Predicted Finish 81-81 3rd place NL East

Florida Marlins - 2007 Team Preview
by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
March 31, 2007

2006 Record - 78-84, 4th place NL East
2006 Runs Scored - 758
2006 Runs Allowed - 772
Pythagorean Projection - 80-82


The Florida Marlins return a similar cast to the one that won 78 games a year ago.  Most of these players are young, and can expect improvement with another year under their belts.  So what is preventing me from predicting the Marlins to run away with a severely weakened NL East division?  Well, last year's model was able to avoid serious injuries to most of their key players.  This year's squadron already begins the season without one of their most promising hitters, their only left-handed reliever, and their best pitcher from last season.  Injuries are annoying for high-payroll teams, who can afford to pay their backups millions of dollars and buy players at the trading deadline.  But they are absolutely devastating for a team like the Marlins, which lacks depth to the point where Yahoo! does not even list a center fielder on its team depth chart.

Catcher
2006 Starters - Miguel Olivo, Matt Treanor
Projected 2007 Starter - Olivo, Treanor

103 strikeouts, five unintentional bases-on-balls.  Olivo wields one of the strongest throwing arms in the game, but he is a liability on offense that could get even worse. Surprisingly, Treanor performed even better than Olivo did in every defensive category (F%, CS%, CERA, SBA/G, and WP+PB/G), while being no more of an offensive burden.

First Base
2006 Starter - Mike Jacobs, Wes Helms
Projected 2007 Starter -Jacobs

You might think that Mike Jacobs would get worse because he will have to face more southpaws this season.  But a certain someone decided to use Jacobs nearly as Wes Helms against lefties, and Jacobs responded with a .182 batting average in those situations.  Jacobs possesses unbelievable power, as his 20 bombs last year traveled over 8,000 total feet, but he does need to improve his plate discipline.

Second Base
2006 Starter - Dan Uggla
Projected 2007 Starter - Uggla

Tony likes to say that Uggla will endure a sophomore slump because of his unimpressive minor league numbers.  Apparently, Tony isn't impressed by an .880 OPS in a pitcher's league.  17 of Uggla's 27 dingers were hit on the road last year, so he should be able to nearly replicate his overall numbers again in 2007.

Third Base
2006 Starter - Miguel Cabrera
Projected 2007 Starter - Cabrera, Aaron Boone

The corner infield positions were the weak links in Florida's defense last season, along with Josh Willingham, of course.  Aaron Boone remains above average defensively, and could see extended time at the hot corner if Jeremy Hermedia takes a while to return from his knee injury.  Miguel Cabrera might be more useful strengthening an anemic outfield than by playing a lackluster third base.  As a player who has hit over 100 home runs before his 24th birthday, the sky may not even limit his offense.

Shortstop
2006 Starter - Hanley Ramirez
Projected 2007 Starter - Ramirez

Last season, I predicted that Hanley Ramirez would be one of the biggest disappointments for the Marlins.  While I couldn't have been more wrong, I stand by that analysis, as Hanley's PrOPS was only .759 last season.  He may be fast enough to eek out a few extra singles than PrOPS would predict, but speed does not account for this .074 differential.  He should still be a solid shortstop this year, but don't expect an OPS over .800. 

Outfield
2006 Starters - Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermedia, Reggie Abercrombie, Alfredo Amezaga
Projected 2007 Starters - Willingham, Hermedia, Amezaga, Cody Ross, Joe Borchard, Alejandro De Aza

Willingham is one of the best-looking hitters in the game, but that's about it.  He looks like a catcher in right field and does not run at all.  He only advanced two bases on a single three times last year, while he was also thrown out three times on the bases somehow.  I don't understand how he stole two bases or how he only grounded into 13 double plays last year.

Jeremy Hermedia can't possibly hit poorly enough to be a bad offensive play for the Fish because of his unbelievable plate patience.  But it is the team that will need to be patient as he recovers from fouling a pitch off his knee.  Cody Ross and Joe Borchard make okay reserve outfielders, but I get the impression that they will both be receiving too many at bats and too many starts in an expansive center field.

Top of the Rotation
2006 Starters - Dontrelle Willis, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen
Projected 2007 Starters - Willis, Olsen, Anibal Sanchez

Willis plunked 19 batters last season, tying his total from the previous three combined.  Having established that he's not afraid to pound batters inside last year, he should be able to pitch away with success and possibly even approach his dominant 2005 numbers.  Scott Olsen might be even better than that.  He has the best slider in all of baseball and one of the best changeups.  As his command of those pitches improves, Olsen will become the Johan Santana of the National League. 

Anibal Sanchez, however, is a bit overrated.  His defense converted over 75% of his balls in play into outs last year, which is an absurd figure.  For comparison, Dontrelle's defense only converted at a 67.9% rate.  His K/BB rate of over 3.5:1 in the minors sunk to sub-2:1 levels in the majors.  He should eventually develop into a great pitcher, but his ERA will hover around the 4.50 mark this season.

Bottom of the Rotation
2006 Options - Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Brian Moehler, Sergio Mitre
Possible 2007 Options - Nolasco, Mitre, Johnson

This team should improve just on the strength of not needing to endure starts from Brian Moehler and Jason Vargas this season.  Conversely, more starts for Nolasco should lead to good times.  And thanks to Joe Girardi's abysmal management decisions regarding Josh Johnson (failing to use him as a starter at the beginning of the year and injuring him by bringing him back after a rain delay at the end of the year), the impressive right hander only made 24 starts last season.  Losing him for a few months because of that same injury this year therefore won't derail the team.  Sergio Mitre might, however, as he's proven himself a 4-A pitcher at this point.   

Bullpen

Marlins Fun Fact The Marlins started a record six rookies on opening day last year, but this season will only start one, de Aza, and he's only on the roster because Hermedia's hurt.

2006 Options - Joe Borowski, Matt Herges, Taylor Tankersley, Randy Messenger
Possible 2007 Options - Jorge Julio, Tankersley, Messenger, Reynel Pinto, Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom

Julio and Lindstrom can each throw 100 MPH, and Pinto isn't too far behind.  They provide the upside.  Tankersley, Messenger, and Gregg provide the consistency.  This no-name bullpen will perform better than people are anticipating, though it's not going to all come together perfectly, either.

Final Word

The Marlins should get a little worse this year due to injuries and lack of depth.  But they may decline less than every other team in the NL East, which should make them contenders for the majority of the season.  Unfortunately, they won't be able to make the kind of deadline deals that the Mets and Phillies can, and so must settle for yet another solid season.  The Marlins have won between 76 and 83 games in six of the past seven seasons.  There's no reason to expect that trend to discontinue this year.