2010 San Francisco Giants: Any Offense Will Do
BaseballEvolution.com Spring Preview
by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
April 2, 2010
| Key Transactions |
| Acquired || Pos. |
| Mark DeRosa|| Util|
Guillermo Mota|| RP |
Santiago Casilla|| RP|
| || |
| Departed || Pos. |
| Randy Winn|| OF|
| Randy Johnson|| SP|
| Rich Aurilia|| 1B |
| Ryan Garko|| 1B|
| Brad Penny|| SP|
| Bobby Howry|| RP|
| Merkin Valdez|| RP|
| Justin Miller|| RP|
There's no secret to why the San Francisco Giants
won 88 games in 2009, sixteen more than they had the previous season. Quite
simply, it was the pitching. Led by back-to-back Cy Young award winner Tim
Lincecum, the Giants staff led the major leagues in complete games (11),
shutouts (18), and strikeouts (1,302), plus ranked second in ERA (3.55) behind
only the L.A. Dodgers.
Their offense, on the other hand, plated only 17
more runners in '09 than they did in '08 (when they scored the second fewest
the majors) and recorded the lowest on-base percentage (.309) and team OPS
(.699) in the big leagues. Among all 30 MLB teams, only the New York Mets,
hit fewer home runs than San Francisco last year and only two teams, the Padres and
Pirates, tallied fewer total bases. Additionally, Giants hitters drew just 392
walks for the year, or less than 2.5 per game. That's almost 30 fewer than the
Mariners, who drew the second fewest, and nearly 300 fewer than the total the
Yankees tallied to lead the majors with.
I think it can be stated with clarity that the
inept Giants' offense kept the team out of the playoffs in 2009, and the proof,
as they say, is in the pudding. When scoring three or fewer runs last season,
the Giants had a miserable record of 22-59, but when they scored four or more,
they were 66-15. That's a .815 winning percentage when scoring four or more runs
for a team that scored three runs or fewer 81 times. It was a lineup that simply
lacked the necessary firepower to win a shootout, as evidenced by their dreadful
7-44 record when allowing five or more runs (when allowing three runs or fewer,
on the other hand, they went 69-18). With merely an average offense, the Giants
might have made it to the postseason in '09.
With all that in mind, GM Brian Sabean went
into the off-season looking to add some much needed pop to an otherwise
punchless lineup. To that end, he added free-agents Aubrey Huff
(1-year, $3M) and Mark DeRosa (2-years, $12M). Not exactly the kind of
thump Giants fans were hoping for, but it might be enough to
help get them six or seven more wins and put them squarely into playoff contention.
Huff, 33, is a .282 career hitter who hit 32 home
runs and drove in 108 for Baltimore as recently as 2008. He's coming off
a down season split between the O's and the Tigers in which he hit just 15 home
runs and slugged only .384, however. In 40 games after being acquired by Detroit, he
batted just .189, and in nearly 600 total plate appearances, he reached
base at a measly .310 clip.
Huff also has a reputation as a lackluster
defensive player and, in fact, he has played the role of designated hitter 220
times over the past three years. While he holds the title of Giants starting
first baseman, his deficient glovework highlights the importance of keeping
Travis Ishikawa for late-inning defensive purposes. It's possible that Huff
could also see time in right field.
DeRosa belted a career high 23 home runs with Cleveland and St. Louis last
year after hitting 21 the year before with the Cubs, but batted just .250 for
the season with a .319 on-base percentage. He's also 35-years old and underwent
off-season wrist surgery. Nevertheless, the versatile DeRosa is
slated to be the club's opening day left fielder and will likely see time all
around the infield as well.
Sabean was also able to retain Bengie Molina
long after it had become a foregone conclusion that the free-agent catcher would
end up in New York. The team and Molina appeared set to part ways, with Sabean
declaring in December, "that ship has sailed." But when Molina spurned the
Mets in late January after they refused to offer him a guaranteed second year,
the Giants quickly re-thought their position and Molina returned on a one-year
deal for less money ($4.5M) than the Mets had offered.
For his part, Molina, 35, stated that he would be
more comfortable in San Francisco and felt that the Giants were closer to
winning. For the Giants' part, dissatisfied with the cost and quality of the
remaining free agent options, Molina provided the club with stability for the
pitching staff and punch from behind the dish while allowing super prospect
Buster Posey more time to hone his defensive game in a less pressurized
atmosphere. Molina hit a career-best 20 home runs and drove in 80 for the Giants
last season while spending much of his time in the cleanup spot. With Huff set
to take over that role, Molina can move down in the lineup and provide some
punch where his blazing (lack of) speed and fugly on-base percentage won't hurt
the club as much.
