Week Twenty-Two
by Asher B. Chancey, BaseballEvolution.com
September 3, 2007

If I say the name "Bucky Dent," what will you automatically think of? October, 1978; Fenway Park; Yankees coming all the way back to tie the Red Sox on the final day of the season before winning the AL East in a one game playoff game capped by Dent's infamous homerun.

Pop Quiz: From how many games back did the Yankees come to tie the Red Sox on the final day of the season?

Answer: The Yankees were 14.0 games out of first place on July 19th; by September 1st, they were 6.5 games back in the division.

Why do I bring this up? In the modern era the 1978 Yankees are the most memorable comeback team; in the previous era, that team was the 1951 New York Giants, who won the National League on the "Shot Heard 'Round the World." While the Yankees were 6.5 games out on September 1st, the Giants were 6.0 games out on September 1st.

The two arguably most famous division winning comebacks in baseball history featured teams who were 6.5 games or fewer back with one month to go in the season.

Since the Yankees comeback in 1978, only two other teams have come back from deficits of 6.0 games or more on September 1st – the 1995 Seattle Mariners, who also went to a one game playoff after being down 6.5 games, and the 2006 Minnesota Twins, who won the AL Central division by one game over the Detroit Tigers on the season's final day after being 6.0 games out.

In fact, since 1978, only 20 teams have won their division after trailing by any number of games on September 1st. See the following:

2006 Minnesota Twins – 6.0 games out, won division; 12.0 games out on July 25th
2006 San Diego Padres – 4.0 games out, tied for division; 4.5 games out on May 27th
2005 New York Yankees – 3.5 games out, tied for division
2004 Anaheim Angels – 3.0 games out, won division
2003 Chicago Cubs – 1.5 games out, won division
2003 Minnesota Twins – 2.0 games out, won division
2001 St. Louis Cardinals – 6.0 games out, tied for division; 9.0 games out on July 13th
2000 Atlanta Braves – 0.5 games out, won division
1998 Texas Rangers – 2.5 games out, won division
1997 San Francisco Giants – 2.0 games out, won division
1996 St. Louis Cardinals – 1.5 games out, won division
1995 Seattle Mariners – 6.5 games out, won division; 13.0 games out on August 2nd
1993 Atlanta Braves – 4.5 games out, won division; 10.0 games out on July 22nd
1990 Pittsburgh Pirates – 0.5 games out, won division
1988 Boston Red Sox – 1.0 games out, won division
1985 Kansas City Royals – 2.5 games out, won division
1982 California Angels – 1.5 games out, won division
1981 Cincinnati Reds – 3.0 games out, won division
1981 Milwaukee Brewers – 2.5 games out, won division
1979 Cincinnati Reds – 0.5 games out, won division

So what is the meaning of all of this?

Well, for one thing, all of this pretty much means that the Seattle Mariners, down by 6.5 games behind the Los Angeles Angels, will not be winning the AL West this season. Sure, there is a chance that they could tie the 1978 Yankees and 1995 Mariners mark of 6.5 games back, but they won’t. Looking at the teams above, it is clear that an absolute requirement for a big comeback is quality pitching, and the M’s just don’t have it. Leave them in the wild card race – for now – but say goodbye to a division title.

Another team that can say goodbye is the Atlanta Braves, also 6.5 games in their division on September 1st. In fact, with the crowded wild card situation in the National League this season, Atlanta can no longer realistically be considered a playoff contender in 2007. Likewise for the optimistic Colorado Rockies who – though six games back in the NL West – remain behind three teams and aren’t picking up ground. The Rockies can take heart, however, because of five NL West teams, the Rockies would appear to be the most complete team heading into 2008.

Lastly, we find the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team 5.0 games back of its division leader on September 1st. As tempting as it might be to write the Dodgers off – and let’s face it, this is a dysfunctional team with too many players either approaching or departing their primes and not enough currently enjoying their primes – the NL West may create just the right combination to send Los Angeles to the playoffs. The Dodgers have pitching – if nothing else – and are behind two teams that are not terribly impressive. Time is running out, but it is certainly not too late.

Without further ado, here are the Week Twenty Two Power Rankings. Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment.

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Questions? Concerns? Comments? Asher lives in Philadelphia, PA, and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.