Week Eightteen
by Asher B. Chancey, BaseballEvolution.com
July 30, 2007

Some idiot Yankees fan emailed me this weekend with the following message:

“Call me biased if you want, but if the Yankees aren't above the line of death on Tuesday, I can't take your rankings seriously.”

C’mon, Idiot Yankee Fan, would you ever take a ranking of teams seriously that did not have the Yankees on top? Admit it, your Bronx arrogance has you thinking, even now, that the Yanks should be ranked ahead of the Red Sox, because of how the two teams have played the last month of the season. This is what I like to call “Classic Yankees Fan Arrogance – issuing an ultimatum to me, as if the risk of now being taken seriously by some loser Yankee fan is enough to get me to change the way I see the league. As if I am going to say, “Oooh, ooh, I better change my opinion of the Yankees or else this guy isn’t going to be my friend.”

In truth, if I did move the Yankees above the Line of Death, then I wouldn’t be able to take them seriously myself. Remember the only way a team can escape the Line of Death:

“The only way a team which falls below the Line of Death can get back above the line is by completing a transaction, or series of transaction, which changes the dynamic of their team.”

True, the Yankees are now 12 games over .500, which is certainly impressive. They have been on fire the last three weeks, also impressive. But what have the Yankees done to change the dynamic of their team? They signed Roger Clemens, but Clemens hasn’t exactly been a difference maker. They got Phil Hughes back from injury, but I haven’t exactly been over-whelmed by his performances. Really, the Yankees are the same team they were when I first moved them below the L.o.D., and I still don’t think they have the pitching to get to the playoffs, and no amount of beating up on the Royals, White Sox, Orioles, and Devil Rays (the only teams they have faced in since July 20th) will change that.

From now through the end of August, the Yankees play, in order, Blue Jays, Indians, Orioles, Tigers, Angels, Tigers and Red Sox. If, at the end of this stretch, the Yankees are still 12 games over .500, I will be impressed. Maybe even impressed enough to move them above the Line of Death.

That said, it does appear as though the Yanks may be able to make the playoffs this season by merely playing .500 ball the rest of the way because of how the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians have been playing of late. I went on the record a while ago on two topics: a) Fausto Carmona is not the real deal, and b) the Indians are not nearly as good as they have played to this point. In fact, I predicted a collapse in the coming weeks, and I would have been correct if not for one fact: for some reason, the Detroit Tigers have forgotten how to play baseball.

Over the last four series – a span of 14 games, the Tigers have gone 3-11 to the White Sox, Angels, and Athletics. Nothing has gone right in this span – the starting pitching has gotten lit up, the bullpen has been shaky, and the hitting has faded. As a result, the Tigers have gone from 59-38 (21 games over .500) to 61-49 (12 games over .500) and have managed to keep the Indians in the divisional race despite the fact that the Tribe has gone merely 4-9 over the same stretch. I firmly believe the Tigers to be the better team here, but they have to win games to win the division. Detroit fans can only hope that we aren’t seeing a repeat of last season’s collapse.

This week sees another team fall below the Line of Death. I held on as long as I could for the St. Louis Cardinals, and last week’s respectable showing against the Cubs and Brewers looked to breathe life into the playoff hopes of this team. But that pitching is just terrible, and a 1-5 week against the Pirates and Nationals (even though it was on the road) proves that the Cardinals simply don’t belong.

I was tempted to bring the Philadelphia Phillies back to life this week after the acquisition of Kyle “Not Nearly As Bad As We Expected” Lohse and Tad Iguchi, but Lohse was promptly maimed by a line drive and his status is uncertain, and Iguchi replaced the injured Chase Utley, which is a downgrade rather than an upgrade. The Phils went 3-4 vs. the Cubs and Brewers this week, needing extra innings to down a struggling Brew-Crew on Sunday. The Phils have the Mets to contend with the NL East, and Cubs, Braves, Padres, and Dodgers to contend with for the NL Wild Card, and frankly I do not think their playoff chances are any better right now than I did when I put them below the Line of Death. If the Phils can play big at home against the Marlins and Braves this week, and Kyle Lohse can return from injury, then that may change.

Speaking of the Braves, I am not sure if anyone noticed other than me, but the acquisition of Mark Teixeira seems to have rejuvenated the whole Braves offense. In the last seven days, the Braves are hitting .339 as a team, with a .565 slugging percentage. True, this performance came against the Astros and Rockies – not exactly elite pitching – but these performance also came in pitcher friendly Turner Field, and the Braves haven’t needed elite pitching to be shut down in the last few months. Braves fans have reason to like what they see, and the rejuvenated Braves will get a chance to prove they are for real on the road vs. the Mets and the Phillies this week.

Out west, the D’Backs managed to sweep the Dodgers in L.A. this weekend, shutting them out twice in three games in the process. You know what is a bad sign for an offense – when you only walk once in eight innings against Doug Davis.

