by Richard Van Zandt, BaseballEvolution.com
November 2, 2008
It’s time once again to begin debating who deserves the top
accolades around the majors and who deserves some post-season hardware. The one
award that interests and intrigues me the most is the one that will designate
the National League’s top pitcher, the Cy Young Award. Admittedly, I have a
rather pronounced bias when it comes to this category, and I won’t pretend to
hide my desire to see a Giants pitcher take home the top prize for just the
second time in history and the first since Mike McCormick won the premiere NL Cy
Young Award in 1967. But while there are certainly a few other very deserving
candidates, for my money, the pitcher who truly has been the very best in the
senior circuit in 2008 is none other than San Francisco’s wunderkind, Tim
Lincecum.
As I proceed to make a case for Lincecum to be named the
recipient of the 2008 Cy Young Award, and before I compare the top two
candidates head-to-head, I will begin by breaking down three of the other top
contenders in the NL.
C.C. Sabathia – Milwaukee Brewers – 11-2,
1.65/1.00/.222, 128 K, 130.2 IP
While the deal that brought the reigning 2007 AL Cy Young
Award winner to Milwaukee will undoubtedly go down as one of the very best
mid-season deals in history, Sabathia’s incredible performance in almost
single-handedly lifting the Brewers into post-season play should not be enough
to earn him the NL Cy Young Award. Sure, there is precedent in Rick Sutcliffe’s
remarkable 1984 season, in which Sutcliffe went 16-1 for the Cubs after being
acquired, appropriately, from the Indians mid-season. Sutcliffe was dealt three
weeks earlier in the year than Sabathia, however, and made 20 starts for Chicago
as opposed to the 17 starts Sabathia made for the Brew Crew.
At any rate, it’s not the NL best-for-a-half-season award;
it’s the award for the best pitcher in the league for the whole season.
Sabathia threw just 130 innings in the NL this year. The top three candidates
threw just about that many in the first half of the year alone. Sutcliffe, on
the other hand, threw 150 innings for Chicago in 1984 while the Cy Young runner
up that year, Dwight Gooden, tossed just 68 more. Accolades aplenty does C.C.
deserve for his remarkable achievements in ’08, but the league’s top pitching
award should not be among them.
Brad Lidge – Philadelphia Phillies – 2-0, 41/41 SV,
1.95/1.22/.198, 92 K, 69.2 IP
It had been a downward spiral for Lidge since surrendering
that infamous home run to Sir Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. But after blowing
eight saves in just 27 opportunities for Houston in 2007, Lidge was named the NL
Comeback Player of the Year this season after converting all 41 of his chances
this year for Philadelphia. It was a phenomenal season for the Phillie closer
that included a 0.79 ERA and 27 saves in 34 road contests. He allowed just 2
home runs all season, and his opponent’s slugging percentage was just .269.
Right-handed hitters managed to bat a miniscule .105 against him (12 hits in 114
at bats). Truly, it was a season worthy of some Cy Young consideration.
It wasn’t without some noteworthy blips, however. While
his first half numbers were out of this world (1.13/1.13/.181), his second half
stats took a slight but perceptible dive (3.07/1.36/.220). After
suffering abuse at the hands of Colorado manager Clint Hurdle in this year’s
All-Star game, Lidge allowed a hit-and-a-half more and struck out one batter
fewer per nine innings pitched. Additionally, he allowed two more base runners
per nine in the second half of the season than he did in the first half. He
clearly was not the same pitcher after being man-handled by the Rockies'
skipper. While he deserves credit aplenty for avoiding suffering a blown save
while pitching at hitter friendly Citizen’s Bank Park, his 3.07 ERA and 1.47
WHIP at home indicate he may have gotten lucky a time or two.
At any rate, while Lidge had a spectacular season, it
wasn’t nearly as dominant a year in comparison to his competition as a pitcher
who threw fewer than 70 innings should need to have in order to win the Cy Young
Award.
Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks – 22-7,
3.30/1.20/.242, 3 CG, 25 DP
Brandon Webb had a fantastic season for the D-Backs, tying
with the Indians' Cliff Lee for the major league lead in wins with 22 and
becoming the NL’s first 20-game winner since 2005. His win total was the
highest in the league since Dontrelle Willis led the senior circuit that same
year with 22. In fact, only two pitchers since 1997 - Randy Johnson and Curt
Schilling with Arizona in 2002 - have had more wins in a single season than Webb
accumulated this year. Once upon a time, those 22 wins - four more than anyone
else in the NL - would have been enough to lock down the award. But this is
2008, and voters thankfully have a lot more information at their disposal
nowadays than they used to.
