 Visit the All New BaseballEvolution.com Fan Forum!
| |
|
Asher's Top 200
1. Babe Ruth, OF Easily the greatest hitter per-plate appearance hitter of all time - there can be no disputing that. Only the longevity of other players and the wide ranging abilities of other players - ability to run, steal bases, play defense - calls Ruth's place atop this list into question. I think Ruth was more valuable over the course of his career than any other player, even taking fielding and basestealing into account. 2. Ty Cobb, CF Other than Ruth, no player has ever dominated their league more thoroughly. 3. Ted Williams, LF Here's the thing about Ted Williams - if not for missing almost five whole seasons due to war, he would probably be ahead of Babe Ruth. The funny thing about all of the Ruth vs. Bonds talk - which used to be a big deal but has all but vanished in light of Bonds' steroid allegations - is that it ignores the fact that Williams was clearly a better hitter than Barry Bonds. There is simply no way around the fact that Ted Williams was the second best hitter of all time after Babe Ruth. In fact, if you ranked the top five hitters of all time - Ruth, Williams, Cobb, Bonds, Hornsby - Williams would be far closer to Ruth than he would be to Cobb. Let's do a quick Ted Williams vs. Barry Bonds comparison, shall we? Where appropriate, I will include the league averages in parentheses: Career AVG: .344 (.277) vs. .298 (.263) Career OBP: .482 (.356) vs. .444 (.332) Career SLG: .634 (.409) vs. .607 (.409) Career OPS: 1.116 (.756) vs. 1.051 (.741) Career HR/PA: 18.79 vs. 16.56 Career OPS+: 190 vs. 182 Career RC/27: 12.04 vs. 9.91 Career Batting Titles: 6 vs. 2 Career OPS Titles: 9 (out of 17) vs. 10 (out of 20) Career Stolen Base: 24 vs. 514 Career Range Factor: 2.00 (2.21) vs. 1.84 (1.48) I could go on and on. I could mention Barry's gold gloves, Williams' triple crowns, Barry's 500-500 club, Williams' War years, etc. Fact is, Barry has a slight advantage in homerun hitting which does not account for his significantly lower slugging percentage. I realize it bothers people to hear that Barry Bonds, a perennial gold glove outfielder whose combination of power and speed has been unrivaled in baseball history, who has set every record under the sun for bases on balls, and who will soon own both the single season and career homerun records, is not better than two slow white guys who did not steal bases, were not very good fielders, and have seen their career marks eclipsed multiple times by multiple players. Even considering Bonds' sizable advantages over Ruth and Williams in speed and fielding, Ruth and Williams' overall offensive advantages are enormous. 4. Walter Johnson, SP If you look at the careers of Walter Johnson and Roger Clemens, what they did with respect to their league is pretty similar, and Clemens did it against a lot more players for a longer period of time. I think, however, that Walter Johnson was a lot more of an anamoly than Clemens. Clemens pitches in an era with plenty of strikeout pitchers, and in an era in which four of the top ten pitchers of all time are currently pitching. I think Johnson's uniqueness against his league sets him apart from Clemens. 5. Barry Bonds, LF I have thrown around the idea of doing some sort of adjustment for Bonds to make up for his years of performance enhancement. The best idea was to take his numbers through 1999, and then project them at that pace from that point forward. But such a projection would probably only prove that Bonds belongs right where I have him anyway. It is funny that so many people who castigate Bonds because of performance enhancing drugs conveniently ignore the fact that he was already probably a top ten player in 1999, when his alleged doping began. What Barry Bonds did or did not put into his body may not ever be known. But does it really matter? We are living in the steroid era, and Barry Bonds is the king of the world. There are two possible explanations for what has happened in this era - one, that the players that have been busted for using performance enhancing drugs are the only people who have used them; and two, that many many players are using performance enhancing drugs. If the former is the case, then what Bonds has done is incredible and cannot be ascribed to steroids, because steroids certainly did not make Rafael Palmeiro, Jose Canseco, Alex Sanchez, Jason Grimsley, Ken Caminiti, Jason Giambi, Matt Lawton, Neifi Perez, or Ryan Franklin into a Barry Bonds caliber player. And if the latter is true, then Bonds' numbers are even more legit, because he did it against a level playing field. For his part, Bonds has been dominant in his league in a way that very few others ever have been. If that has to be taken away from him because of his role in the performance enhancing drug scandal, then we may eventually have a hard time finding any current players to put on this list. 6. Honus Wagner, SS Okay, I have finally come over to the dark side on this one. Fact is, Rogers Hornsby may have been a better offensive player than Wagner, but Eddie Collins, Joe Morgan, and Nap LaJoie were all outstanding players at second base. Ted Williams may have been a better offensive player than Wagner, but Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle, and Barry Bonds were all outstanding players in the outfield. But no one - no one no one no one - has ever been half as good as Wagner at Shortstop. Alex Rodriguez comes the closest, and he has the longest way to go (not to mention the fact that he no longer plays shortstop). Arky Vaughan was fantastic for a brief time, as was Ernie Banks, who spent most of his career at first base. Cal Ripken, Jr., Luke Appling, and Joe Cronin would not be in the Top 100 if they had not been shortstops. When you look at the worst offensive seasons of all time, 9 out of every 10 are shortstop seasons. Honus Wagner was the best player in the National League for a significant period of time, and no other shortstop has ever come close to that. In fact, not too many players have been as dominant as Wagner period. 7. Rogers Hornsby, 2B Hornsby's stretch of black-letter dominance in the 1920s is remarkable, and somewhat unprecedented in the National League. I wish Hornsby's career were longer. Bill James has taken a lot of heat for his simply indefensible position on Rogers Hornsby, so I will mention it here and not elaborate. This much we know - in the 1920s, not only was no National League player better than Hornsby overall, but there was no single season in which any player was better than Hornsby in the National League. Very few players have ever accomplished such a feat over the course of an entire decade, and no second basemen has ever come close. 8. Stan Musial, LF If Musial's career had ended in 1958, his rate stats would have been far more impressive, and his rate stats still managed to be unbelievable. Lost only one season to World War II, but that one season would have put him over 3800 hits, 2000 runs, and 2000 RBI. Musial Fun Fact - has the third most homeruns by a player who never led his league in homeruns, behind Rafael Palmeiro and Frank Thomas. 9. Lou Gehrig, LF I still have not resolved how you take the second best player on a team and make him one of the top ten players of all time, but he was still the best first baseman of all time, so we'll leave that for another year. 10. Roger Clemens, SP No way around it, Clemens has been dominant like few other pitchers ever. He has won an unprecedented 7 Cy Young Awards and was robbed of at least one other in 1990; he has won the award for every team he has played for, indicating that his success has had little to do with the team behind him. He is eighth on the career list behind six dinosaurs from baseball's pre-history and Warren Spahn, an ageless wonder who was half the player Clemens was but had a rubber arm an a team that won games for him. He is second in career strikeouts behind Nolan Ryan, another guy who was half the pitcher Clemens is. He has led his league in ERA more than all but one pitcher, and in a time when his contemporaries - Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez - have either faded or succombed to injuries, Clemens has remained healthy and dominant. Clemens is great in ways that pitchers of the modern era seem to no longer be capable of being. 