|
Cameron Maybin is a very similar story. This is a guy who got drafted, out of high school, with the 10th overall pick in the 2005 draft. He was very good – but also had weaknesses – at Single-A in 2006, then had an excellent season at A+ ball in 2007. In 2008, he regressed a bit at Double-A, but that didn’t keep the Marlins from naming him their starting centerfielder on opening day in 2009. And he kind of sucked in 2009. Now, in 2010, at the age of 23, he is once again the starting centerfielder on opening day. We’ll see where this goes, but the secret to the Marlins success – consistently getting new superstars in return for their old ones – may not continue to work if they don’t take the time to develop these guys. 2. At the Other End of the Spectrum: Chris Coghlan
Think of it like this: Coghlan probably doesn’t have half the talent of Cameron Maybin, but he was brought along steadily through the minors after three years of college ball. In other words, Coghlan won the Rookie of the Year for the Marlins in his sixth year out of high school, while Cameron Maybin was supposed to be the franchise’s starting centerfielder just three years out of high school. Get that through your head: the less talented player won the Rookie of the Year, and the more talented player is wandering through the desert. 3. Okay, fine, let’s do another one. Jeremy Hermida was the 11th pick in the 2002 draft. In 51 minor league games that year, he was terrible (.249/.340/.343). In 2003, he looked much better, but still managed only a .775 OPS while striking out 100 times and hitting only six homeruns in 134 games. In 2004, at A+ ball, he brought his OPS up to .818, and in 2005 he went up to .975 while walking more than he struck out in 118 games at Double-A. Before the 2006 season, Baseball America rated him the fourth overall major league prospect, and at 22 years old, the Marlins made him their starting right-fielder at a point where Hermida had played one game above the Double-A level. And he has struggled ever since. 4. All of this having been said, should the Marlins be excited about Gaby Sanchez? Well, I wouldn’t expect him to win the Rookie of the Year Award in the National League (ironically, I think a guy who has had no minor league seasoning whatsoever, Jason Heyward, will win that), but Sanchez should be a very good player for the Marlins in 2010. He has five seasons of minor league ball under his belt, he has succeeded at every level, and he looks like a consistent, mature hitter. I guess I would have liked him to finish the 2009 season at Triple-A, but his numbers in 85 games were sublime. I think the Marlins have a very good player at first base in 2010. 5. And Chris Volstad? I don’t see anything to like about Volstad. He was pretty good – with issues – at Double-A Carolina in 2008 before overachieving in 84.1 innings with the Marlins. His major league numbers were not good in 2009, and his one Triple-A outing (the only one of his career) was also quite poor. Volstad is a six-foot-eight-inch righthander, and could be a dominant major league pitcher, but his numbers to this point reflect a guy who has not learned how to pitch yet.
6. Well, do the Marlins have any good players? Actually, they have several. Hanley Ramirez (ironically a guy I never would have made a major leaguer so young; his last full season of minor league ball was at Double-A, at the age of 21, when he went .271/.335/.385 in 122 games; by my logic, this guy should be terrible) is one of the greatest players in the game. Josh Johnson (who has never thrown a pitch in Triple-A and had a WHIP of 1.353 as a 21-year old in Double-A in 2005, and who should therefore suck according to my logic) amazed everyone last season as he finally worked his way back from two miserable injury-filled seasons to throw 209 innings and strike out 191 batters; Johnson may be a Cy Young contender in 2010. Dan Uggla, who is overrated by his fans and underrated by his detractors, is quietly a very valuable commodity at second base when his defense isn’t killing his pitching staff. One of the most interesting players in baseball over the last two years has to beJorge Cantu. In 2008, Cantu has a classic one dimensional slugger season – 29 homeruns, 41 doubles, 92 runs, and 95 RBI, with an RSL of .277/.327/.481/.808, while striking out 111 times to go with only 40 walks. Then, in 2009, he turned into Bobby Abreu, hitting fewer homeruns (16) while driving in more runs (100) with a far more interesting RSL of .289/.345/.443/.788. So which Jorge Cantu will we see in 2010? Whichever Jorge shows up, it is difficult to ignore the fact that this player, who looked like a one-hit wonder in 2005-2006, is looking like a very solid infielder entering his prime. 7. Anyone else?
But check this out: from June 1st to the end of the season, Nolasco went 11-4 with a 3.82 ERA and a 158/31 K/BB ratio in 141.1 innings pitched. Nolasco could have a huge year in 2010. Someone hand him the Bush Award. 8. What About the Closer Position? So glad you asked. For the second time in three years, the Marlins team leader in saves was a player I hadn’t heard of after the fact. Leo Nunez took over the closer role in Miami after Matt Lindstrom was injured and ineffective in the role in the early months of 2009. Nunez looked pretty mediocre on his way to 26 saves with a 4.06 ERA and 13 homeruns allowed. He'll get the job again in 2010, and looks to improve upon his first season ever as a closer. Outlook for the Season The Marlins are where they always are – a talented team with a handful of players who could break out, and the potential to make a run for the wild card. In 2010, the NL East has two of the best teams in the National League in the Phillies and Braves, and that will be too much to overcome. Team Previews Index Do you have a different take? Send your opinions to submissions@baseballevolution.com. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
