When He's Hot, He's Hot...
by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
April 17, 2008

I got an e-mail the other day from reader Darrell Norris regarding this piece as well as this follow up piece I wrote on the incredible inadequacies of Pedro Pheliz (hey, he’s a Philly now, you know).  A subsequent e-mail from Darrell noted something in a way that I had never thought of before and it really got me thinking.  

Darrell wrote: “I recall particularly in 2005 a poster child example, when within a 4 game stretch from April 12-16, he had 3 HR and 10 RBI, which ended up being about 15% of his yearly total (20HR/81RBI)….not to mention, two of the games were in Williamsport, Colorado, pre-humidor, and two of the games were also losses!"

I had to admit I had never thought about it in that way.  15% of his home runs that season (and 12% of his RBI) were accumulated in just 2% of the season.  In April.  Early April, no less.

So that got me thinking about the “streaky” Mr. Pheliz.  If you add up his numbers from just his hot streaks of the last few years, what percentage of his career totals to you get?  What do his career numbers look like in the rest of the games?  The results are slightly mind boggling.

Here’s a look at the percentage of his career totals that were derived from his infamous and well-documented hot streaks during the years from 2004-07 but deriving the percentages using his career totals through last year.

Games

At Bats

Hits

Doubles

Home Runs

RBI

272

1034

370

81

56

196

31%

36%

52%

55%

51%

47%

In just 31% of his career games, Pedro has accumulated roughly half of his career totals.  What does that leave for the rest of his 602 major league games prior to the ’08 season?

G

AB

H

2B

HR

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

602

1806

346

67

53

222

.192

.234

.328

.561

 In nearly 70% of Pheliz’ career games he’s collectively batted below the Mendoza line.  During his hot streaks from ’04-07 he’s slugged a home run once every 18.46 AB while in all the rest of his games he’s only homered once every 34.08 AB. 

What does this all say? Well it’s just another way of pointing out how the “streaky” Mr. Pheliz does more harm than good.  But don’t worry Philly fans, after batting just .226/.281/.377 in his first 15 games he’s bound to have a patented mini-hot streak soon.  Then he’ll get cold again and then another small hot streak and then…. 




Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard resides in San Francisco, California and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.