by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
May 22, 2008
Return to Part 1
So how can we quantify a catcher's throwing arm using this data? I've
always quantified stolen base contributions by using
Stolen Base Runs, which turn a
player's stolen bases and stolen base percentage into a counting stat using what
Pete Palmer calculated as the all-time necessary break even point for a stolen
base success rate to translate into positive runs: 63.5%. The formula is:
SBR = .3 * SB - .52 * CS
So it's real easy to translate this into Caught Stealing Runs for a catcher:
CSR = .52 * CS - .3 * SB
Basically then, if a catcher has a caught stealing rate of over 36.5%, he
will have prevented runs for his team, whereas below 36.5% will give him a
negative value. Using this all-time mark of 36.5% is imperfect; the mark
during Piazza's era as catcher was more like 33.3%, a significant difference.
For the moment, let's use the universal formula, and hope that it balances out
with Bench being shafted from many caught stealings because base runners refused
to run on his famous cannon.
CSR for selected catchers:
|
Player |
SB |
CS |
CS% |
CSR |
|
Ivan Rodriguez |
654 |
589 |
47.4% |
110.1 |
|
Jim Sundberg |
1012 |
710 |
41.2% |
65.6 |
|
Thurman Munson |
533 |
427 |
44.5% |
62.1 |
|
Johnny Bench |
610 |
469 |
43.5% |
60.9 |
|
Bob Boone |
1108 |
731 |
39.7% |
47.7 |
|
Sherm Lollar |
190 |
163 |
46.2% |
27.8 |
|
Yogi Berra |
154 |
141 |
47.8% |
27.1 |
|
Joe Torre |
322 |
223 |
40.9% |
19.4 |
|
Darrell Porter |
902 |
553 |
38.0% |
17.0 |
|
Roy Campanella |
45 |
35 |
43.8% |
4.7 |
|
Bill Freehan |
741 |
433 |
36.9% |
2.9 |
|
Gene Tenace |
515 |
290 |
36.0% |
-3.7 |
|
Smokey Burgess |
228 |
122 |
34.9% |
-5.0 |
|
Brian Downing |
519 |
264 |
33.7% |
-18.4 |
|
Tony Pena |
1225 |
656 |
34.9% |
-26.4 |
|
Gary Carter |
1498 |
810 |
35.1% |
-28.2 |
|
Ted Simmons |
1188 |
611 |
34.0% |
-38.7 |
|
Carlton Fisk |
1302 |
664 |
33.8% |
-45.3 |
|
Mickey Tettleton |
581 |
238 |
29.1% |
-50.5 |
|
Jorge Posada |
812 |
338 |
29.4% |
-67.8 |
|
Mike Stanley |
534 |
165 |
23.6% |
-74.4 |
|
Mike Piazza |
1400 |
423 |
23.2% |
-200.0 |
*Lavender denotes incomplete data
Wow. Here's a scary way to look at it: Piazza allowed only six fewer
stolen bases than Rickey Henderson had in his career, and Rickey is the only
player known to have more positive Stolen Base Runs than Mike Piazza has
negative Caught Stealing Runs. Head-and-shoulders above other catchers as
Piazza is offensively, he is also feet-and-legs below them in terms of gunning
down base runners. Most catchers with arms as weak as Piazza's are either
backups with few at bats or are quickly moved to another position, like Mike
Stanley and Mickey Tettleton were. As an aside, why wasn't Joe Torre kept
behind the dish? And is Derek Jeter the only Yankee who needs to find a
new position ASAP?
So let's add up batting runs, stolen base runs, and caught stealing runs for
some of our top catchers and observe how they line up:
| Catcher |
BR |
SBR |
CSR |
Total |
DP% (Est)** |
| Johnny Bench |
267 |
-2.0 |
60.9 |
325.9 |
11.6 |
| Yogi Berra |
239 |
-4.5 |
27.1 (77.9)* |
261.6 (312.4)* |
8.73 |
| Ivan Rodriguez |
108 |
4.9 |
110.1 |
223 |
15.4 |
| Mike Piazza |
422 |
-5.3 |
-200.0 |
216.7 |
14.8 |
| Carlton Fisk |
192 |
8.2 |
-45.3 |
154.9 |
10.4 |
| Jorge Posada |
200 |
-4.6 |
-67.8 |
127.6 |
12.8 |
| Gary Carter |
162 |
-10.1 |
-28.2 |
123.7 |
9.98 |
* 64.3% of Yogi's games at catcher were played prior to SB/CS
data availability. Extrapolating his 27.8 CSR across his career, we arrive
at 77.9 estimated CSR. However, it's also worth noting that Yogi's defense
early in his career was considered sub par. His actual total is probably
noticeably shy of 77.9.
**Double play percentage is estimated assuming that every one
in five plate appearances presents a hitter with a double play opportunity.
Since none of these catchers were leadoff hitters, that estimate is probably
very close to reality.
Where should Piazza rank relative to Johnny Bench? Quite a bit lower,
I'm afraid. Also, unless Mickey Cochrane had -34 CSR in his career, he would
rank higher than Piazza. Hartnett would need -25 and Dickey would need
-27. It is unlikely that any of these three catchers had negative CSR
totals, as they each averaged way more assists per game than Bench, Berra, and
I-Rod (though it's worth noting that those totals were inflated by the
prevalence of the sac bunt).
Now, if we use a modern formula for Rodriguez and Piazza (.6 * CS - .3 * SB
for a break-even point of 33.3%), we get "only" a -166.2 CSR mark for Piazza
(for a total of 250.5) but an even higher mark of 157.2 for Rodriguez (total:
270.1). So although that would close the gap between Piazza and our
quintet of older catchers, he would still trail I-Rod no matter where we et the
modern break-even point at.
Additionally, Piazza has a worse double play rate than all of these catchers
(except Rodriguez, and possibly Cochrane, for whom we have no data). He
has fewer assists per game than all of these catchers except Posada. His
fielding percentage is one point below the league average, whereas all of these
other catchers are above (as high as +5 for Cochrane and +6 for Dickey and
Hartnett). Piazza's passed ball rate, which you would expect to be better
than those of catchers who played with inferior equipment, is still worse than
what Cochrane, Bench, Campanella, Dickey, and Berra put up, among others.
Where does Piazza rank among the all-time great catchers? Much lower
than Scott and I have him, for sure, and probably even lower than Asher, Tony,
and Richard do. But kudos to Rich for his ranking of Ivan Rodriguez,
recognizing that for a position like catcher, defense really can be nearly as
important as offense.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Keith resides in Chicago, Illinois and can be reached at keith@baseballevolution.com or found at the Baseball Evolution Forum