The Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins Candidates
The Mark Redman Candidates

Many sportswriters use the All-Star break as a time to dole out MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year Awards.  The thing is, The great players of the first half may not be the ones in the running at the end of the year.  What if Travis Hafner relaxes with his new contract and puts together a couple of months like last August?  If the Tigers suffer some injuries and fall out of the playoff hunt, is Magglio Ordonez still a viable candidate?  Will Carlos Zambrano's self proclaimed "new season" that began June 6th in Milwaukee continue and lead him to a Cy Young Award?

We just don't know for sure.  A contrastingly unique element to the Alex Gonzalez of the Marlins and Mark Redman Awards is that we already have the list of candidates narrowed down.  By definition, a player must have had a good first half to be eligible for the hardware, or at least a better first half than we would normally predict given his career track record.  So let's examine these potential second half busts in some detail.

PrOPS and FIP are two of the best ways to identify potential chokers.  PrOPS estimates a batter's OPS mostly by using his batted ball data (% line drives vs. popups, BB vs K, etc.).  FIP calculates an ERA for pitchers based solely on the elements of pitching most under their control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.  One caveat for using both statistics in this manner is that a pitcher getting good defense behind him in the first half will likely continue to if he is playing on a good defensive team, and a batter who is getting a lot of cheap home runs  because he hits in a bandbox may continue to do so as well ( i.e. we would expect Padres hitters to under-perform their PrOPS and outperform their FIP).

AL First half "leaders" in OPS-PrOPS, courtesy of The Hardball Times:

One way to "beat" your Predicted OPS is with speed.  Guys like Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, and Derek Jeter generally outperform their PrOPS by beating out slowly hit grounders and taking extra bases on outfield hits.  We can pretty much eliminate these guys, from AGotM contention.  While Curtis Granderson is fast, he didn't really outperform his PrOPS last year, and actually had a terrible second half of 2006 to boot.  I can't in good conscience pick him, however, as eventually Jim Leyland is going to figure out NEVER TO USE GRANDERSON AGAINST LEFT HANDED PITCHING.  NOT EVER.  Seriously, I don't care how good his defense is:

vs LHP: 72 AB, 24 K, 2 BB - .139/.162/.250
vs. RHP: 267 AB, 58K, 25 BB - .322/.379/.629 

...and if he's only facing right handers in the second half, his numbers can't decline that much.

Mags would then seem like a good choice, but he's simply too good of a player.  A second half OPS of .877 might still be enough to keep him in the MVP running.  Pedroia and Youkilis are relative Joe Sewells.  By almost never striking out, they give themselves a chance to take advantage of Fenway Park's quirky dimensions.  I expect some regression here, but nothing of Alex Gonzalez proportions.

It's always fun to pick middle infielders for the AGotM contention.  I don't like to pick shortstops to win a Dave Kingman or first basemen to win an Alex Gonzalez.  It just doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the award, somehow.  Fortunately, Brian Roberts gives me a middle infielder to consider nearly every year in the AL.  Orlando Cabrera also had a rough second half last year, although that kind of choking is not typical for him.  But both of these guys are fast, and both of these guys are in their primes.  As much as I'd like to, I'm not going to forecast their implosion.

Jorge Posada turns 36 in August.  How many 36-year old everyday catchers who have over 1,400 career games caught do you know that have strong second halves?  The real odd thing about Posada is that his walks have been significantly down over the past two-and-a-half years.  Plate patience generally improves with age, and you would think this would hold even more truth with experienced catchers who gauge the strike zone for 150 pitches a game.  Tony gets a chance to see Posada play almost every day, and assures me that Jorge has benefited from an awful lot of lucky bloop hits this year.  As much as I would love to take a middle infielder, I'm going to say that Posada takes the award with a disappointing second half.       

NL First half "leaders" in OPS-PrOPS, courtesy of The Hardball Times:

Again, we can pretty safely eliminate speedsters Hanley Ramirez, Willy Taveras, Jose Reyes, and Alfonso Soriano from this contention.  Matt Holiday should keep up decent offensive production in the still-hitter-friendly Coors Field, although you should definitely anticipate better second half from teammates Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins, all of whom have higher PrOPS figures. 

Utley and Cabrera are two more guys who appear able to consistently beat their PrOPS.  Is it because they hit the ball to all fields?  I don't know, but I'm certainly not going to bet against two of the best young hitters in the game here. 

Honestly, I'm beating around the bush.  As soon as you saw that list you knew that Hunter Pence and Dmitri Young were the targets. 

Pence, though a lauded prospect, hadn't really put up outstanding numbers above Low-A ball until his 22-game stint in Round Rock this year, particularly in the plate discipline department.  You always have to be suspicious of rookies, who need to make second half adjustments as teams acquire more in-depth scouting reports against them. 

Dmitri Young hasn't posted an OPS over .817 since 2003, and his seasonal OPS numbers has actually been declining steadily since that year.  He's 36 years old, overweight, and was discarded in favor of Sean Casey and Chris Shelton in the Detroit Tigers' 2006 World Series run. 

I might not pick Young because his success would represent a triumph over alcoholism, obesity, laziness, allegations of domestic abuse, and type-II diabetes.  But the real reason I won't pick him is that if he starts to falter, Nick Johnson's return could relegate Dmitri into a part-time role that would better suit his physique.  In contrast, the Astros are desperate for any hitter who can manage a .700 OPS at this point, and even though Pence only walked 10 times in 286 first half appearances, I think he can manage a .700 OPS in the final months.  

The Mark Redman Candidates