by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
August 22, 2008
A year-and-a-half ago,
I decried the Mark DeRosa signing as a DeBacle.
After exceeding all of my expectations on both sides of the ball, this can be
described as nothing other than a Glabbe Gaffe.
My primary issue with the Mark DeRosa signing was the notion that he would
take playing time away from promising young second-sacker Ryan Theriot.
That issue was addressed nearly immediately, as Theriot became the Cubs'
starting shortstop shortly into the 2007 season, relegating Ronny Cedeno first
to a minor league assignment, then to a bench role with the big league club.
So that was great, but DeRosa still needed to justify his three-year, $13
million deal. He has done that and then some.
Realistically, DeRosa had proved his woth when hew followed up his allegedly
fluke 2006 season (108 OPS+) with a nearly-as-fantastic 2007 season (102 OPS+).
He even improved his walk rate, his strikeout rate, and his on-base percentage.
But the reason I write this article today is because DeRosa had the best
defensive game I have ever seen from a second baseman on Thursday, then set a
career high in RBI on Friday. He had already long since bested his career
highs in home runs, runs scored, stolen baes, and walks.
How does a 33-year old continue to improve thus? I have two theories,
both of which I have posited previously. Theory #1 concerns a career
role-player improving by getting more consistent playing time. In my
apparently misguided article on DeRosa written in November of 2006, I cited
Raul Ibanez, John Vander Wal,
and Scott Hatteberg as examples of part-time players who stepped up their play
once given full-time roles. As for theory #2, in one of the first article
I ever wrote for BaseballEvolution.com, I told the tale of the mystical
Fountain of Coors: how career
scrubs could join the pre-humidor Colorado Rockies and leave the team a
much-improved player.
Theory #1 makes a certain sense, as baseball is a game
of repetition; playing sporadically has rarely enhanced a player's career.
You do worry that a role player-turned starter might wear down as the season
goes on, and that certainly happened with DeRosa (2007: .815 Pre/.766 Post).
That also appeared to be happening this year, as DeRo had batted just .195 in
July before embarking on a torrid August pace. Apparently, the reprtition
factor outweighs the tiring factor, at least in this instance.
As for theory
#2, anyone who has played the game of baseball will tell you that hitting is a
matter of confidence. If you believe that you can hit the ball, you
probably will. If you don't, you may as well not even step to the plate.
By having a breakout 2006 season - whether park-aided or not - DeRosa
established himself as someone who could pose a threat to the man on the mound.
He appears to have taken this added confidence and run with it.
Getting back
to DeRosa's defense, when I first watched him closely in spring training 2007,
he impressed me at third base, but seemed to lack polish at second. This
disappointed me, sice I knew (or rather hoped) that DeRosa would never see
significant time at the hot corner due to the presence of Aramis Ramirez.
DeRosa wound up posting a revised zone rating of .869, which would have led all
National League second baseman had he not spent some time as a super-sub and
failed to qualify at second base. This year, he has dropped to a mark of
.826, which would be good for the fourth-best mark in the NL. In both
seasons, the number of plays that he has made outside of his assigned zone have
been few and far between.
Even if we only regard his second base defense as
adequate, DeRosa is currently 5th among qualifying MLB second basemen in OPS,
and his ability to play multiple positions well giving Cubs' starters a break
adds to his value. He has easily been worth his $4.75 million contract
this year, and doesn't figure to disappoint in'09 despite that salary increasing
to $5.5 million. He has been nearly as good as the far more expensive
Brian Roberts, whom the Cubs would have spent many important bargaining chips
(many of the same ones used to obtain Rich Harden last month) to acquire.
What
can we learn from my gaffe? DeRosa is just one example, but it may be
wrong to count out a role player on the wrong side of 30 having a breakout year
in a hitter's park. Or in other words, the team that seemingly overpays for free
agent-to-be Ramon Vazquez may be getting a better player than popularly
realized.
Up next: An apology to Ryan Dempster and an examination of why
long-time relievers have excelled in the starter's role this year.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Keith resides in Chicago, Illinois and can be reached at keith@baseballevolution.com or found at the Baseball Evolution Forum