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Last year, I used Linear Saves to finally convince myself that Trevor Hoffman was a better closer than Billy Wagner.  By the early June, I was having second thoughts.  Billy Wagner had gone a respectable 13-for-15 in his save chances and boasted a ridiculous 0.36 ERA on the strength of adding a changeup to his arsenal.  Meanwhile, Hoffman was finally showing his age, sporting an 0-4 record, 5.68 ERA, and 11-for-14 save ratio.  

Hoffman would only blow one more save on the year: one run allowed to the middle of the Rockies' batting order.  The Padres would score a run to win that game for Hoffman in the bottom of the ninth.  Wagner, meanwhile, blew three straight saves in early June, allowing two runs in each contest.  He righted his ship before suffering a career-threatening elbow injury in early August. 

The point of this tale is that unlike a traditional counting stat, career Linear Weights stats can fluctuate wildly, especially so with Linear Saves due to the volatile nature of closers.  So our table of career Linear Saves has changed quite a bit in just one year and could indeed look different when we check in again next winter.

2007 Career Linear Saves Leaders (Min 10 LSV10)

2008 Career Linear Saves Leaders (Min 10 LSV10)

Billy Wagner dropped from sixth to eighth on the all-time list while Eric Gagne fell from eighth to ninth. As a result, Dan Quisenberry shot up from ninth to seventh.  As Rickey Henderson might say, it's as though someone dug up Dan Quisenberry and he started saving games again.  This serves as yet another example of how rare it is for a closer to remain as consistent throughout a long career as Trevor Hoffman has done. Wagner, for instance, would need to save 150 consecutive games before he would match Hoffman's career save percentage.

But there is at least one challenger for Hoffman's crown.  With his 5.4 Linear Save performance in 2008, Mariano Rivera has leapfrogged Lee Smith and stands as runner up in career Linear Saves, trailing Hoffman by 6.3.  Rivera is two years younger than Hoffman, and has averaged 2.3 LSV per season over his dozen years as a closer.  Again, a lot can happen in two years, but suddenly the two future hall of Famers appear to be near-equals in this measure of closing efficiency.  Rivera's commanding edge in ERA, ERA+, winning percentage, playoff performance, and multi-inning appearances obviously make him a far better pitcher already, but we may be fast approaching the day on which Trevor Hoffman won't even have Linear Saves to hang his hat.

Feel free to download the updated Linear Saves Excel Spreadsheet.  We'd appreciate it if you cite and link back to BaseballEvolution.com whenever using Linear Weights and send us suggestions on how to better utilize and improve them.