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It didn’t seem all that long ago when Jason Kendall had a .320 career batting average and was one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, as well as one of my favorite players… until I realized that Kurt Suzuki represents a significant upgrade over Kendall. Suzuki’s 19.4 CS% last season bested Kendall’s mark of 15.3%, his league-average OPS was twice as good as what Kendall offered the A’s, and both catchers allowed too many passed balls. Suzuki had respectable minor league numbers, and should continue to solidify his status as a mediocre all-around catcher.
The Daric Barton era has arrived in Oakland. The 22-year old sports a career .412 OBP in the minors, having accumulated 47 more walks than strikeouts there. He hadn’t shown much power until his September callup, when he cranked out 13 extra base hits in just 72 at bats. At minimum, he’s an upgrade over Dan Johnson. I don’t know exactly how high his ceiling is, but he shouldn’t approach it in 2008.
Ellis appears to be one of those good-every-other-year hitters. 2008 projects to be a down year, which would actually benefit the A’s, since they are far more likely to compete in 2009. Ellis’ main contributions come with the glove, however. He ranks fourth among all second basemen with 47 plays made above average over the last three seasons, according to the Fielding Bible’s +/- system. That is all the more impressive considering that Ellis has averaged only 132 games per season in that span.
In March of 2004, Billy Beane signed the then 26-year old Eric Chavez to a six-year, $66 million deal. His offensive numbers have been declining ever since. He can still pick it at the hot corner, but as he enters his 30’s, Chavez could suffer an even more precipitous offensive fall. He may open the season on the DL with shoulder and back issues.
The A’s are generally a good team at putting the ball in play, with only Jack Cust projecting to strike out over 100 times. Unfortunately, Cust also projects to strike out over 200 times and set yet another seasonal strikeout record. The A’s can live with that, since he draws walks and obliterates the ball whenever he happens to connect. Two of the top prospects Beane acquired this winter, Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney, compete for the centerfield job with Kotsay having been shipped to Atlanta. Gonzalez is a phenomenal five-tool talent, but hasn’t quite put everything together yet. Sweeney has a better work ethic than Gonzalez, but still hasn’t developed the power that his frame would suggest. Both outfielders have incredible arms and good range, and both should develop into All-Stars at some point.
Chris Denorfia and Back-to-Back Brown give further depth to that outfield. Denorfia boasts good minor league numbers, while Brown only has the arm to play left field, limiting his usefulness unless he can re-capture the magic of 2005-2006. Jack Hannahan makes a better starter than Chavez at this point; we could say the same about Donnie Murphy over Chavez, except that Murphy appears to be more comfortable at second base.
Is this finally the year that Rich Harden stays healthy? Of course not. But in the roughly 2% likelihood of that occurrence, Harden would neatly replace Dan Haren’s production from last year. That would be paramount, because although Joe Blanton is a solid innings-eater for the middle of the rotation, he’s no ace of the staff.
Oakland actually has several options far better than Gaudin, Duchscherer, an Lenny DiNardo at least. Greg Smith came over along with Eveland in the Haren deal, and brings a .630 winning percentage, 3.27 ERA, and 3:1 K/BB ratio from some hitter-friendly minor leagues. He is a sleeper ROY candidate in a pitcher-friendly environment if he gets a shot this year. Gio Gonzalez, obtained in the Swisher deal, has one of the best power curves in the minor leagues, and could be ready for the show by June. After two disappointing years with the Athletics’ Triple-A affiliate, Dan Meyer finally put together a good season, and appears poised to finally give the A’s some value back for Billy Beane’s ignominious trade of Tim Hudson.
Oakland ranked 21st in reliever’s ERA last year, which is more damning given their extreme pitcher’s park and excellent defense. They did very little to remedy the situation in the offseason, although a healthy Huston Street would certainly help. Keith Foulke was worth a flyer, but hardly guarantees improvement, and newly-acquired Joey Devine will begin the year in Triple-A. Rule V pick Fernando Hernandez Jr. will likely hurt the team this year, but might be worth the roster spot for future retention if Beane indeed deems 2008 a purely developmental season. Outlook for the Season If Rich Harden miraculously stays healthy all year, Beane resists the temptation to trade Harden or Blanton, the young talent develops more quickly than anticipated, Wheelhouse Geren does an excellent job of talent evaluation, and the Angels continue to suffer injuries to their pitching staff, these A’s could actually compete for a playoff spot into September. But clearly, the Athletics are working towards a plan for 2009 and beyond. Billy Beane has an unusually high level of security for a baseball GM – a contract that runs through 2014. He could therefore afford to look towards the future more than most, and that future looks very bright indeed. As for the present, expect a mirror season to the 2006 Marlins: upper-70s in wins and well out of last place. Team Previews Index Do you have a different take? Send your opinions to submissions@baseballevolution.com. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
