crossing home plate 94 times himself. Blanco’s advanced metrics
don’t accurately reflect how good he can be with the leather, and he has shown a
distinct knack for making big plays in the field under the brightest lights.
Advantage: Span
Right Field:
San Francisco – Hunter Pence – .277/.332/.445,
121 OPS+, 20 HR, 74 RBI, -2 DRS, 2.2 UZR/150
Washington – Jayson Werth – .292/.394/.455, 134
OPS+, 16 HR, 82 HR, -4 DRS, -2.0 UZR/150
Pence had a fantastic season for the Giants, though a
late season slump brought down his overall numbers. He is the spiritual leader
of the team, bringing more to the table then just numbers. He leads by example
and plays the game the right way, going all out, all the time. Expect at least
one big hit from Captain Underpants during the series. Werth had a typically
solid season for the Nats and remains a dangerous threat in the middle of the
Washington lineup.
Advantage: Even
Rotation:
San Francisco – Peavy, Hudson, Bumgarner,
Vogelsong/Petit
Washington – Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister,
Gonzalez/Roark
Jordan Zimmermann, who tossed a no-hitter on the
final day of the season, follows Strasburg to the mound in Game 2, with Doug
Fister, fleeced from Detroit this past off-season, going in Game 3. Gio
Gonzalez, a 21-game winner in 2012, will likely get the ball in game four.
Veteran Tim Hudson (18-5, 2.37 career vs Washington) will go against
Zimmermann in game two, while ace Madison Bumgarner, riding a 16-inning
post-season scoreless streak overall and 18 consecutive scoreless post-season
frames on the road, will match up against Fister. San Francisco will counter
with either Ryan Vogelsong or Yusmeiro Petit in game four. The
Washington rotation had the best collective ERA in the league in ’14, at 3.03.
Advantage: Washington
Bullpen:
San Francisco – Casilla (Cl), Romo,
Lopez, Affeldt, Machi, Strickland, Lincecum
Washington – Storen (Cl), Soriano, Clippard,
Thornton, Blevins, Barrett, Stammen, Detwiler
Drew Storen has been lights out for Washington
since taking over for Rafael Soriano in the closers in early September,
while Matt Thornton has yet to allow a run since coming over from the
Yankees on a waiver claim. Soriano and Tyler Clippard give the Nats a lot
of late inning depth out of the pen. The Giants counter with an experienced pen
led by closer Santiago Casilla, who stepped in mid-year after Sergio
Romo struggled in the role. Romo has since bounced back, and along with
lefties Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt, and right-handers Jean
Machi and Hunter Strickland, give manager Bruce Bochy a lot of
late inning options. Overall, the Nationals (3.00) and Giants (3.01) finished
second and third in the NL in team bullpen ERA.
Advantage: Even
Bench:
San Francisco – Arias, Susac, Duffy,
Duvall, Morse, Perez
Washington – Zimmerman, Frandsen, Lobaton, Espinosa,
Hairston, Moore
Although he battled injuries all season and suffered
through one of his worst big league seasons, Ryan Zimmerman is a huge
threat to have coming off your bench in the post-season. And don’t overlook
Scott Hairston, who has been a Giant killer his entire career (14 HR in 222
AB). The Giants will hope Morse has recovered enough from his strained oblique
to provide some punch off an otherwise inexperienced bench.
Advantage: Washington
Managers:
San Francisco – Bruce Bochy
Washington – Matt Williams
Bochy is the winningest manager in the history of the
National League West, with 1,618 wins, and has three National League pennants
and two World Series championships under his belt. He’s a likely future Hall of
Famer. Williams, a former Giants third baseman and fan favorite, is in his first
season as a big league manager. Someday Williams might be in the same league as
Boch, but for now…
Advantage: San Francisco
The Final Word
The Nationals finished the season with the National
League’s best record and are the better team on paper. The Giants are battle
tested and proven, having won the World Series in 2010 and 2012, not to mention
seven straight elimination games in post-season play. Expect an epic five game
battle, but expect experience to win out in the end.
Prediction:
San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals, three
games to two.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard resides in San Francisco, California and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.