As my final note before the rankings this week, I would just like to give it up for the Washington Nationals, who won all six of their games this week against the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Nationals pitching staff gave up three or fewer runs in each game, and the offense failed to score six or more runs only once. This may be the first time in memory that a last place team could be considered the surprise team of the year in a positive way, and with the Florida Marlins now only half a game ahead of the Nats, they may not even be in last place for long.

Without further ado, here are the Week Seventeen Power Rankings. Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment.

Rank	Team	Comments	Prev
1		Boston Red Sox (68-43) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. Orioles, Mariners The runaway favorite, needs to stay sharp for October.	1
2		Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (64-46) Record for the Week - 3-4 vs. Mariners, A's Still one of best, but uninspiring of late.	3
3		New York Mets (63-48) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. Brewers, Cubs Infield is like one of those old vs. young reality shows.	4
4		Detroit Tigers (61-49) Record for the Week - 1-5 vs. A's, White Sox May have entered the "die by the pitching" phase of 2007.	2
5		Arizona Diamondbacks (63-50) Record for the Week - 5-1 vs. Padres, Dodgers Proof in the pudding; handled biggest rivals last week	9
6		Atlanta Braves (59-53) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. Astros, Rockies Mark "Fred McGriff" Teixeira seems to have sparked Braves offense.	12
7		San Diego Padres (56-48) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. D'Backs, Giants Peavy back on track; need Young healthy for final push.	6
8		Milwaukee Brewers (57-49) Record for the Week - 3-3 vs. Mets, Phillies Big road trip vs. Rockies, Astros this week.	8
9		Chicago Cubs (58-52) Record for the Week - 3-4 vs. Phillies, Mets Soriano injury means season could hinge on Murton/Pie.	10
10		Cleveland Indians (62-49) Record for the Week - 2-4 vs. Rangers, Twins Don't believe the hype.	5
11		Seattle Mariners (60-49) Record for the Week - 3-3 vs. Angels, Red Sox Lesson to be learned from Guillen vs. Sexson.	11
12		Los Angeles Dodgers (58-53) Record for the Week - 1-5 vs. Giants, D'Backs Currently featuring two worst percentage players in the game.	7
13		Minnesota Twins (57-53) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. Royals, Indians May make a run in suddenly dismal AL Central.	13
---------------- Line of Death! --------------
14		New York Yankees (62-50) Record for the Week - 5-1 vs. White Sox, Royals Give me good pitching vs. good teams and we'll talk.	17
15		Philadelphia Phillies (55-49) Record for the Week - 3-4 vs. Cubs, Brewers Lohse almost gave Phils the boost they needed.	15
16		Colorado Rockies (56-53) Record for the Week - 3-3 vs. Marlins, Braves Rockies have all momentum, no pressure right now.	16
17		Toronto Blue Jays (56-54) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. D'Rays, Rangers Nice job against lousy teams this week.	18
18		St. Louis Cardinals (50-58) Record for the Week - 1-5 vs. Pirates, Nationals This team won the World Series last year, for pete's sake.	14
19		Oakland Athletics (53-59) Record for the Week - 4-3 vs. Tigers, Angels Too little too late.	21
20		Baltimore Orioles (52-58) Record for the Week - 3-3 vs. Red Sox, Devil Rays Erik may have to change his last name to "Be-dass".	20
21		Florida Marlins (52-60) Record for the Week - 3-3 vs. Rockies, Astros Middle infield offense does not trump middle infield defense.	19
22		Washington Nationals (51-60) Record for the Week - 6-0 vs. Reds, Cardinals Look how wel this team plays when Zimmerman is hitting.	22
23		Chicago White Sox (52-59) Record for the Week - 4-2 vs. Yankees, Tigers White Sox playing spoiler for Tigers.	25
24		Kansas City Royals (49-62) Record for the Week - 1-5 vs. Twins, Yankees Now, that's the Kansas City I know.	24
25		Houston Astros (48-63) Record for the Week - 2-4 vs. Braves, Marlines Have I made a Carlos Lee-Jim Rice joke lately?	23
26		Cincinnati Reds (47-64) Record for the Week - 2-3 vs. Nationals, Pirates Can't believe this team didn't make any deadline moves.	26
27		San Francisco Giants (47-62) Record for the Week - 2-4 vs. Dodgers, Padres Interestingly, Feliz has fewer Ks than Bonds in 2007.	28
28		Texas Rangers (48-63) Record for the Week - 2-4 vs. Indians, Blue Jays So, this team committed to Ron Washington after all.	27
29		Pittsburgh Pirates (44-64) Record for the Week - 2-3 vs. Cardinals, Reds Good thing they picked up Matt Morris for their run at 5th place.	29
30		Tampa Bay Devil Rays (42-68) Record for the Week - 3-3 vs. Blue Jays, Orioles Got rid of right players - Cantu, Twiggi.	30

Power Rankings for Previous Weeks: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26

Questions? Concerns? Comments? Asher lives in Philadelphia, PA, and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.