11. Willie Mays, CF Take the stat sheets of Willie Mays and Stan Musial. Cover up the top of the stat sheets so that you can't see the names at the top of the sheets. Then compare the two players. If like homeruns and stolen bases, you probably chose Mays. If you like any other statistic whatsoever, you pick Musial. And if you bring up Mays' post-season heroics, I'll point this out - Musial won three World Series, while Mays won only one. 12. Lefty Grove, SP Lefty Grove temporarily dropped pretty far on my list last season. Here is why he is back. I decided to look at how many times each of the great pitchers led their league in ERA and ERA+. The results were astonishing. Lefty Grove led the league in each 9 times, which I always knew. What I didn’t realize was how rare this was. The next on the list is Clemens with 7 ERA titles and 8 ERA+ titles. After that, no player has more than five of either. Grove was uniquely dominant, and I think my list should reflect that. 13. Mickey Mantle, CF I have been having a great debate with myself over the last few years over whether I thought Mickey Mantle was better than Willie Mays. On the surface, it appears to me as though Mickey Mantle was a more valuable player than Willie Mays, ignoring for the moment issues of longevity. Right across the line, Mantle's average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS were all better than Mays when compared to the league they played in. On a per game basis, Mantle took far more walks and hit far more homeruns than Mays. So, instinctively, I have been ranking Mantle ahead of Mays. But I think this is not correct. For all the grief Roger Maris has received for never replicating his heroics of 1961 after the 1961 season, it has been largely ignored that Mantle was never really the same player ever again either. 1961 was the last time Mantle ever hit more than 35 homeruns, ever scored more than 100 runs, ever got more than 141 hits, or ever had more than 150 games played. Mantle won the 1962 AL MVP despite the fact that he played only 123 games. The thing is, Mantle was only 29 in 1961. Before the age of 30, Mantle had played his last full season. Optimistically speaking, Mantle had 12 great seasons for the Yankees, and it was probably more like 10. Mays had 15 great seasons for the Giants. After 1964, Mantle played four more seasons, and his rate stats were very high, but his rate stats are misleading. Mantle could still take a walk, and could still hit roughly 20 homeruns per year in roughly 350-450 at-bats, but he was doing little else - his average plummeted, his slugging percentage slumped, he stopped scoring or driving in runs, and he certainly was not playing every day. First, the gold glove issue. Generally, I would never, EVER, conduct a fielding analysis based on gold gloves. However, in this case it does bear mentioning because of one simple fact - popular players with reputations as great fielders have never had trouble winning gold gloves. Mantle was generally accepted as the greatest player in the American League during his career, and yet he won only one gold glove. If he was such a great fielder, it seems that his reputation alone - since gold glove voting is so often based on reputation - would have netted him a gaggle of gold gloves. It seems as though gold glove voters would have been begging to heap gold gloves on him. But he won only one, and that is suspicious, especially considering the fact that the NL voters were giving the glove to Mays 12 times during the same era. But I hate basing fielding analysis on gold gloves, so I won't dwell on that. The other issue is of more importance, and that is the range factor system. Mantle had a 2.26 career range factor, against a league average of 2.00, while Mays had an astonishing range factor of 2.57 compared to a league average of 1.91. This data - in the absence of more informative stats - shows Mays to be all sorts of better than Mantle in centerfield. Combine that with the fact that Mays played almost 1100 more games in centerfield than Mantle, and there is no contest. I hate to go all retro here, and judge Mantle and Mays on conventional stats, but I am really beginning to think that bases on balls, and all the stats derived from bases on balls, can really distort a player's value. And really, the only advantage Mantle seems to have over Mays is in fact the base on balls. So, retro we go: Mantle took 1700 walks during his career, a hugely impressive number. But he also struck out 1700 times which, I was surprised to learn, made him the all time leader when he retired. Mays walked far fewer times, but Mays also struckout less. Mays struckout over 1500 times, which also placed him high on the career leader board when he retired, but while Mantle led the league in Ks five times and finished in the top five in Ks five other times, Mays managed to finish in the top ten in Ks only once in his entire career. In 1952, at the age of 20, Mickey Mantle hit 37 doubles. It would be the last time he would hit over 30, and he would hit 20 or more only seven times. Mays hit 20 or more doubles 16 times, including five times over 30, and once over 40. Mantle finished his career with 72 triples. Mays nearly doubled him with 140. > One area in which you can't take anything from Mantle is run scoring - he finished in the top three in runs scored nine times, leading the league in that category six times. But Mays was no slouch, finishing in the top three eleven times and leading the league twice. Plus, Mays finished in the top three in RBI five times, while Mantle did it twice. When I look at Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle, I see two similar centerfielders from the same era. I see one player who was very good at taking walks and hitting homeruns, and another player who was very good at hitting homeruns and doing lots of other things. I know that the new wisdom of the modern era of baseball statistics tells us that hitting homeruns and taking walks is incredibly valuable, but I don't think that this is always the case. I think that Mickey Mantle is one of the examples of a player whose value has been over-stated by his bases on balls, and when he and Willie Mays are put side by side, Mantle doesn't measure up. In the first half of his career, up to the age 29, I think Mantle's career compares favorably with Babe Ruth's, which is the highest compliment one can receive. However, I think that Mantle compares more favorably with Mark McGwire - a powerful hitter whose value is distorted by walks that do not create runs for his team. 14. Tris Speaker, CF Over-shadowed by Cobb during his career, generally reputed as an Oscar Charleston caliber centerfielder and was a 3-4-5 offensive player. The all time leader in doubles, we have incomplete stats regarding stolen bases and strikeouts that reveal two things - He got caught stealing almost as often as he successful stole a base, but he almost never ever ever struck out. In the fifteen seasons that we have his strikeout totals, Speaker's career high was 25. 