Steroids. Who knew that one word could elicit such aggression, animosity, and debate when viewed in a baseball context? It’s quite interesting. A better question is, “why do fans act so aggressively towards alleged steroid users?” Is it really because they are upset that Barry Bonds has hit more home runs that Hank Aaron? Tony doesn't think so.

4/28/09 - Don't Blame The Fans - Every year, knowledgeable baseball fans and analysts lament some of the All-Star selections made by the popular vote. But every year, Major League Baseball distributes All-Star ballots at major league ballparks a little earlier. This year, ballots arrived at stadiums on Monday, April 27th - barely three weeks into the regular season. Fans could be making seemingly intelligent choices based on three weeks of play, but many of those choices will seem foolish come July. If this pace continues, we will soon see All-Star voting begin to take place on opening day.

For lack of a better word, the 1970s were an interesting decade. There’s no question why author Bill Reynolds chose to chronicle Boston - satiated with tension and racial hatred during that era - in his book, '78: The Boston Red Sox, a Historic Game, and a Divided City. Reynolds brilliantly draws parallels between the Athens of America’s social dichotomy and perhaps the most famous game in the sport’s history, the 1978 one game playoff between the Red Sox and Yankees in each chapter to advance his story.

04/19/09: Lowered Expectations - Twice today, San Francisco loaded the bases with nobody out and scored just one run in the inning. In the 4th, a sac fly got the run in, while in the 8th, it was a double play that plated the run. You would not believe how excited the Giants' announcers were at both of these outcomes. After that double play, they even went so far as to criticize Arizona for taking the double play rather than settling for an attemped forceout at the plate on a deep grounder up the middle. The double play did make the game 2-0 heading into the 9th, but closer Brian Wilson had allowed two runs to these same Diamondbacks the previous day.

In 2008, with no outs and the bases loaded, teams averaged 2.3 runs scored in the remainder of the inning. The Giants' offense twice fell way short of an average peformance and their announcers nearly broke out with the Dance of Joy. Talk about lowered expectations.

November 18th will mark the 10-year anniversary of Voros McCracken's revolutionary notion that pitchers have little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. Once met with unbridled skepticism, McCracken's theories have grown in popularity over the past decade to the point where people who use stats like WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) are laughed out of analytical circles for not using stats like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching ERA).

Nearly 10 years after we first heard about it, what do we really know about Defense-Independent Pitching?

Asher is pretty convinced that either Keith doesn't know as much as he should, or he hasn't payed as close attention to the lessons of DIPS from the last decade. Either way, Asher doesn't think Keith has evaluated what happened yesterday with Vazquez and Harden as fully as he should have.

April 7, 2009: The Kid is Back! - Admit it, you loved it. Just as much as you loved it when the Kid and the Dad hit back to back homeruns in 1990 with the Mariners, you loved seeing a more portly and less agile Ken Griffey, Jr. hit his eighth opening day homerun in his first game back in a Mariners uniform. Despite all that can be said about Griffey, and the poor prospects of the 2009 Seattle Mariners, for one day it was the 1990s again, back when baseball was a little more magical and a little less suspect.

In related news, the quote of the day comes from the Associated Press wire reports, dripping with what we hope, but doubt, is a healthy dose of irony:

"[Ken] Griffey's 41 homers against Minnesota are his most against any opponent, a remarkable number given his nine years in the National League."

Not so remarkable at all, considering what happened in those nine years.   --ABC

Opening day is here, and that means it's time for the staff of Baseball Evolution to reveal its predictions for the upcoming season.  But these aren't your local beat writer's cut-and-paste of last year's standings.  Baseball Evolution sets out to divine the exact win total for each club, map out how the postseason will play out, award the best (and worst) players in both leagues, and peg the leaderboards for every major statistical category (and even some not-so major ones).

Our willingness to go against the grain has produced some gems in the past, as well as some embarrassments. Last year, Tony predicted that Chipper Jones would lead the NL in OPS when everyone else thought he was on the downside of his career.  Then again, he's also the one who picked Seattle to win the AL west with 86 wins.  Rich's pick of Joe Blanton to disappoint was prescient - until he got traded to the Phillies and helped lead them to a World Championship, making his selection of Blanton for the Mark Redman Award particularly poor.  Keith was one of the few people who saw Carlos Quentin's breakout season coming, but he's also the guy who expected Dontrelle Willis to lead the AL with 230 innings pitched.  And of course, Asher has been kicking himself for the past 11 months for "only" picking the Rays to win 87 games when most people had them pegged for a 12th consecutive losing season.