Another key part of the Giants' masterplan
involves receiving the services of second baseman Freddy "Fragile" Sanchez
for most of the season. Sanchez, 32, who was re-signed in the off-season to a
"reduced rate" two-year deal worth $12 million, played in only 25 games, and had
two stints on the disabled list after he was acquired from the Pirates in late
July. Ominously, Sanchez will begin the 2010 season on the disabled list again after
undergoing shoulder surgery in the off-season. The club hopes that, when
healthy, the former batting champion and career .299 hitter can plug the
two-hole in the Giants lineup and consistently set the table for their number
three hitter, third baseman Pablo Sandoval.
Its frightening to think how bad the Giants
offense might have been in 2009 without the free-swinging Kung Fu Panda. After
exceeding Rookie of the Year qualifications by just five plate appearances in
'08 (while putting up a .345/.357/.490 batting line), Sandoval hit .330 in 2009
to finish runner up to Hanley Ramirez for the batting crown while leading
the club in doubles (44), home runs (25), RBI (90), on-base percentage (.387),
slugging (.556), OPS (.943), and OPS+ (142). He also finished seventh in NL MVP
voting. Listed at 5-foot-11, 245 pounds (but likely closer to 260), the 23-year
old with an infectious enthusiasm for the game can, and usually does, hit just
about any pitch thrown in just about any place, but he impressed me most last
season by actually increasing his walk rate as the season went along.
The Kung-Fu Panda has the ability to
carry this team on his back.
|Cy Young Candidate|
Going for an unprecedented third Cy in
three full seasons.
As with Sandoval last year, the greatest addition to the Giants' 2010 lineup could very well come from within the organization. The fifth overall
pick in the 2008 draft, Buster Posey seemed ticketed to start this season
in Triple-A Fresno after the club re-signed Molina, but now it isn't so clear. The Giants' best hitting
prospect since Will "The Thrill" Clark turned heads with
a tremendous spring with at the plate (.321/.357/.453) and displayed his
versatility by adequately filling in at first base.
While Posey would surely benefit from the
day-to-day mentoring he would receive in San Francisco from the veteran Molina,
his defensive game will surely profit more from the type of daily tutoring he'll
receive from fast-rising Grizzlies manager Steve Decker, himself a former
Giants catcher (and future Giants manager?). And lets not kid ourselves here;
the Giants also realize that by keeping him in Triple-A until May 20 or later,
they will delay free agency for Posey until after the 2016 season (and
personally, I'm okay with that).
Three of the biggest questions still facing the
Giants offense coming into camp were, in no particular order, who will man the
leadoff spot in the batting order, who will play right field, and how
detrimental will past-his-prime shortstop Edgar Renteria be both in the
field and at the plate?
To the first, the answer, at least for now, seems
to be centerfielder Aaron Rowand, who handled the role capably in 49
starts last year, batting .294/.341/.468. While not exactly your prototypical
leadoff hitter, Rowand, 32, reported to camp ten pounds lighter than last
spring, the result of biking over 2,200 miles this winter through Nevada's Red
Rock country. After admittedly underperforming in the first two years of his
5-year, $60 million contract, he appears determined to atone and optimistically
he punished pitchers in Cactus League play to the tune of a .479/.544/.708
As to the question of right field, Nate
Schierholtz, 26, entered camp with the job his to lose. After a
poor showing this spring, coupled with a hard-to-ignore camp from John Bowker,
he may have done just that. Nate's spring line of .241/.290/.483 impressed no
one, while Bowker ended Cactus League play with a .304/.372/.609 line along with
five home runs and 20 RBI. Schierholtz, though, has a decided edge defensively. Bowker, also 26, may be better suited to play left field where DeRosa is the
starter, but the club could sorely use the power potential that Bowker has at
times flashed and they have the versatility to make the switch work.
Sadly, the Giants will continue to suffer from
Sabean's ill-conceived and rash decision last winter to offer the aging Renteria
$18 million for two seasons. The 33-year old, two-time Gold Glove winner
continued his slide into a defensive abyss in '09, posting a plus/minus rating
of -10, while also floundering at the plate for a second consecutive season,
recording the second lowest OPS (.635) of any qualifying shortstop in the majors
(Yuniesky Betancourt - .625).