15. Hank Aaron, RF Easy to let his incredibly high career totals lead you to believe he was not dominant on an individual seasons basis. He was very rarely the best player in his league, but he was usually in the top three or four. 16. Grover Alexander, SP 17. Eddie Collins, 2B 18. Mike Schmidt, 3B In theory, the best third baseman of all time should rate a spot in the top ten. Schmidt was also one of the best homerun hitters of all time, leading the league eight times in 18 seasons. I feel like the may have been said before somewhere, but Schmidt probably had the worst rookie season of any great player of all time (.196/.324/.373). If Alex Rodriguez spends another decade at third base, I would be willing to consider him as the greatest 3B of all time, and I am probably no longer willing to entertain the notion of Chipper Jones wearing the crown. Notions of Scott Rolen as the greatest third baseman of all time were as premature as they were ill considered. 19. Jimmie Foxx, 1B 20. Mel Ott, RF People who rank Mel Ott ahead of Jimmie Foxx, let alone significantly ahead of Jimmie Foxx continue to bewilder me. Foxx was a significantly better player than Ott, and had far more dominance than Ott. For his part, Ott's career was longer, and he hardly ever struck out, but I don't think that puts Ott ahead of Foxx. 21. Cy Young, SP 22. Frank Robinson, RF 23. Rickey Henderson, LF 24. Napoleon Lajoie, 2B From a purely statistical perspective, LaJoie should be higher, but one has to consider the era in which he played and the percentage of his career that took place pre-1902. Humorously, Bill James claims that LaJoie's defensive numbers are often distorted by ratings such as Fielding Runs, and posits that LaJoie was such a giant figure that he basically intimidated the players around him into letting him field all the balls he cared to. My question - if LaJoie was able to take plays away from the shortstop and the first baseman on a regular basis, wouldn't this make both his zone rating and his rating under the plus/minus system pretty fantastic? 25. Christy Mathewson, SP Coming Soon: Albert Pujols, 2011 From a purely rate-stat perspective, Albert Pujols only has Lou Gerhig ahead of him as far as first basemen go. It is entirely possible that Pujols will one day be the greatest firstbaseman of all time. Assuming he continues at his current pace, when he debuts on the list in 2011 - observing Keith's recommended ten year rule for Player Ranking eligibility - Pujols will easily be the third best first baseman of all time, and won't need too many more seasons to pass Jimmie Foxx for second. 26. Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B I don’t know how high A-Rod is going to go. The interesting question will be whether he opts out of his contract with the Yankees, signs with another team and returns to shortstop. If so, I think he could end up in the Top 10 quite easily, though likely not trumping Wagner. On the other hand, if A-Rod remains at third base for the next six-to-ten years, we may have to start considering him the greatest third baseman of all time. If A-Rod proved to be the second greatest shortstop of all time and the greatest third baseman of all time, I just don’t know what to do with that. 27. Joe DiMaggio, CF 28. Joe Morgan, 2B The other night during an ESPN game, I heard Joe Morgan claim that he was 5-foot-4-inches and 140 pounds when he got his first major league hit. Considering the fact that he was 5'7" by the end of his career, I find this hard to believe. Nevertheless, I had not realized how small he was. Is it possible that this explains both a) the small strikezone which led to the large number of walks he took, and b) the incredibly poor job of hitting that he did for most of his career? Bill James had Joe Morgan ahead of Rogers Hornsby because a) Hornsby was a jerk, and b) Morgan was a better defensive second baseman. This is like saying Mel Ott was better than Babe Ruth because of Ott's defense. Hornsby dominated the National League during his career in much the same way Ruth did during his - utterly and completely. From 1920 to 1925 (six seasons), Hornsby led the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS every single season. I don't care how much better on defense Morgan was than Hornsby, there is no way Morgan compares to Hornsby overall. 29. Greg Maddux, SP 30. Randy Johnson, SP 31. Eddie Matthews, 3B There is a bit of light seeing here. See George Brett comment below. 32. Yogi Berra, C 33. Tom Seaver, SP Before 1990, one would have to have been crazy to call Tom Seaver underrated, and yet that is where we find ourselves today. Check out this list of 20th century pitchers with 4500 innings pitched and an ERA+ of 125 or higher: Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Grover Alexander, Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver, Christy Mathewson, and Greg Maddux. The interesting thing about that group is that Seaver is the only one who played between the years 1930, when Alexander retired, and 1984, when Roger Clemens made his debut. For over fifty years, Seaver was unmatched in terms of combining greatness and longevity. 34. Johnny Mize, 1B 35. Frank Thomas, 1B/DH Thomas's years of having played most of his games as a first baseman are well behind him. Interestingly, Thomas was one of the best hitters in baseball history from 1991 to 1997, during which time he was almost exclusively a first baseman. He endured his first "bad" seasonin 1998, his first as a primary designated hitter since he rookie year. His numbers as a first baseman dominate his numbers as a DH. 36. Joe Jackson, LF A big what-ifer. If Jackson doesn't get thrown out of baseball, he gets to play during the 1920s, which would probably have made his numbers go up rather than down. Just as good of a pure hitter as anyone on this list. 37. Bill Dickey, C I feel as awkward about having my top two catchers of all time be a Yankee and the guy he replaced on the Yankees as I do about having Yankee teammates in my top ten. But such is the nature of the Yankees, I suppose. While it is easy for me to dismiss the accomplishments of a Catfish Hunter or an Andy Pettitte because pitching for the Yankees is naturally more likely to create more wins for a pitcher than pitching for another team, playing catcher is playing catcher regardless of the team, and Berra and Dickey managed to be fantastic hitters at the catcher position better than anybody. 38. Charlie Gehringer, 2B Bill James commented that Gerhinger and Sandberg were essentially the same player in different eras. I think the only thing they had in common was the position they played. 39. Pedro Martinez, SP For my money, the best pitcher through 2600 innings of all time. For that matter, his 1997 through 2000 are the best four year stretch of any pitcher of all time. 40. Arky Vaughan, SS The least impressive career of any second best player at any position. Career basically ended in 1943 after a dispute with his manager, a nice "what-if" with the war years on the horizon. 41. Hank Greenberg, 1B Last year I had Greenberg at 44, so this is a bump up, but in 2004 I had him at 24. Greenberg was the player who was most hurt by World War II because he missed most of five seasons, where as most players missed only 2 or 3 seasons. Basically, I used to think he should be rated higher because his numbers had the most to gain by including his missed seasons, but now I realize that he should be ranked slightly lower, because we have to do more speculating about what he would have done than we do with other players. Greenberg was clearly a better hitter than Jeff Bagwell; Greenberg was much more like Frank Thomas as a hitter. But five seasons is a lot of time to assume that nothing would have happened to derail the big lumbering giant. 