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There seems to be a common trend among catchers that are considered journeymen or defensive specialists to develop their offensive skills to the fullest in their early-to-mid thirties. Henry Blanco and Mike Matheny transformed from abysmal with the bat to merely below average. While Zaun doesn't have their defensive skills, he started with a below average bat and has progressed to nearly average. And with Rod Barajas backing him up this season, the Blue Jays figure to get pretty decent offense from the catcher position. By the way, does anyone know why his name is spelled "Gregg" when it's short for Gregory?
Who is Lyle Overbay? Or rather, what first baseman will his career come to resemble? Worst case scenario paints him as a Rico Brogna and has him out of baseball by 2010. Best case scenario has him pounding the ball in his mid-thirties like David Segui. But most likely, he starts to resemble Sean Casey more and more every year. Actually, what we are sure about Overbay is that he is the only lefty in the starting lineup, with Zaun being a switchie and his backup/sometimes DH Matt Stairs being the other significant lefty available. Not too well-balanced.
In 2007, Aaron Hill learned how to swing the bat. His walk rate dipped slightly and his strikeouts increased, but boy did he make better contact. His slugging average rose 73 points, highlighted by his 47 doubles. And he was already a fabulous defender. And he is only 26 years old.
In a rare straight-up swap, the Blue Jays sent Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen this off-season. Either player could prove spectacular or disastrous in 2008. It's easy to forget that Rolen turns 33 this April, considering that he's been a starting third baseman since 1997. But it's also easy to forget that he has had shoulder problems for the last three years and has been abysmal with the bat for two of them. Still, Rolen's career averages are around .280-.370-.510, and anything less should be viewed as a disappointment.
Eckstein was the 2006 World Series MVP and Rolen's teammate for three years. He is a far, far better signing by the Jays (1 yr, 4.5M) than Royce Clayton was last year (1 yr, 1.5M). Clayton, as we at Baseball Evolution boggled at last year, was a clear offensive liability who got jobs based on his reputation as a defender 10 years ago. Eckstein is a 33-year old shortstop with back problems and quickly deteriorating fielding prowess, yes, but he also hit .309 last year and has a career .351 OBP. Teamed with the slick fielding John McDonald, this could prove to be a valuable platoon, and will at least avoid being the train wreck that the position was last year.
I picked Vernon Wells to be the 2007 AL Disappointing Player of the Year, and it was a fabulous choice... for me, but not for poor Vernon. He is still a fixture in center field and should rebound a bit this year, but certainly not enough to justify his 7 year, $126M contract. Alexis Rios is solid-to-excellent offensively with a cannon arm in right, and Shannon Stewart and Reed Johnson are battling for time in left. Throw Stairs into the mix on occasion because he can flat out hit, and Adam Lind because he is young, lefty, and hit a ton in the minors, and this outfield should be plenty adequate, though not spectacular. In other words, it probably won't cut it in the loaded American League.
Thomas stayed healthy throughout 2007 and posted fine yet unspectacular numbers. Matt Stairs was healthy, but only had around 400 plate appearances, and he knocked the snot out of the ball. Both players turn 40 this season, but between them, Barajas, and the glut in the outfield, Toronto has plenty of options here.
The Blue Jays were forced to use Adam Lind last year for injured Reed Johnson, and that seasoning should prime him to contribute in a role off the bench. No more Jason Phillips or Royce Clayton, but welcome Rod Barajas and former A's starter Marco Scutaro as their more capable replacements. Sal Fasano and Curtis Thigpen remain to battle for the third catcher position, and Joe Inglett is a career minor league middle infielder who will vie for a spot on the opening day roster along with C/3B Robinson Diaz.
So, to summarize: Josh Towers is in Colorado!! Josh Towers is in Colorado!!
While all 5 of Toronto's starters are righties, their bullpen boasts an elite lefty setup man in Downs and an elite lefty closer in BJ Ryan. In theory. In practice, Ryan is 10 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and while an effective comeback is possible in that time span, I wouldn't bet my maple syrup collection on it. Accardo served as the closer in Ryan's absence last year and was brilliant, but this bullpen needs a healthy Ryan to hang with the heavy hitters in their division. Outlook for the Season It's easy to paint a picture of optimism for an obviously talented team whose nucleus has been together for about three years now. But nothing comes for free in the AL this year. As in the past three seasons, if fate rolls the right way, these guys could win 90-95 games and win the division or the wild card. But they could just as easily win 90-95 and be left out in the cold. More likely is that they win 85-88 games, and remain relevant in the AL until late August or September, when they can relish their role as able spoilers and also-rans. Team Previews Index Do you have a different take? Send your opinions to submissions@baseballevolution.com. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
