After getting swept by the Mets in last year’s NLDS, the Dodgers seemed poised to get back into the playoffs once again this year. The signings of Schmidt and Wolf give them incredible rotation depth. They also appear to be able to score 800+ runs again, and should see the number of runs they allowed to go down from last year. On paper, the Dodgers look like they could go a long way.

Catcher

2006 Starter- Russell Martin

2007 Starters- Martin, Mike Lieberthal

I have to say, I like this platoon a lot. It actually could be one of the very few catcher platoons to actually work out. In only 209 AB last year, Mike hit 9 HR and slugged .469, which was .021 above league average. On the other side of the coin, the Dodgers have Martin, who is an up and coming 24-year old catcher. He doesn’t have too much power (10 HR in 415 AB) but he does hit for average well, along with good on-base abilities. This platoon would work best if Martin plays 4-5 times a week, and Lieberthal plays 2-3 times a week.

Projection-.277/.348/.438

First Base

2006 Starter- Nomar Garciaparra

2007 Starters- Garciaparra, James Loney

Last year, Nomar was Mr. Hyde in the first half of the season, and Dr. Jekyll in the second. In the first half, he OPSed to the tune of 1.004 and belted 11 HR, while in the second half he had a dismal OPS of .694 and 9 HR. Most people would project him to have an OPS from .800-.850, but I’m still high on Nomar. He is still relatively young, and first base doesn’t leave a lot of wear and tear on your body. Also, it seems people have forgotten how good of a hitter Nomar really was. He has only slugged lower than .475 twice, and has been a doubles machine. If healthy, Nomar should still rake it.

Projection- .300/.357/.512

Second Base

2006 Starter- Jeff Kent

2007 Starter- Kent

For some reason, Jeff Kent hit 15 fewer homeruns in ’05, than in ’06 without his BA or OBP suffering.  So why the sudden drop? I highly doubt aging one year can cause you to fall of a cliff like that, and it’s not like he is a catcher. If we look at his batted ball data, we see that his FB% dropped 4%, but his LD% increased by 2%. There is no real red flag, especially since his BA and OBP actually increased in ’06, which leads me to believe that he still has the ability to hit 20 HR.

Projection- .283/.360/.489

Third Base

2006 Starters- Wilson Betemit, Bill Mueller

2007 Starter- Betemit

There is no doubt in my mind that Betemit has 20+ HR power in him, he just needs to play a full season. Last season in only 373 AB, Betemit hit 18 HR and 23 2B, giving him a very respectable .469 SLG%. However, the one thing just jumps out at you is how poorly he performed after he was traded to the Dodgers.  It wasn’t a result of Dodger Stadium, since he had an OPS over .900 there. It was probably just a slump, which is something that all players, especially inexperienced ones, go through.

Projection- .270/.330/.475

Shortstop

2006 Starter- Rafael Furcal

2007 Starter- Furcal

It is my belief that Furcal is a very underrated SS. He provides very good defense, as he is ranked 5th among shortstops in John Dewan’s +/- system since 2004. He has stolen 226 bases in his five year career at a very good 77% clip, is not afraid to take a walk, and doesn’t ground into too many double plays.  In the past three years, his BA, OBP and SLG have all gone up, and at age 28, he should be in the middle of his prime. Furcal seems poised to have a career year.

Projection- .310/.380/.449

Outfield

2006 Starters- J.D Drew, Kenny Lofton, Andre Either, Jose Cruz Jr.

2007 Starters- Either, Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, Brady Clark, Matt Kemp

As much as I love this team, the outfield really puzzles me. It doesn’t make too much sense to me to sign Luis Gonzalez coming off his worst year since ’97. The Pierre signing was very odd as well, but at least he is still young. I understand Loney is a first baseman, but I would have tried him in LF. He would have provided more offense, and cost a lot less money. Either will be moving to right field, and should be able to improve upon his rookie season. He had an OPS of .947 before joining the team, and appears to be no fluke.

Juan Pierre may get a lot of hits, but he also makes a lot of outs. He has been in the top three in outs made in the past four years. This team is far and away the best in the National League, but their outfield scares me.

Starting Rotation

2006 Starters- Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Greg Maddux, Mark Hendrickson, Aaron Sele, Chad Billingsly, Brett Tomko, Jae Wong Seo

2007 Starters- Lowe, Jason Schmidt, Penny, Randy Wolf, Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo

If Wolf can stay healthy, this team has the best rotation in all of baseball. Schmidt eclipsed the 200 IP mark for the third time in four years, and had a respectable K/BB ratio that was over 2:1. Lowe should remain the team’s ace, as he has pitched over 200 innings in both his years with the Dodgers while posting an ERA below four by inducing a ton of double plays. Penny should be slotted into the third spot, and whenever your number 3 guy can pitch 190 innings with a K/BB ratio approaching three, you’re in good shape.

The back of the rotation could be a little shaky. Randy Wolf hasn’t been healthy in three seasons, but the last time he was healthy he logged 200 innings with a K/BB ratio over 2. Also, deciding to sign a one year deal could be an indication that he is finally healthy and is confident. It appears that Billingsley and Kuo will battle it out for the 5th spot, but I believe Kuo deserves it. Billingsley’s K/BB ratio of 1 scares me, while Kuo struck out 10.7 per nine innings and gave up only 3 HR in 59.7 IP last season.

Bullpen

2006 Starters- Danys Baez, Takashi Saito, Jonathon Broxton, Joe Beimel

2007 Starters- Saito, Broxton, Beimel, Tomko, Hendrickson

I was shocked when I found out that Saito was 37 years old, but I can’t help but to drool over the fact he struck out 12.3 per nine innings with an amazing K/BB ratio over five. He also only allowed 3 HR in 78.3 innings. Look for him to lead the NL in saves next year. Broxton should be a great setup man, as he sports an excellent K/BB ratio while striking out more than a batter per inning.

Final Word

Without a doubt, the Dodgers are the most well-rounded team in the N.L. While there are no real Cy Young contenders (Keith thinks otherwise) or MVP candidates, this team does everything well. They have a good mix of young players with some veterans, and most importantly, they can pitch. It looks like these Dodgers will some revenge on the New York Yankees after the ’77 and ’78 seasons.