2006 Pittsburgh Pirates Team Preview
by
Brad Keller,
BaseballEvolution.com
April 1, 2006
2005 Record: 67-95 (Last Place NL Central Division)
2005 Runs Scored: 680
2005 Runs Allowed: 769
Pythagorean 2005 Record: 71-91
Well, we’re back for another exciting year of Pirates baseball! It’s a team that works just as hard you do. I love this game. So what if we’re 20 games under .500, tonight we’re giving away bobble heads and having fireworks!
I have to hand it to the Pirates’ marketing people. It could just be that baseball was my first love and I’ll never be able to leave it behind, but every year, they seem to make me believe that this it… this is the year we’re finally going to break .500! And really, that’s all I’m hoping for. If the Buccos finish 82-80 this year, I’ll grab a tree branch, start jumping up and down, and start trying to set off car alarms.
I doubt it will happen, but a lot has changed since last season (new manger, new pitching staff, some veteran bats in the heart of the order), so who knows? I have faith. Let’s see how much of that is left in June.
Here is a position-by-position breakdown of the Pirates’ changes:
Catcher
2005 Starters: Ryan Doumit, Humberto Cota,
Projected 2005 Starters: Ryan Doumit, Humberto Cota
I’m sensing a theme here. I want to be perfectly clear and say that I’m glad we traded Jason Kendall and his gigantic contract away. That thing was an albatross and it felt good to get it off our collective necks.
However, the position is now in flux. No matter how badly the Pirates have played over the years, you could always count on Kendall behind the plate. Now you can’t. And, I had held out some vain hope that the Pirates traded Kendall because they had some hot, young prospect waiting in the wings.
Not so much.
Cota and Doumit are serviceable at best, but hey, everyone needs someone to hit 8th, right? Pencil in “today’s catcher” for that spot in the line-up for the remainder of the year. Unless, of course, the Pirates manage to find a position for Craig Wilson and just tell him to play catcher. We can hope, but I don’t think anyone can hold their breath until July. Or possibly later.
First Base
2005 Starters: Daryle Ward, Brad Eldred, sometimes Craig Wilson
Projected 2006 Starter: Sean Casey
I like the Casey signing, but I’m a little leery of the idea of batting him 5th. I’m not even sure he was a #5 hitter when he played for the Reds and he was good. He’ll be consistent, he’ll get his hits, make contact, drive in runs, and have a high OBP. I just don’t think he’s productive enough to play first base in the major leagues anymore.
This is why I think that we should platoon Casey with Eldred, because, for all his flaws, Eldred might actually hit 30 HRs and have a .900 OPS at some point before he dies. Don’t see that happening with Casey.
But, sadly, he’s much better than the three-headed monster of Ward, Eldred, and sometimes Wilson.
Second Base
2005 Starter: Jose Castillo
Projected 2006 Starter: Castillo
I’m more of a traditionalist, so I prefer solid glove-work up the middle to offensive production. I think that the Pirates are pretty well set in the middle of their infield for years to come.
While Castillo isn’t flashy, he’s a solid defensive 2nd baseman that will hit .280, drive in about 60 or 70 runs, and hit about 10 or 15 homers a year. He and Wilson make up a solid defensive, yet solidly unspectacular offensive middle infield.
Third Base
2005 Starters: Freddy “Dirty” Sanchez, Rob Mackowiak, Twiggi
Projected 2006 Starter: Joe Randa
I’m going to get exceedingly negative if I write too much about this. I’ll just say this: I liked Joe Randa. I was sorry to see him go. IN NINETEEN NINETY FRICKIN’ SIX WHEN HE WAS GOOD.
Shortstop
2005 Starter: Jack Wilson
Projected 2006 Starter: Wilson
Aside from the fact that my wife wants to have an affair with him, I have nothing against Jack Wilson. He’s going to put up Castillo-like numbers every year, play outstanding defense, and do whatever he can to help his team win.
Do I wish he was as talented as A-Rod or Jeter offensively? Of course. Am I
absolutely ecstatic that we signed him to a long-term deal without breaking the bank?
You bet.
Outfield
2005 Starters: Jason Bay, Tike Redman, Chris Duffy, Jody Gerut, Matt Lawton, sometimes Craig Wilson, sometimes Daryle Ward, sometimes Ryan Doumit
Projected 2006 Starters: Jeromy Burnitz, Duffy, Bay, Wilson (sometimes)
Okay. I’ve made my point. The Pirates either need to trade Wilson or find a position for him. There are always teams that are willing to pay money and prospects for a suspect defensive player that strikes out too much and hits for power. After all, we signed Burnitz.
Really, though, I started this paragraph off on the wrong foot. I actually like the Burnitz signing. He absolutely LOVES hitting in PNC Park (though that could be more as a result of the quality of Pirates pitching than the park itself) and he kills us every year. So, we might as well take away his production against us and make it work for us. Honestly, I’m not sure why we didn’t sign him 3 or 4 years ago. Maybe he was too expensive.