42. Jeff Bagwell, 1B Posted a .919 road OPS for his career, which is pretty impressive. Started his career at the spacious Astrodome, ended it in the snug Enron Field/Minute Maid Park. 43. Johnny Bench, C It would not be irrational to rate Bench as the greatest catcher of all time. INterestingly, his 1970-1974 stretch is awfully similar to Roy Campanella's run from 1951 to 1955 in terms of on-again off-again success. I have Bench ahead of Piazza because I view Mike Piazza with a 1990's skepticism, and I think Bench was more of an innovater than Piazza, but I do not think Bench was a better all around catcher than Dickey or Berra. 44. Bob Feller, SP 45. Ken Griffey Jr., CF Baseball-Reference.com's "Most Similar Players By Age" feature has KGJ comparing to Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, and then Sammy Sosa. I would say is distantly better than Sosa, better than Kaline, not as good as Robinson, and distantly not as good as Mantle. What I would really like to see is Griffey leaving Cincinnati to join a team that plays in a roughly hitter neutral ballpark. I would then like to see him play 145 or more games (something he hasn't done since 2000) for four more good seasons while significantly contributing to the playoff chances of some team. If this were to put him over 700 homeruns, 1900 RBI, 1800 runs, and put him over 3,000 hits, while landing him in the post-season once or twice, and without significantly lowering his AVG/OBP/SLG or runs created or batting runs, I think I could find a place in the Top 30 for him. I still don't understand how he has escaped steroid scrutiny when he is essentially a poster child for steroids and their effects. 46. Mike Piazza, C Greatest offensive catcher of all time? Absolutely. How would he have done in a previous era? I have no idea. 47. Carl Hubbell, SP 48. George Brett, 3B 49. Wade Boggs, 3B Credit Tony for my new George Brett ranking. George Brett and Wade Boggs, while very different players in terms of style, were essentially the same in terms of value. Both were 3,000 hits guys, both had career averages over .300, and both third basemen. Brett had way more extra bases than Boggs did – doubles, triples, and homeruns – but Boggs’ ability to get on-base really does overwhelm Brett’s advantage in the slugging department. Boggs also had a greater period of dominance, and played his whole career at third while Brett amassed over 1,000 games away from third base. The gigantic elephant in the living room for Boggs is his home/road splits – Boggs is a member of the soon to be announced “900-700” club, players whose OPS is in the 900s at home but in the 700s on the road. At the end of the day, there isn’t much to distinguish these guys. 50. Tony Gwynn, RF 51. Jackie Robinson, 2B A hard player to rate, and the player whose rating is most influenced by external factors. The thing that bothers me most about Jackie Robinson is the perception that if he had failed as a player, baseball would not have been integrated for another decade. Fact is, Larry Doby was with the Indians later in 1947, and Roy Campanella and Satchel Paige made the majors by 1948. The mind's tendency towards revisionist history seems to view the fall of communism as inevitable while viewing integration of major league baseball as a tenuous, delicate matter whose future was always in doubt. That said, Jackie Robinson was an amazing athlete who did things at second base that fewer other second basemen have ever done while enduring trials that few others players have ever known. His career was shortened by segregation on one end, and by diabetes on the other, but his six full seasons in the majors gave us all the indication of the type of player that he was. Although Jackie's place on this list is informed, as I have stated, by the external factors, it is safe to say that if the color barrier had not existed, and Jackie's career had been able to take its natural course after his time at UCLA, his credentials would land him a spot on this list higher than this one, rather than lower. 52. Sam Crawford, RF 53. Harry Heilmann, RF Both played right field for the Detroit Tigers with Ty Cobb. Both very good players in their own rights, but not particularly good fielders. Crawford played in the deadball era, while Heilmann played in the liveball era. I could argue for days about who was better with respect to his league. Fun Fact – Even though both Heilmann and Crawford repeatedly finished in the Top Five in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS, neither player ever managed to lead the league in any of those categories. 54. Bob Gibson, SP 55. Joe Cronin, SS Shortstop Epiphany – Cal Ripken, Jr. was not better than Joe Cronin on either side of the ball. Not better than Luke Appling either, really. Why did it take me so long to realize what Keith has known all along? Some times a player’s name can really get in the way of the player’s stats. 56. Mickey Cochrane, C 57. Mark McGwire, 1B 58. Willie McCovey, 1B 59. Harmon Killebrew, 1B 60. Willie Stargell, LF 61. Jim Thome, 1B Seriously, what is the real difference between these five players. All were first baseman (except Stargell, who played most of his games in the outfield but was pretty bad out there and played over 800 games at first) with prodigious homerun power. All of them got put on base quite frequently by pitchers pitching around them, but all of them struckout quite frequently because they were swinging for the fences. McGwire was the biggest and baddest of them all, but he also logged the fewest plate appearance, played the fewest games and fewest seasons, and is the essential poster child for performance enhancers. I see no principled reason why any of them should rank any higher or lower than any other player on this list. 62. Gary Sheffield RF 63. Rod Carew 2B 64. Three Finger Brown SP Coming Soon: Johan Santana, 2011 As hard as this may be to believe, 2007 is only Johan's fourth full season as a starter. Santana is currently the pitcher in baseball. Although he hasn't quite achieved what Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Greg Maddux accomplished in their best seasons, he is pretty close, and he does not appear to be slowing down. If he continues to operate at this level for the next four to five seasons, he has to start being included in Top Ten pitchers of all time conversations. 65. Reggie Jackson, RF With Schmidt, the best homerun hitters of a non-homerun hitting era. I wonder what kind of hitter he could have been if he had made contact more. 66. Chipper Jones 3B Coming Soon: Miguel Cabrera, 2013 Cabrera is capable of the same things as Chipper Jones, but he has gotten off to a younger start and he is already doing it better than Jones did early in his career. If not for the Florida Marlins substandard play/management/stadium/market, and if not for Albert Pujols, we might hear more about M-Cab. Here is what you need to know: Cabrera is in the middle of his fifth major league season at the age of 24. Cabrera has improved as an offensive player in each season in the majors. His strikeouts are on a steady downward trend just as his walks are on a steady upward trend. And he is a third baseman - for now. At his current rate, by the time Cabrera reaches his tenth full season, he should at a minimum be a 3-4-5er with 400 plus doubles, 300+ homeruns, and over 1,000 runs and RBI. And he will only be 30. 