Giants Team Capsule|
3/31/11 - Rotation Singing a New Song? -
Giants starting pitcher Barry Zito was injured in a two-car accident on the eve of the defending champís season opener against Los Angeles and his status for Sundayís series finale is yet to be determined. Zito was not at fault when the car he was in was hit broadside near his home in West Hollywood, nor was he seriously injured in the wreck, but he is suffering back and neck soreness and could yet be a candidate for the disabled list. Ryan Vogelsong, traded by the Giants to Pittsburgh in the 2001 deal that brought Jason Schmidt to San Francisco, and signed this off-season to a minor league contract, is the likely candidate to get the call should Zito not be able to go. Vogelsong had a 3.22 ERA in 22 innings this spring.
But the backbone of the club remains its pitching. With Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have one of the best young
pitching tandems in the game. Drafted out of high school and four months younger
than the 25-year old Lincecum, Cain is now a veteran of four full major league
seasons and is coming off a breakthrough season in which he went 14-8 with a
2.89 ERA, while Lincecum has those two Cy Young trophies to show for his two
full seasons. Both players will also be handsomely paid going forward after
inking new deals this winter: Lincecum for two years and $23 million and Cain
for three years and $27.25 million.
Even with those two, one of the biggest keys to
the Giants' season may be how the chronically inconsistent Jonathan Sanchez
fares after finishing off the 2009 season on a high note. The 27-year old
left-hander was relegated to the bullpen in late June with a 5.54 ERA, but an
injury to Johnson opened the door for Sanchez to return to the rotation and
throw the first no-hitter by a Giant pitcher since 1976. Including the no-no,
Sanchez made 16 starts after returning from the pen and registered a 3.46 ERA
while holding opposing hitters to a .189 batting average.
Outrageously overpaid left-hander Barry Zito
and Todd Wellemeyer, imported from St. Louis via free agency, round out
the rotation. Viewed optimistically, the 31-year-old Zito had the best of his three seasons as a
Giant in '09, while Wellemeyer, also 31, made 53 starts the past two seasons for
the Cardinals and posted a 3.71 ERA in almost 200 innings or work in 2008.
Twenty-year old lefty Madison Bumgarner,
the Giants' top pick in the 2007 draft, was the favored contender for the fifth
spot in the rotation at the outset of camp, but he issued 7 walks in 7 innings
while posting a 6.43 spring ERA to finish third in the competition behind strong
performances by both Wellemeyer and 25-year old rookie Kevin Pucetas.
Furthermore, Bumgarner failed to strike out a
single one of the 35 batters he faced and, thus far, has apparently failed to
recover the velocity that he mysteriously lost somewhere in the middle of the
'09 season. He'll begin the year in Fresno's rotation, but unless he regains some of the
oomph on his otherwise electric fastball, I fear the unexceptional quality of
his secondary pitches may doom him to a less inspiring career as a lefty
Anchoring what I believe will be one of the
strongest and deepest bullpens in the big leagues is Brian Wilson.
Wilson, 28, has racked up 79 saves the past two seasons, the fourth most in
baseball behind Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, and
Mariano Rivera, and last season he lowered his ERA to 2.74, down from 4.62
the year before.
The job of setting him up falls chiefly to
left-hander Jeremy Affeldt, who was among the best in the game last
year, posting a 1.73 ERA and allowing only 42 hits in his 74 appearances.
The Final Word
With the quality of the Giants' pitching, it's not
out of the question to imagine the Giants winning the National League West in
2010, but it'll take everything falling neatly into place for that to happen.
They'll need their pitching to be as good as
expected. They'll need free agents Huff and DeRosa to show they have something
left in the tank and they'll need at least modest production from whoever is in
right field. They'll need Fragile Sanchez to remain both healthy and productive,
and they're gonna need Renteria to rejuvenate his spiraling career. They'll also
need more of what they've come to expect from the Kung Fu Panda and sooner or
later they're going to have to find a way to get Buster Posey's bat into the
The D-Backs (no pitching) and Padres (no money)
are also-rans right out of the gate this season, while the Dodgers'
behind-the-scenes marital spat may have left them unable to re-arm themselves
adequately. The youthful Rockies ought to provide some stiff competition, but
with the quality of pitching the Giants have, if they can improve their
offensive production to merely league average they could possibly make it to
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