Bay’s an All-Star, a former Rookie of the Year, and one half of the second best trade in the franchise’s history (replace Giles’ production, add Oliver Perez, subtract salary, remove from heat and stir). Bay and Burnitz give the middle of the line-up (Bay #3, Burnitz #4, and Casey #5) power and consistency that it has lacked for some time. At long last, we have two guys in the middle of the line-up that you need to respect and actually have a very good chance of hitting 30 home-runs this year. I know it’s all about OPS, but that comes with home-runs. Trust me.
And, last year, I had a HUGE man-crush on Chris Duffy. I love his defense, his hustle, and his competitive nature. However, the hitting coach does need does need to show him the player’s lot so he doesn’t come to the batter’s box each time as though he’s double parked. He’s going to be batting 1st. He needs to learn how to do that. I’m not saying it’s imperative that he draws 150 walks this year, but when you lead off, you need to run the count to 3-1 or 3-2 every once and a while just to see what happens.
Pitching
2005 Front Three Starters: Oliver Perez, Kip Wells, Josh Fogg
Projected 2006 Front Three: Oliver Perez, Zack Duke, Paul Maholm/Ian Snell
After Perez and Duke, everything is subject to change. Duke told the world by storm last year before getting hurt. Perez took it by storm in 2004… before getting hurt. If both can return to their former glory, we’ll have two great, young left-handers at the front of the rotation.
Maholm and Snell (like everyone in the front four) are long on talent, but short on experience, with no starter being over the age of 24.
In my opinion, the entire season hinges on how these four young men perform. I have a great deal of confidence in the bullpen. I have hopes that the offense will score some runs, or at least more than they did last year (when they were ranked 14th out of 16 NL teams). If these kids pitch to their potential, we could reach the elusive .500 mark. If not… at least Kip Wells should be ready after the All-Star Break!
Other 2005 Starters: Zach Duke, Mark Redman, Dave Williams
Other Possible 2006 Starters: Snell/Maholm, Victor Santos
Santos was kept in the line-up because of a Rule 5 technicality and Brandon Duckworth was shown the door. I really think Duckworth would’ve been a better #5, but I don’t know that there’s a huge difference and that it really matters how good the 5th starter is on a team that has had 13 consecutive losing seasons.
But… if Maholm, Snell, Perez, and Duke hold up their end of the bargain, we could have a pretty potent starting 5 when Wells returns after the All-Star Break.
2005 Top Relievers: Jose Mesa, John Grabow, Ryan Vogelsong, Saloman Torres
Projected 2006 Top Relievers: Mike Gonzalez (closer), Vogelsong, Torres, Grabow, Matt Capps
For all the ineptitude the Pirates have displayed over the past 10 years, the one mainstay has been their bullpen. It’s my theory that they’ve gone into the regular season every year with 6 legitimate starters and usually move the worst one to the bullpen, which bolsters the overall quality and depth.
The one big loss is Jose Mesa. The Ageless One decided not to come back to the Buccos for another year and will be missed. However, I do subscribe to the Billy Beane school of thought that closers are made, not born. I just won’t be sure that Gonzalez can fill Mesa’s shoes until he actually does it. We’re usually in a lot of close games. And every win counts when you’re trying to get to that “Magic 81.”
Aside from that, we’re in good shape. From solid long-relievers (Vogelsong), to excellent set-up men (Torres), to situational guys (Grabow), to rookies who can show what they’re made of (Capps), we’ve got a good, solid bullpen.
Let’s just hope we don’t have to use them too much. We have had to lean on them too heavily in previous seasons, and they tended to run out of gas in August and September.
Final Word:
Will this be the season that the Pirates finally put it all together and make it to (or past) .500?
Will Casey, Randa, and Burnitz hold up for an entire season? When they don’t, will their replacements step in and produce?
In my mind, we’ve added enough bats and have enough productive young guys in place that we will score more runs. I mean, in theory, we can’t do much worse than last year, right? We can’t, can we? Seriously, though, if Duffy figures how to be a lead-off man, Wilson rebounds from a suspect 2005 and returns to somewhere approaching his 2004 form, the new bats (Burnitz, Casey, and Joe Frickin’ Randa) produce to their historical averages, and Bay and Castillo stay constant, we can’t help but score more runs.
Therefore, it all comes down to six men. And no, I don’t mean the starting 5 and Craig Wilson. I mean the starting 5 and Jim Tracy.
As much as I love Lloyd McClendon’s tenacity, I was never a fan of his in-game management skills and the level of production that he was able to extract from his young talent. While Tracy won’t be able to match ol’ Lloyd’s passion, he definitely has a track record of making chicken pot pie out of chicken droppings. Can he do it again?
I guess we’ll see, now won’t we?