67. Warren Spahn SP 68. Paul Waner RF 69. Whitey Ford SP 70. Dick Allen 1B 71. Carl Yastrzemski LF 72. Luke Appling, SS 73. Manny Ramirez LF 74. Al Kaline RF 75. Juan Marichal SP 76. Craig Biggio 2B 77. Eddie Plank SP 78. Dave Winfield RF 79. Frank Baker 3B 80. Ed Walsh SP Coming Soon: Roy Oswalt, July 2011 Oswalt is one of those rare players who has been outstanding since the moment he stepped on his first major league mound. As his current pace, Oswalt will be past 150 wins at the age of 32. His current ERA+ is 140, which is elite, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is currently 11th all time. 81. Cal Ripken, SS 82. Duke Snider CF 83. Roberto Alomar 2B 84. Edgar Martinez DH 85. Rube Waddell SP 86. Al Simmons LF 87. Tim Raines LF Coming Soon: Ichiro Suzuki, July 2011 Assuming he continues at this pace, when Ichiro debuts here he will have to be considered one of the greatest "pure hitters" in the history of the game. As we know, "pure hitters" aren't as valuable as guys who can take lots of walks and get lots of extra-base hits. 88. Ernie Banks, SS 89. Paul Molitor, DH 90. Stan Hack, 3B 91. Ryne Sandberg, 2B I don't know why Ryne Sandberg retired in 1994. If you recall, he was the highest paid player in baseball at the time ($7.1 million per year!). For a while, I nursed a theory that if he retired he would be owed the money on the contract, while if he went on strike with the rest of the players, he would not be paid. I think that theory has been disproven, especially since when he returned he was no longer under the same contract. What is clear is that Sandberg's career numbers took a nose-dive after the 1992, and when the rest of baseball was exploding offensively, his numbers plummeted. Hard to tell which Sandberg we should look at. 92. Robin Yount, SS/CF 93. Pete Rose, 1B 94. Barry Larkin, SS I almost put Derek Jeter in this spot, and then I realized that I was taking a player who was a very good fielding shortstop and the best offensive shortstop in the league for most of his career and replacing him with a player who is a terrible fielding shortstop and not the best offensive shortstop in the league during his career. Jeter is very good. I would rather have Barry Larkin. 95. Hoyt Wilhelm, RP I have said this repeatly, but I will say it again here - I just don't think that the job of a relief pitcher is impressive enough to merit putting the best reliever of all time particularly high. Wilhelm is uniquely impressive in two respects - he pitched 21 years despite making his debut at the age of 29, and he went berkserker in 1959 in his lone full season as a starting pitcher. 96. Gabby Hartnett C 97. Roy Campanella C Frankly, both of these players bother me. Campanella’s greatness in 1951, 1953, 1955 is severely hampered by his lackluster 1952 and his terrible 1954. He suffered his car accident in 1957, but the productive part of his career was truly over by then. He probably missed up to eight years due to the color barrier, since he played in the Negro Leagues at the age of 16 or whatever, so maybe we could give him credit for at least five or six of them. Fact is, he hit like few other catchers ever, but for a very brief time and with lots of mixed success. Gabby Hartnett was awesome-awesome-awesome in 1930, but so was everyone else in the league. He was also awesome-awesome-awesome in 1935, a season in which he played only 116 games. Hartnett had some rocking years on a Chicago Cubs team that had several rocking players and played in a rocking ballpark during a rocking era. It is easy to get too excited about his numbers. 98. Frankie Frisch, 2B 99. Fergie Jenkins, SP Can you name the most successful Cubs pitcher in the Wrigley Field era? It wasn't Three Finger Brown - his career pre-dated the friendly confines. And it wasn't Greg Maddux - his best years came with the Braves. The answer is Ferguson Jenkins. Jenkins gave up tons of homeruns during his career, which makes given Wrigley's propensity for homeruns. Of course, his two worst homerun seasons came in Texas, but I digress. During his prime - from 1968 to 1973 - his ERA was always better on the road. 100. Eddie Murray, 1B 101. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B 102. Fred McGriff, 1B Eddie Murray played in the 1990s but was quintessentially a player of the 1980s. Rafael Palmeiro played in the 1980s but was quintessentially a player of the 1990s. Fred McGriff was the bridge between the two of them – essentially a 1980s first baseman adapting to the 1990s. Ultimately, I think Murray and Palmeiro really are the same player, just set in different decades, while McGriff was probably slightly better than both of them but for a shorter period of time. 103. Ralph Kiner, RF 104. Larry Doby, CF 105. Ron Santo, 3B 106. Derek Jeter, SS 107. Steve Carlton, SP 108. Nolan Ryan, SP Quick, what is the essential difference between Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton? In a very similar number of innings (5386.0 vs. 5217.1) Carlton lost a lot less games, walked a lot fewer batters, finished with a better overall ERA, and put more dominant seasons than Ryan. Ryan was the most unhittable pitcher in baseball history, and struck out more batters than anyone else, but more than made up for it by walking more batters than anyone else as well. Carlton was far more consistent than Ryan (which is ironic given that Carlton wasn't very consistent), while Ryan had the much higher upside. Overall, not much difference at all. 109. Carlton Fisk, C Carlton Fisk's career totals - 2499 games played, 376 homeruns, 1330 RBI, 3999 total bases - are very impressive, but they tend to obscure the fact that Fisk played over 130 games 12 times (and 150 games or more three times) in 24 seasons. Bill James has this bit on Fisk where he compares Fisk to Campanella by pointing out that if you consolidate a player's career into a single season, Fisk would have played a full season because of his career being so long. Ironic that a player who very rarely played full seasons would be used as the full season example. Fun Fact - If Fisk would have played one more game and gotten one more hit, he would have finished his career with 2500 games played and 4000 total bases. 110. Albert Belle, LF 111. Frank Howard, LF Both Belle and Howard were big, tough, strong power hitting outfielders with relatively short careers. Both were among the best homerun hitters in their leagues. Howard was probably not as good of a fielder as Belle, but Belle's fielding never won any awards. And if Frank Howard had played during Albert Belle's era, he probably would have hit 50 homeruns at least once and had a solid shot to finish with 500 for his career. 112. Roger Bresnahan, C 113. Bobby Grich, 2B Was Bobby Grich better than Ryne Sandberg? If you think he was, it is because you are looking at his bases on balls. If you think he wasn't, it is because you are looking at everything else. 114. Sherry Magee, LF 115. Roberto Clemente, RF 116. Minnie Minoso, LF 117. Billy Williams, LF Billy Williams looks better than Sherry Magee, Roberto Clemente, and Minnie Minoso until you look at his Wrigley splits – not good. 118. Alan Trammel, SS 119. Lou Whitaker, 2B Really, these two should probably occupy only one spot on the list. 120. Ted Simmons C I strongly suspect that Simmons was better than Fisk. I am not convinced because a) Fisk has over 100 more homeruns than Simmons in roughly the same at-bats; b) Simmons has 83 more double plays; c) Fisk's fielding range and percentage are higher, to the extent that matters at all for a catcher; and d)Fisk caught 455 more games than Simmons overall. Other than those four advantages, ranging from sizable to possible insignificant, I'd take Simmons. 