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April, 2010


April 18, 2010 - The Giants Two Weeks In: Almost two weeks into the season the San Francisco Giants, by the estimation of some, have been among the surprise teams out of the gate. At 8-3 at this early juncture, they sit atop the NL West, but what's been most encouraging hasn't been the way they've played (which really has been very encouraging), but the obvious confidence with which they've been playing. Not surprisingly, their pitching has been strong, posting a 3.18 team ERA in the early going, second only to the Cardinals in that category. They also lead the senior circuit with three shutouts after leading the Majors last year with 18, their latest coming on Saturday against the division rival Dodgers with their ace, back-to-back Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum, leading the way.

Where the Giants have been surprising, however, has been at the plate.

I am tired of trying to figure how to refer to a player's combination of average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. I often refer to a guy having "put up a" and then producing the line of stats, each separated by backslashes, as in: "Last season, Jorge Cantu put up a .289/.345/.443/.788." This seems imperfect. Other times, I'll refer to this set of stats as a "AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS," as in "In 2008, Dan Uggla hit 32 homeruns, but his AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS was only .260/.360/.514/.874, and he provided subpar defense." Also no good.

In essence, what we are doing when we quote these numbers is giving the reader the player's rate stats. Instead of saying "Jeremy Hermida had a .296 batting average to go with his .369 on-base percentage and a surprising .501 slugging percentage for a total OPS of .870," we are giving a very concise but very relevant stat-line of rate statistics. We just need a simple way to refer to it.

And so, on this day - April 7, 2010 - I have decided that from now on, I will refer to this arrangement by the simplest description of just what it is: the Rate Stat Line, or "RSL" for short. From now, when I refer to a player's RSL, we'll all know exactly what I mean.

And I encourage you all to do the same.

-ABC

In 2009, Scott correctly predicted that the Los Angeles Dodgers would win 95 games after they had won just 84 the previous year. Keith knew that Heath Bell would lead the National League in saves even though he had just two in his career before the season began. Rich foresaw Tim Lincecum's second consecutive Cy Young Award and Todd Helton's resurgent season. Meanwhile, Chris Carpenter was Asher's comeback player, and he improbably nailed Zach Greinke for AL Cy Young.

But we don't pretend that all of our predictions go so smoothly. Scott predicted that Chipper Jones would win another batting title and the 2009 NL MVP Award. Keith figured that the Reds would get to the World Series and that the Giants would lose the most games in baseball. Rich had the Rays and the Cubs winning the most games in their respective leagues and meeting in the World Series. Asher thought that the Mets would win 101 games and that the Mariners would lose 103.

What can we expect from BaseballEvolution.com's 2010 predictions?  More hits, more misses, several bold leaps of faith, and the most comprehensive baseball prognostications you'll find anywhere.  And although you'll always find dissent among our analysts, there is a grand consensus this season: Believe in the Braves!

Something odd has been brewing in Arlington, Texas: Genuine, over-the-top optimism. Some of the players have predicted as many as 95 wins this season, while team president, Nolan Ryan has gone on record with a 92-win prediction.

As usual, though, the Rangers have managed to bring the good news, bad news routine to Arlington. The good news is that your franchise brings back many of the key components of their offensive machine, with the possibility of improvement as they�ve added young prospect Julio Borbon and veteran slugger Vlad Guerrero to the starting mix. All they need now is to avoid losing any ground in the pitching department.

Did we mention there was bad news?

The Cleveland Indians begin this new decade in the same place that they find themselves every five years or so � rebuilding. Working with what is left of the would-be Cleveland Indians Dynasty of the Aughts (Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Fausto Carmona, Jhonny Peralta), the returns on the trades of Sabathia (Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley) and Lee (Lou Marson, Carlos Carrasco), and some interesting new faces, the Indians expect to field a viable major league baseball team in 2010.

They may even win some games.

An inept offense kept the San Francisco Giants out of the playoffs last year, and the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. When scoring three or fewer runs last season, the Giants had a miserable record of 22-59, but when they scored four or more, they were 66-15. That's a .815 winning percentage when scoring four or more runs for a team that scored three runs or fewer 81 times. With merely an average offense, the Giants might have made it to the postseason in '09.

An inept offense kept the San Francisco Giants out of the playoffs last year, and the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. When scoring three or fewer runs last season, the Giants had a miserable record of 22-59, but when they scored four or more, they were 66-15. That's a .815 winning percentage when scoring four or more runs for a team that scored three runs or fewer 81 times. With merely an average offense, the Giants might have made it to the postseason in '09.

With all that in mind, GM Brian Sabean went into the off-season looking to add some much needed pop to an otherwise punchless lineup. To that end, he added free-agents Aubrey Huff (1-year, $3M) and Mark DeRosa (2-years, $12M). Not exactly the kind of thump Giants fans were hoping for, but it might be enough.

With the departures of Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, an Placido Polanco, The Detroit Tigers aren't expected to be a particularly competitive team in 2010. But when you consider the players they added, the former stars on their roster who could be primed for comeback seasons, and the weak division in which they play, you may come to realize that Detroit stands a pretty good shot at postseason play.