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Atlanta Braves Team Review! Advertise your business, or pay tribute to your favorite team! |
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Atlanta Braves Team Review! Advertise your business, or pay tribute to your favorite team! |
2006 Record: 79-83
849 RS | 805 RA
The Philadelphia Phillies led the National League with 865 runs scored. The runner up was not the Mets, the team that everyone talked about having an unbelievable offense. It was not the Dodgers, who paced the league in runs scored for most of the year. Neither the Diamondbacks, nor the Reds, nor the Rockies, the three NL teams with the most favorable ballparks for hitters, could match the runs scored total of the Atlanta Braves.
This is the same Braves franchise that had been synonymous with spectacular starting pitching for the past 16 years. The fact that the first year where their offense proved much more impressive than their defense corresponded with the end of their 15-year NL East championship streak serves as fodder for those baseball traditionalists who believe that pitching trumps all. Is that all that happened: the Braves finally stopped pitching, so they finally started losing?
Digging a little deeper, we find that these Braves had an expected winning percentage of .524, but went 19-33 in one run games. That one-run record was the worst in baseball, and only the Indians fell further short of their expected won-loss record. Does the pitching account for this discrepancy?
Specifically, the bullpen does. Chris Reitsma was named the closer out of spring training, and he allowed 27 runs in 28 innings. The Braves had five different pitchers record saves before acquiring Bob Wickman in July. They went 34-32 since Wickman appeared in his first game in an Atlanta uniform, including 26-2 in games that Wickman appeared in.
Big deal, you say. Teams always have a great record in games in which their closers appear because of the way in which they are used. True, but not 26-2 great. Ryan Dempster, closer for the team with the second worst record in one run games in 2006, led the Cubs to just a 52-22 record in games that he appeared in, including eight straight losses towards the end of the season. I'm not saying that the Braves need Bob Wickman specifically to succeed in 2007, but they do need a couple of quality arms out of the pen if they want to compete in close games.
They also need either a return to form for Marcus Giles, or a new leadoff hitter altogether. We can talk about the pitching, but these Braves also totaled a lot fewer stolen bases than in any of their division-winning seasons. The inability to manufacture runs in close games this season has cost them. For whatever reason, Giles can't hit out of the leadoff spot. He's got a career .717 OPS there as opposed to his .859 mark in the #2 hole.
But if they can't find a speedster to lead off for them, someone with a high OBP would do. Having someone get on base consistently in front of the resurgent Edgar Renteria, the suddenly-powerful Adam LaRoche, the RBI fiend Andrew Jones, the due-to-be-healthy-for-a-full-season-one-of-these-years Chipper Jones, and possibly the best young catcher in baseball, Brian McCann, would lead to the team scoring over 900 runs next season. Winning one-run games would then be something to worry about for the postseason, as they'll simply blow out most teams during the summer. And they're used to not winning in the postseason, aren't they?
But one last thing has to happen for the Braves to once again reach the postseason next year, and that's to change the composition of its defense. Tim Hudson is a groundball pitcher with an unequalled track record of success when given a quality infield defense behind him. His .707 winning percentage going into 2006 was behind only Al Spalding and Spud Chandler all time, and his 3.32 career ERA was pretty nice for this day and age. But his new .665 winning percentage is now good for just 18th best all time, and his career ERA has ballooned to 3.53.
The simplest solution would be to trade Huddy to a team that already has a solid infield defense. Trouble is, while his $6 million salary for next year is very reasonable, his $13 million bill for both '08 and '09 are not. Not to mention the fact that you'd hate to trade a player after the worst season of his career and get less value than you should.
Edgar Renteria is not a good defensive shortstop any more, but he led the team with a .293 bating average last year, and the Red Sox pay most of his salary, so it's hard to get too down on him. The best thing that the Braves can do to help their infield defense would be to shift Chipper Jones back to left field. Jeff Francoeur and Matt Diaz are each young players with some interesting upsides, but unless one of them suddenly learns to not swing at everything from pitchouts to pickoff attempts, limiting their at bats would not be a huge loss. I don't think that Willy Aybar is the answer at third base, though, and without the benefit of Wilson Betemit or Andy Marte, it appears that the team would need to look outside the organization for third base help.
The good news is that there are more quality third baseman around today than perhaps any other period in baseball history. The bad news is that the Braves have about as much payroll flexibility as a 90-year old hunchback. Next year they will pay $13 million to Andruw Jones, a guaranteed $11 million to Chipper Jones, and a laughable $14.5 million to Mike Hampton. For 2007, most of those contracts increase, plus they'll owe Hudson the aforementioned $13 million. They should be able to add a solid third baseman, but they're not going to be able to get a star.
Looking at those contracts, the $13 million per season that the Braves would have had to pay to keep Rafael Furcal suddenly seems a little more reasonable. Particularly since the absence of Furcal is the reason for the depleted infield defense and lack of production from the leadoff spot. Obviously, the Braves were winning pennants long before Furcal even got paid to play baseball, but in this case, the team simply wasn't able to replace what he brought to the table.
I, for one, am hoping that the Braves can replace him for next year. Because if Atlanta does return to the playoffs next season, their spoiled brat fans might actually fill Turner Field, realizing that making the playoffs is something special, even though it seems to happen for them every year.
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