121. Jason Giambi, 1B I left Giambi off of last year’s list because of the steroids thing. Then I realized something – just because he is the only person to admit steroid use, does that justify not placing him on a list with Bonds, McGwire, Griffey, Sheffield, Palmeiro, Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, and all of the other players of this era who may or may not have juiced? No. Maybe some day there will be a definitive list of who did what and for how long, and then we can adjust our rankings, but for now the only real difference between Jason Giambi and Jim Thome is longevity, and if Giambi is still producing this way five years from now, he to will be in the Top 65 of all time. 122. Addie Joss, SP 123. Sandy Koufax, SP Coming Soon: Carlos Zambrano, 2012 Carlos Zambrano is 26 years old this season, currently has 76 wins and an ERA+ of 131. Despite playing for generally mediocre Cubs teams, C-Z has never had a losing season as a full time starter and strikes out close to a batter per inning. In 2012, at his current pace, Zambrano will be 31 years old, and will have roughly 150 wins. Unfortunately, Zambrano is now indicating that he thinks resigning with the Cubs after the season is likely - his success while playing his home games at Wrigley Field is nearly unprecedented, and one can only wonder a) how long he can keep it up, and b) what he could achieve pitching in San Diego, Atlanta, Detroit, New York, or Florida. 124. Vlad Guerrero, RF At the end of his career, it will be the on-base percentage and the double plays that keeps us from moving Vlad ahead of Sheffield or Manny. Coming Soon: Lance Berkman, July 2010 Disconcertingly, Berkman is having his worst season right now at the age of 31. Berkman has played a number of positions - LF, CF, RF, and now 1B - without ever playing any other them particularly well. Nevertheless, Berkman has been a hitter extraordinaire, and assuming he rebounds from his rough (by his standards) first half of 2007, hs should be solid inside of the Top 100 by 2009. 125. Jim Palmer, SP What is the difference between Jim Palmer and Ferguson Jenkins? I am completely convinced that if you took Ferguson Jenkins and let him spend his career with the Baltimore Orioles of the 1960s and 1970s, playing in Memorial Coliseum with Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger, Davey Johnson/Bobby Grich, and Boog Powell/Lee May behind him on defense, he would have won 20 games every year, would have finished with 300 wins, and would have finished with an ERA+ of 120 or more. On the flip side, take Jim Palmer, and put him in Wrigley Field from 1966 to 1973, and the homeruns and base hits would have killed him. 126. Lou Boudreau, SS If Boudreau had not enjoyed his best season in 1948, his ranking here would be in jeopardy. His only other solid seasons were during the war years, and his career was not that long otherwise. 127. Sammy Sosa, RF 128. Chuck Klein, RF 129. Bobby Bonds, RF Truth be told, of the Sosa, Klein, and Bonds, I would probably take Sammy Sosa last on a day-to-day basis, but Sosa has had the longer, more successful career of the three, so I rank him first. Like Sosa, Chuck Klein has about five years of extravagant success – from 1929 to 1933 – which was larger era-driven, and his seasons outside of that era were largely unimpressive. If he had stayed healthy, Bobby Bonds would have been the first player to 500-500, not his son. Just to throw this out there - as of the release of this list, Sammy Sosa has 602 homeruns and a 128 OPS+. Imagine, this guy has over 600 homeruns, a feat matched only by Ruth, Aaron, Mays, and Barry Bonds, and yet his OPS+ indicates that he is no more valuable than Tim Salmon. 130. Gene Tenace, C 131. Mariano Rivera, RP 132. Dazzy Vance, SP 133. Curt Schilling, SP I had Vance, Brown, and Schilling altogether. Then, I decided Vance was far and away better than Brown or Schillign. Then I decided Schilling was far and away better than Brown. So I have Schilling and Vance together. Even though Vance didn't play nearly as long as Schilling has, the two accomplished essentially the same things, and I think Vance may have been more dominant. Dazzy Vance began his career at the age of 31, and from the age of 31 to 39 was arguably the best starting pitcher in the National League during the 1920s. Vance led his league in strikeouts seven times, strikeouts per nine innings eight times, and strikeout-to-walk ratio eight times. He was a three time league leader in ERA, ERA+, and WHIP, and led the league in hits allowed per nine innings and shutouts four times. 134. Carlos Delgado, 1B 135. Will Clark, 1B Scott and Keith acted like I was crazy for putting Carlos Delgado on the list last year, but I don't really see much of a difference between Delgado and Clark. I can see no principled distinction between the value of Carlos Delgado and the value of Will Clark. Each of them had two seasons which could be considered truly great – seasons in which each of them could arguably be considered one of the top three players in his league - while being excellent hitters in their other seasons. For Clark, those seasons were 1988 and 1989, and for Delgado those seasons were 2000 and 2003. Neither player won his league’s MVP in either of their peak seasons – Clark finished fifth behind Kirk Gibson in 1988 and second behind teammate Kevin Mitchell in 1989 (Mitchell was the best player in baseball that season), while Delgado lost to Jason Giambi in 2000 and Alex Rodriguez in 2003. Will the Thrill was a better pure hitter who played most of his career in an era of pure hitters – 1986-1993 – while Delgado has been a better power hitter who has played all of his career in an era of power hitters – 1994-2007. In the end, they shake out pretty similarly, and I can see no reason to rank one significantly higher or lower than the other. Coming Soon: David Ortiz, July 2011 The greatest waiver wire pickup in (recent) history continues to improve. He only plays DH, which hurts him, but he is one of the best hitters around today. Could surplant Edgar Martinez as the greatest DH of all time, but not anytime soon. 136. Jeff Kent, 2B Kent probably gets the least props of any second baseman around, despite outstanding offensive numbers. There are several reasons for this: a) the perception that he has Barry Bonds to thank for his best years in San Francisco; b) his constant shifting from team to team, making it hard to formulate any single iconic image of his (unlike Ryne Sandberg); c) playing in an era in which homerun hitting is far more common, and thus hard to get credit for; d) the slow start of his career; and e) a perception of unlikabiliy, which is ironic given that the perception stems from a fight with Barry Bonds in which Dusty Baker intervened, and both Bonds and Baker are now generally not liked very much either. Coming Soon: Chase Utley, 2014 His offense is incredible, his defense is top notch according to the plus/minus and zone rating systems, and he looks primed to be in Philadelphia for the long haul. One caveat: his OPS is roughly 100 points higher at home than on the road, which gives me pause. But since his power seems much more doubles-oriented than homerun oriented, I would think he would probably do as well in Dodgers Stadium as he does at Citizens Bank Park. 137. John Smoltz, SP 138. Larry Doyle, 2B A fantastic offensive second baseman in an era with comparatively few offensive second basemen. 139. Ivan Rodriguez, C In 2004, when Ivan Rodriguez left the World Champion Marlins to go to Detroit, a friend suggested that if Detroit, fresh off of their 43-119 season, went to the World Series, I-Rod would have to be considered the greatest catcher ever. I conceded the point. He didn't do it overnight, but the Tigers ended up in the World Series three years later. Florida's team ERA dropped from 4.36 to 4.04 the year they acquired I-Rod from the Texas Rangers, while Texas's team ERA ballooned from 5.15 to 5.67. Detroit's team ERA dropped in each of Rodriguez's first three seasons there, and their pitching spurred them to the World Series with their mediocre hitting. Personally, I think I-Rod did some big time steroids when he was with the Rangers. I think he strikes out too much and doesn't walk nearly enough. I think his homeruns are often outweighed by his double plays, and I think he is an overrated offensive player overall. As a person, I think he is arrogant, selfish, and immature. But the Rangers enjoyed the most successful period in their franchise with him as catcher, the Marlins won the World Series with him as catcher, and Detroit has gone from the worst team in baseball to one of the best him as catcher. You have to give props where props are do, and Ivan Rodriguez would appear to be one of the best in the business. 