In matching up the top pitchers in the league, I compared
Webb along with Lincecum and the Mets Johan Santana in over 40 different
statistical categories, ranging from the very basic (ERA, hits, walks,
strikeouts) on up to some of those favored by the Sabermetric society (pitching
win shares, fielding independent pitching, pitching runs created). In this
statistical analysis, Webb came out on top in just 5 categories; wins (22),
complete games (3 - tied with Santana), fewest wild pitches (8), most double
plays induced (25) and opponents batting average versus right-handed batters
(.219). There hasn’t been a landslide this pronounced since Ronald Reagan
walloped Walter Mondale in the 1984 presidential election.
And besides, if you want to talk about Webb’s win total
then consider this: Webb left a game with a lead that his bullpen subsequently
squandered only once all year. Lincecum’s relief mates, on the other hand, lost
five leads for him while the Mets' leaky pen wasted a lead for Santana seven
times. Assume perfection in all cases, and all three have 23 wins.
Webb indeed had a fantastic season for Arizona and nothing
should lessen his remarkable accomplishments. However, the best pitcher in the
National League for 2008 he most certainly was not; at best, he was only third.
Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana – Head-To-Head
With those three seemingly worthy pretenders deposed, it’s
time to get down to the two real contenders: Lincecum and Santana. I mentioned
previously that I looked at over 40 different statistical categories as I
analyzed the performance of these two aces. Here’s a head-to-head look at
some of those.
|
Lincecum |
Santana |
|
Lincecum |
Santana |
|
Lincecum |
Santana |
W |
18 |
16 |
L |
5 |
7 |
W % |
.783 |
.696 |
CG |
2 |
3 |
SHO |
1 |
2 |
IP |
227.0 |
234.1 |
H |
182 |
206 |
BB |
84 |
63 |
SO |
265 |
206 |
HR |
11 |
23 |
DP |
23 |
12 |
QS |
26 |
28 |
ERA |
2.62 |
2.53 |
RA |
2.85 |
2.84 |
FIP |
2.67 |
3.37 |
WHIP |
1.17 |
1.15 |
ERA+ |
164 |
163 |
BAA |
.221 |
.232 |
OBP |
.297 |
.286 |
SLG |
.316 |
.362 |
OPS |
.612 |
.618 |
w/RISP |
.167 |
.230 |
vs. LH |
.221 |
.247 |
vs. RH |
.221 |
.227 |
H/9 |
7.22 |
7.91 |
BR/9 |
10.78 |
10.49 |
HR/G |
0.46 |
0.92 |
RBI |
58 |
67 |
BB/9 |
3.33 |
2.42 |
K/9 |
10.51 |
7.91 |
SB |
20 |
6 |
IP/GS |
6.88 |
6.89 |
RS |
4.92 |
4.92 |
P WS |
23.8 |
18.3 |
P RC |
142 |
134 |
AV GS |
62.1 |
60.1 |
Italics – led NL
Bold – led MLB
Out of these 36 key measures of performance, Lincecum has the upper hand on
the two-time AL Cy Young winner in 22 (they were dead even in run support).
He topped the majors in nine of those categories, while Santana
managed that feat in just two.
The Freak also led the NL in seven additional departments, whereas Johan did
in just two.
Make no bones about it: Johan Santana, in the first year of
a seven-year, $151 million contract had an absolutely fantastic season for the
Metropolitans. He ranked in the top eight in the league (min 180 IP) in WHIP (6th),
BAA (t-4th), OBP (5th), SLG (8th) and OPS (5th)
while leading in ERA. Of Santana’s seven losses, five came in games in which he
was credited with a quality start (Lincecum had two) and his efforts to guide
New York into the playoffs (8-0 in the second half; 4-0, 1.83 ERA in September,
including a three-hit shutout against Florida on the next-to-last day of the
season while pitching with a torn left meniscus) were well worthy of the record
deal he signed last winter, even if the Mets fell short once again.