Among the surprises you'll see in our predictions this year: Tony forecasts that this will finally be the year that Javier Vazquez returns to his pre-Yankees form and wins a Cy Young Award.  Rich thinks that Ian Kinsler will finally be healthy all year and increase his hits total by more than 40% over his career-high of 165 set last year.  Asher - an alleged Cubs fan - makes predictions for the rival Mets and the Brewers that even rabid fans of those teams wouldn't dare to make.  Keith foresees unusual winners in all three NL divisions, with three teams that each won 74 games or fewer last year rising to the top.  But even that can't compare with guest contributor Avi Brand's prognostications.  Those are simply among the boldest set of predictions that you'll ever lay your eyes upon.

Time will tell whether this year's predictions rank as ones to remember or ones to forget.  Feel free to post your two cents in the Baseball Evolution Fan Forum.

The Toronto offseason was terrible, as they lost three excellent starting pitchers, failed to use their bullpen surplus to address other needs, and boasted Kevin Millar as their marquee acquisition.  But that doesn't mean this isn't still a very good team.  This is a ballclub that had a pythagorean record of 93-69 (.574) that went 51-37 (.580) after Toronto legend Cito Gaston reclaimed his rightful role as King of the Blue Jays.  Full seasons of Adam Lind and Travis Snider will replace worthless at-bats from Brad Wilkerson, Matt Stairs, Frank Thomas, and Shannon Stewart, transforming their offense from one of the worst in the league to at least league-average.

The question of whether they can compete this season will be answered by their team defense's ability to bolster their unproven rotation to the point where they are serviceable pitchers.

The 2009 Texas Rangers come into the season with, if nothing else, another year of continuity on both the field and in the manager's office. Manager Ron Washington brings back an eerily similar squad to the one he had entering the past season, complete with the "Past-Their-Prime-Outfielders Tour" hosted annually by the Rangers. They have the same pitching, too. Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla again are the "strength" of the rotation. This has disaster written all over it, right? Maybe..... or maybe not.

The Houston Astros are going to be terrible this season. They are one of the worst five teams in the league, despite their management's positive babble. Cecil Cooper says he thinks his team can win 90 games this year because they went 42-24 in the second half last year. Ed Wade thinks that anything can happen and points out that nobody believed in his team last year.

Let's get real. Beyond the fact that their second half last year was so good it would be difficult for any team to match, they do not have the same team, so the point is moot. In fact, they’ve given up several key players from last year’s “run,” including Ty Wigginton and Randy Wolf.

The 2009 season promises to be similar to the 1998 campaign for St. Louis. The incomparable Albert Pujols has a fully healthy right elbow for the first time since 2002, so he is now the best chance our generation has seen to win the National League Triple-Crown. Unfortunatley, the talent surrounding him may not be enough for the Cardinals to make the postseason, just like Mark McGwire's historic 1998 squad.

Much has been made of the Mets’ late-season collapses the past couple of years, and their inability to make it past the regular season despite significant leads in September is impossible to avoid. Fortunately for the Mets, they appear to have solved the problems that plagued them last year with a busy offseason. The question is: have they done enough to contend again and win?

When a team loses five good players to free agency and replaces them with Jon Garland, Felipe Lopez, Scott Schoeneweis, and Tom Gordon, you expect that team to fail. But anything is possible in the NL West, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have a young nucleus that can keep them competitive.

For years, the Red Sox have been known for their innovative and efficient front office. In 2003, they were on the cusp of catching the Yankees, and now they have blown right past them. This offseason, the Red Sox responded to the Yankees’ spending spree by signing a trio of low-risk, moderately high-reward arms. These modest upgrades will make it tough to knock the Bosox out of contention for the AL East crown.

Bad news. The Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, and Minnesota Twins all figure to improve this season, while the Chicago White Sox have clearly stepped backwards. Chicago traded two players poised for rebound seasons at low value, getting no immediate help in return, while their biggest impact on the free agent market was signing an aging, out-of-shape pitcher who hasn't been successful since 2005.

2008 marked the first time since 1994 in which the Yankees did not reach the playoffs. So in order keep their playoff drought at one year, what did they do? Well, they did what they always do: throw wild amounts of money at free agents. Despite scooping up the top three agents on the market, the Yankees are in a division where the margin of error is minimal, and are not guaranteed to play come October.