140. Earl Averill, CF A what-ifer, perhaps ranked a bit high. Didn't break into the league until 1929, at the age of 27, and made an immediate impact. He enjoyed a rocking 1929 to 1932, but his best seasons were actually 1934 and 1936. Put some impressive career total given his late debut, and his rate stats are very good for a centerfielder. 141. Tom Glavine, SP Glavine is the Jim Palmer of this era - a solid pitcher who had the benefit of being healthy enough to not miss in starts and who played in a pitcher's park for a very good team with a very good defense behind him. On the Cubs, Tom Glavine would have been Steve Trachsel. 142. Fred Clarke, LF 143. Bob Johnson, LF Both Clarke and Johnson are very underrated players – possibly because of their pedestrian names? – who were nevertheless very good. 144. Joe Gordon, 2B 145. Bobby Doerr, 2B 146. Tony Lazzeri, 2B These three guys are so similar I have a hard time remembering which is which. 147. Brooks Robinson, 3B 148. Keith Hernandez, 1B Very similar players – I realized it was silly to have a league average offensive third baseman who was an amazing defender on my list without having a better than league average first baseman of similar defensive skill on the list. Robinson gets the bump because there are a lot more first basemen ahead of Hernandez on offense than there are third basemen ahead of Robinson. 149. Vern Stephens, 3B One of the few big-offense shortstops - is Vaughan the only other one? - between Honus Wagner and Ernie Banks. First full season at 21, played through World War II, and was done as a regular at the age of 31. 150. Brian Giles, CF 151. Joe Torre, C 152. Mike Mussina, SP 153. Reggie Smith, RF 154. Jack Clark, RF 155. Goose Goslin, LF I’ve got these three grouped in my head. Each of them is better than most people realize. Each of them bores me to tears. Smith's value is distorted in part by his home-road splits in Boston and St. Louis, Clark's value is distorted by his bases on balls, and Goslin's value is distorted by playing in the late 1920s and early 1930s. 156. George Sisler, 1B 157. Gavvy Cravath, RF 158. Charlie Keller, LF This is the Key Point to considering Gavvy Cravath, George Sisler, and Charlie Keller - all three of these players had extenuating circumstances affect their careers, and without those circumstances, Sisler was by far the better player. Cravath and Keller had very similar offensive careers – their finished within 41 plate appearances of each other – but Keller’s career was over by the age of 29 while Cravath’s didn’t get going until the age of 31. Keller was fantastic at hitting homeruns and getting on-base, while Cravath led the league in homeruns six out of seven years. Sisler, for his part, was a different player from Keller and Cravath. Sisler was never a league leading power hitter but had plenty by the standards of his time. He had better power for doubles, triples and homeruns compared to his league than Keller did compared to his. He was a better overall hitter than Cravath and Keller. He was a base stealer, yet he regularly trumped the league average in average, on-base, and slugging by wider margins than Keller or Cravath. Sisler, too, had extenuating circumstances: he suffered an eye infection that cost him a whole season and doubled his vision for the remainder of his career. The difference between Sisler and Keller and Cravath is that while Cravath wasn't able to play while he was being held in the minors, and while Keller couldn't play after injuries slowed him down, Sisler kept chugging along. When Sisler suffered his eye injury, he had 4574 plate appearances, which was 30 fewer than Keller finished with and 71 fewer than Cravath finished with. If Sisler had stopped playing at that point, people would talk about Sisler, Cravth, and Keller in the same breath. But because Sisler played for 4439 more plate appearances, nearly doubling the totals of Charlie Keller and Gavvy Cravath, and subsequently skewing his career totals, the bottom line makes Cravath and Keller appear to be twice the player Sisler was, when in reality it is much closer to 1:1:1. I simply don’t see how you can take three players who are, at the very least, similar through the same number of plate appearances, and then rate two of them higher than the third because they stopped playing but the third did not. All things being equal, and all players being healthy and in their prime, George Sisler was at least as good as Charlie Keller and Gavvy Cravath, if not better. 159. Bert Blyleven, SP 160. Billy Herman, 2B 161. Bob Elliott, 3B 162. Kevin Brown, SP 163. Jim Edmonds, CF The conventional wisdom in baseball says that hitting in front of a great player can make you great. Edmonds serves as circumstantial evidence that hitting behind great hitters and make you pretty good, too. Edmonds six year run with the Cardinals included five years spent largely in the fifth spot in the order behind and Scott Rolen. Edmonds also has a reputation as a great defensive centerfielder supported largely by Plays of the Week. I tend to think of him as the Duke Snider of our era - a great offensive centerfielder on a team with lots of offensive weapons. 164. Larry Walker, RF Walker was a very good player in Montreal, but would not be on this list if not for his time with Colorado. In 1997, Walker had one of the all time great seasons, and his OPS was actually higher on the road, where he hit 9 more homeruns than at home. Nevertheless, Walker rarely played a full season, and his OPS at home is 200 points higher than on the road for his career. If he would have stayed healthy, he would have finished with nearly 500 homeruns, over 300 stolen bases, and would be regarded as one of the great defensive rightfielders of all time. But if he had not have played in Coors Field, we'd be comparing him to Leon Durham. 165. Ernie Lombardi, C 166. Gaylord Perry, SP 167. Hack Wilson, RF 168. Darryl Strawberry, RF 169. Jose Canseco, RF Being screw-ups doesn’t change the fact that Wilson, Strawberry, and Canseco were each amongst the most feared hitters in baseball for a significant time. If any of them could have sustained the success they’d had early in their careers, they would have been Top 100 talent. 170. Joe Medwick, LF 171. Ken Singleton, RF Finished in the Top Ten in bases on balls 12 times in 12 full seasons. Finished in the Top Ten runs scored twice (eighth each time), RBI three times, and double plays six times. Appears to have been very good at taking walks, but not particularly good at scoring runs. Say this, though - in his ten years with the Orioles, they never had a losing season. Unrelated to Singleton - in 1975, the year he joined Baltimore, the Orioles had four regulars - Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger, Dave Duncan, and Paul Blair - with OBPs signicantly under .300, plus Lee May (.308) and Tommy Davis (.315). They somehow won 90 games that year. 172. Ozzie Smith, SS If shortstop is the position where offense is the hardest to come by, it is probably the position where defense is easiest to come by. Thus, claims that Ozzie Smith is the greatest defensive shortstop of all time are very difficult to justify. Ozzie was clearly a defensive wizard (pun intended) and offensive liability, but the thing is, he wasn't that big of a liability. He wasn't a great hitter, but he took an above average number of walks, and unlike many speedsters of his time (or of any time, for that matter) he didn't take himself out of the game by striking out a lot - his career high for strikeout was 49, and he struck out 40 or more times in only 3 out of 19 seasons. He hit into very few double plays, and finished his career with over 1250 runs and 580 stolen bases. Among defensive specialist shortstops, he was actually a very good offensive player. 