A laudable argument can no doubt be made by his supporters
that Santana deserves the honor. If he were indeed to win, it could be hard to
argue that he didn’t deserve it. In my mind, however, there is no one more
deserving than Lincecum. He absolutely dominated his NL opponents in 2008,
leading the league in winning %, strikeouts, BAA, SLG, OPS, ERA+, BA w/RISP,
H/9, K/9, and HR/G. He also allowed both the fewest HR (tied) and RBI.
In leading the NL with a .783 winning percentage, Timmy
became just the fourth pitcher in history to finish 13 games or more above .500
personally while his team finished 13 or more below. Steve Carlton (1972),
Eddie Rommel (1922) and Dazzy Vance (1925) were the others. Carlton took home
the Cy Young for his efforts when he went 27-10 for those 59-97 Phillies. The Cy
Young was first awarded in 1956.
With 265 strikeouts, Lincecum had the highest figure in the
majors since 2004 when Randy Johnson whiffed 290 and Santana himself fanned
265. At the All-Star break, Lincecum led the National League with 135
strikeouts, and he paced the majors in the second half with 130 more. That
figure also gave Tim the most strikeouts in a single season in the San Francisco
Giants era (1958-present) and places him 9th on the all-time
franchise list. More impressively, his total is the second highest in Giants
history since 1900, two shy of the mark set by the legendary Christy Mathewson
way back in 1903. Since 1970, only 20 other pitchers have met or surpassed that
mark and only 32 have now done it in the modern era.
His 10.51 strikeouts per nine innings pitched also set an
all-time Giants franchise record, surpassing the mark of 10.04 set by Jason
Schmidt in ’04. That ratio ranks him 30th all-time in MLB single
season history with only 11 other starting pitchers ever having exceeded it.
Competing in just his first full season in the majors, Lincecum also expertly played role of stopper to the tune of a 14-3 record in games following a San Francisco loss. The last time any pitcher won as many as 13 games following a team loss was 2002 (Paul Byrd, Pedro Martinez, and Randy Johnson with 13 each)." Santana went
8-4 in games after a New York defeat, winning his last five straight such
decisions after beginning the season 3-4. Against playoff teams, Lincecum
went 5-2 in eight games (seven starts) while Santana went 4-2 in 10 starts.
Lincecum also dominated away from the pitching friendly
confines of
Willie Mays Field, posting a 10-2 record and a 2.22 ERA in 18 road contests
while allowing just three home runs in nearly 120 innings. And while his second
half W-L record (7-3) and ERA (2.68) were off slightly from his first half marks
(11-2, 2.57), his WHIP plunged from 1.25 to 1.07 and his opponent’s batting
average dove from .241 before the break down to just .193 afterwards. He
also struck out nearly three more batters per nine innings after the break (9.37 1st half – 12.02 2nd half) and surrendered
over a hit and a half less per nine(7.98 1st half – 6.20 2nd
half).
As I admitted to previously, I have an obvious bias towards
Lincecum, whose bandwagon I was among the first to jump on, once having declared
him
The Future of the franchise. I have never, in my lifetime, (1969-current)
seen a Giants pitcher named the top in the league. Eight times, beginning with
my hero Willie McCovey back in ’69, has a Giant hitter been voted the National
League’s Most Valuable Player, but never once has a pitcher been called the very
best. Clearly, it would be a tremendous silver lining to yet another in a string
of recent disappointing seasons for my newest favorite Giants player (joining
the likes of McCovey, Will Clark, Rod Beck, and Mike Matheny) to be voted the
2008 National League Cy Young Award winner in just his first full major league
season. It would also be a pretty nice validation of my tremendous belief in
him.
But clear is clear, and it becomes blatantly clear, when you
look closely at the entirety of his work, that San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum has flat out been the best pitcher in the National League this year.
Congratulations to Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Brad Lidge and C.C. Sabathia on
absolutely fantastic seasons and thanks for such outstanding performances. You
all helped make baseball exciting this year and had seasons worthy of
consideration for the most coveted award pitchers can receive. In the end,
though, only one pitcher rises to the top. In 2008, that pitcher was Tim Lincecum.
Statistical Sources:
ESPN.com,
TheHardballTimes.com,
BillJamesOnline.com and of course, the world's greatest web site,
Baseball-Reference.com. Big season ending thanks for the tremendous
resource.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Richard resides in San Francisco, California and can be reached at richard@baseballevolution.com.