by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
April 17, 2008
I got an e-mail the other day from reader Darrell Norris
regarding
this piece as well as
this follow up piece I wrote on the incredible inadequacies of Pedro Pheliz
(hey, he’s a Philly now, you know). A subsequent e-mail from Darrell noted
something in a way that I had never thought of before and it really got me
thinking.
Darrell wrote: “I recall particularly in 2005 a poster
child example, when within a 4 game stretch from April 12-16, he had 3 HR and 10
RBI, which ended up being about 15% of his yearly total
(20HR/81RBI)….not to mention, two of the games were in Williamsport,
Colorado, pre-humidor, and two of the
games were also losses!"
I had to admit I had never thought about it in that way.
15% of his home runs that season (and 12% of his RBI) were accumulated in just
2% of the season. In April. Early April, no less.
So that got me thinking about the “streaky” Mr. Pheliz. If
you add up his numbers from just his hot streaks of the last few years, what
percentage of his career totals to you get? What do his career numbers look
like in the rest of the games? The results are slightly mind boggling.
Here’s a look at the percentage of his career totals that
were derived from his infamous and well-documented hot streaks during the years
from 2004-07 but deriving the percentages using his career totals through last
year.
Games |
At Bats |
Hits |
Doubles |
Home Runs |
RBI |
272 |
1034 |
370 |
81 |
56 |
196 |
31% |
36% |
52% |
55% |
51% |
47% |
In just 31% of his career games, Pedro has accumulated
roughly half of his career totals. What does that leave for the rest of his 602
major league games prior to the ’08 season?
G |
AB |
H |
2B |
HR |
RBI |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
602 |
1806 |
346 |
67 |
53 |
222 |
.192 |
.234 |
.328 |
.561 |
In nearly 70% of Pheliz’ career games he’s collectively
batted below the Mendoza line. During his hot streaks from ’04-07 he’s slugged
a home run once every 18.46 AB while in all the rest of his games he’s only
homered once every 34.08 AB.
What does this all say? Well it’s just another way of
pointing out how the “streaky” Mr. Pheliz does more harm than good. But don’t
worry Philly fans, after batting just .226/.281/.377 in his first 15 games he’s
bound to have a patented mini-hot streak soon. Then he’ll get cold again and
then another small hot streak and then….
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard resides in San Francisco, California and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.