173. Babe Herman, RF Not a great outfielder, enjoyed his best seasons in 1929 and 1930, when hitting infected the National League like the black plague. 174. Ken Williams, LF Ken Williams played his first full season at the age of 30 in 1920, and enjoyed a productive 10 year career. His numbers were probably inflated by his era, but he finished in the top five in homeruns eight times and in the top ten in stolen bases five times. He was a very good player for a very short time. 175. Al Rosen, 3B Man, have we ever been overrating Al Rosen. Our love of third basemen has clouded our perception of the fact that Rosen played exactly seven full major league seasons, and only four of them were noteworthy. I question whether Rosen even really belongs on this list - a question I will hopefull resolve next year. 176. Phil Niekro, SP Let's say I give you two major league pitchers with the following stats: Pitcher A: 5243.2 IP, 4830 H, 2583/1434 K/BB, 434 HR, 3.09 ERA, 118 ERA+ Pitcher B: 5404.1 IP, 5044 H, 3342/1809 K/BB, 482 HR, 3.35 ERA, 115 ERA+ Which pitcher would you rather have, A or B? Probably A, but its close, right? More stats: Pitcher A: 382 CG, 63 ShO, 29 Saves Pitcher B: 245 CG, 45 ShO, 29 Saves More evidence in favor of A, especially with the sizable CG lead. Here's more: Pitcher A: first full season at 26, last season at 44 Pitcher B: first full season at 28, last season at 48 During Pitcher A's career, his team finished with a losing record exactly twice in 19 full seasons. During Pitcher B's career, his team finished with a losing record 11 times in 21 full seasons. As a result: Pitcher A: 363-245 Pitcher B: 318-274 Warren Spahn is the pitcher who most benefits from people looking only at his wins and losses in the history of baseball. Obviously, he had to be doing something right to win 363 games, and not everyone on those Braves teams was winning that many games, but the gap between Spahn and Niekro is not that great, and yet somehow idiots like me have Spahn ranked over 100 spots ahead of Niekro. Someday I will need to straighten that out. Not sure how to yet, though. Fun Fact - Phil Niekro made his debut in 1964, on the Braves with Warren Spahn in what would be Spahn's last season with the Braves and second to last season of his career. 24 years later, Phil Niekro ended his career with the Braves in 1987, the same year that a young player by the name of Tom Glavine was making his major league debut. 177. Gary Carter, C 178. Lefty Gomez, SP 179. Bret Saberhagen, SP I was going to leave Saberhagen off of my list, because he wasn't consistently healthy enough to be as dominant as his numbers tend to indicate that he was. Then, I realized that if Lefty Gomez is going to be on my list, Saberhagen definitely has to be. Like Gomez, Saberhagen had two dominant seasons. But unlike Gomez, who was merely pretty good for the rest of his short career, Saberhagen was really quite good whenever he was healthy enough to pitch. Unfortunately, in 17 seasons from 1984 to 2001, he was healthy for an entire season only five times. And of those five times, one came in the strike season of 1994, and the other came in in his rookie year, when he was a starter for only half of the season. His strikeout to walk ratio was among the best of all time. His ERA was very low for his era. If Saberhagen had been able to pitch at the level he pitched at and stay healthy, he would be a no-doubter for the Top 100, and maybe even the Top 50. 180. Wally Berger, CF 181. Ron Cey, 3B 182. Norm Cash, 1B Cash's numbers look much less impressive if you remove his 1961 season. 183. Joe Sewell, SS 184. Hal Newhouser, SP 185. Robin Roberts, SP In my comment above about Ferguson Jenkins and Jim Palmer, I pondered what would have happened if Jenkins had been able to play on the team Palmer played for. When Robin Roberts left the terrible Phillies and joined the Baltimore Orioles, it rejuvenated his career and he enjoined three seasons that were better than five of his last six in Philadelphia. Roberts was the anti-Nolan Ryan. Whereas Ryan threw the ball as hard as he could, determined to keep hitters from getting hits even if it meant he would walk every batter he faced, Roberts was a control freak who wasn't going to walk a batter to save his life, even if it meant that ever batter that came to the plate got a hit. He is 17th all time on the career hits list, and he is numero uno on the career homeruns given up list. There are pitchers about whom one can say, "his team succeeded because they had him," and there are pitchers about whom one can say, "he succeeded because of the team he was on." I firmly think the difference between Jim Palmer, Tom Glavine, and Robin Roberts is Palmer and Glavine played on very good teams, and Roberts played on bad ones. If Roberts had played for the Yankees, he probably would have finished with 350 wins. It would not have made him a better pitcher, though. 186. Wally Schang, C 187. Bobby Abreu, RF It seems like it would be anachronistic to have Will Clark, Jack Clark, Brian Giles, Bob Johnson, Bobby Bonds, and Ken Williams on my list without Bobby Abreu. 188. Don Drysdale, SP 189. Jimmy Collins, 3B 190. Urban Shocker, SP 191. Orlando Cepeda, 1B 192. Darrell Evans, 3B 193. Dale Murphy, CF This spot was going to go to Elmer Flick, and Dale Murphy was going to be off of my list, but I decided to reconsider the issue. Flick played 13 seasons, only seven of which were meaningful post-1901 seasons. Murphy played 18 seasons, only 13 of which were complete, post-1901 seasons, and only seven of which were what Top 200 caliber seasons. In their primes, Murphy was probably a little better compared to the league on offense than Flick, and was a lot better defensively. Murphy played a very good centerfield, while the range factor system sees Flick as a significantly below average rightfielder. I think their numbers would be far more similar if Murphy had not taken several seasons to get up to speed, and had not stuck around several more after his skills declined. But I have recently found myself favoring players who played over those who did in such situations, so I take Murphy. 194. Trevor Hoffman, RP May 21, 2008 - Recently Greg commented that he thought Billy Wagner deserved to be ranked ahead of Hoffman, and I guffawed. But after looking at the stats between the two of them, I think I am going to have to reconsider. 195. Ray Schalk, C 196. Stan Coveleski, SP 197. Andre Dawson, RF 198. Todd Helton, 1B I’ve got Larry Walker ranked 164th, which is based almost purely on what he did while he was with Colorado. Todd Helton is a much better hitter than Walker, and has been much healthier. His road OPS is .900, which I’ll bet is a lot better than a lot of guys on this list who don’t play in Colorado. Helton would not be who he is today if not for playing for Colorado, but it doesn’t mean his stats can be completely ignored. 199. Eddie Cicotte, SP 200. David Cone, SP See Asher's 2007 Top 200 Notable Omissions. Questions? Concerns? Comments? Asher lives in Philadelphia, PA, and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com. |