This spring, I drew a lengthy parallel between the 2004/2005 Chicago White Sox and the 2008/2009 Cincinnati Reds, culminating in the conclusion that this year's Reds would advance to the postseason and beyond.  Unfortunately, the Reds were mired in fifth place and three games under .500 at the All-Star break, with one of their best hitters headed to the disabled list with a severe wrist injury.

As it turns out, there has been a close parallel between a recent White Sox team and a 2009 squad, but it wasn't the one I had made.  It is instead the 2008/2009 Rays that are following the unfortunate path of the 2005/2006 Chicago White Sox.

As you may recall, the 2005 White Sox were a surprise to many, just as last year's Devil Rays were.  The Sox had improved by 16 wins while the Rays improved by a whopping 29 from the year before.  In both cases, pitching and defense were responsible for the turnaround, with both teams actually scoring fewer runs than the year before (just eight fewer runs for the Rays, but a whopping 124 fewer for the Sox). 

With offense clearly their weakest area, both teams set out to improve the offense.  For the Sox, that meant trading for Phillies slugger Jim Thome, who would go on to enjoy two of the best consecutive seasons for a White Sox hitter - possibly the best ever for a White Sox player 35 or older.  The Rays went for Phillies slugger Pat Burrell, who conversely has been about as disappointing as he could possibly be so far.

Nevertheless, the Rays have jumped from scoring 4.78 runs per game last year to 5.35 through the first half of 2009.  While the White Sox increased from 4.57 R/G in 2005 to 5.36 primarily from Thome's arrival, they also benefited from career years courtesy of Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede.  The Rays are getting all of their offensive boost from career years.  Carl Crawford, Willy Aybar, and the Gabes Gross and Kapler are as good or better than they have ever been, while Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett seem like completely new players offensively.

But while these teams took major strides forward offense, they both took a slight hit in the pitching and defense categories.  The Sox missed Aaron Rowand's centerfield defense and endured a nightmarish first half from the dependable Mark Buehrle, whose arm was clearly affected by an appearance in the World Baseball Classic following a career-high 260 innings pitched in 2005.  Buehrle went 3-9 with a 7.12 ERA from July onwards; an eerily similar ERA to Scott Kazmir's 7.11 tally before the All-Star break this year.  Kaz was not coming off a career-high in innings, but rather already had a history of injury as a young flamethrower.  While the Rays don't have a single Rowandesque change to point to for the decline of their defense, the decline is readily evident.  They ranked 8th in Plus/Minus rating among all 30 teams last year, but came in ranked 14th going into the break this season.

For the Sox, the added run scoring and decline in run prevention meant a dip from 99 to 90 wins and a dip in expected winning percentage from .562 to .543.  The Rays are on a pace to dip from 97 to 87 victories, but have actually increased their expected winning percentage from .568 to .584. 

The Sox missed the playoffs in 2006 because the AL Central went from being a strong division to clearly the class of Major League Baseball.  Similarly, the AL East has always been string, but this year it is incredible, and the divisional difficulties have the Rays mired in third place, 6.5 games out of first and 3.5 away from a playoff spot.

So are these Rays doomed to repeat the agony of the 2006 White Sox?  To be perhaps the fourth or fifth best team in MLB yet to be forgotten years later because they failed to reach the postseason?  Not necessarily.  While Buehrle likely pitched through an injury in 2006, none of his teammates really missed time due to stints on the DL.  These Rays have dealt with injuries to many key players, and if they are healthier as a team in the second half, they could grab a playoff spot.  Also, the fact that Kazmir's bad half is already behind him could loom large.  If he is anything close to the Kazmir of the second half, his team will flourish. 

Finally, the Rays' aforementioned Pythagorean expectation has to be cause for optimism.  They are only one game behind Boston in Expected Wins.  That's not going to be of much consolation if they miss the postseason, but it's a pretty strong indicator that they still have a good shot at the postseason.

So maybe these Rays will be able to break the mold of the 2006 White Sox and breeze through the postseason, showing Sox fans what might have been in 2006.  On the other hand, they might just surpass the 2006 White Sox as the best team of the Wild Card Era not to reach the postseason.  I, for one, can hardly wait to find out which it is.