Defending Jeter?
by Tony Aubry, BaseballEvolution.com
November 21, 2006
I’ve been a Yankee fan for 10 years and I’m about to do
something I’ve never done. Defend Derek Jeter. In Keith’s article, he mentions
that Jermaine Dye would be his MVP, but that’s another debate for another time.
The main point of his rant was the fact the Carlos Guillen was getting no love.
I didn’t mention him in my little article, but I do so now in my follow up. What
I wrote was pretty much a reaction to the fact that Morneau won the MVP
Keith mentions Guillen’s OPS in September, which was 1.082,
and then mentions Jeter’s which was .919. However, there is a problem with this.
In September, the Yankees’ games meant nothing. So Guillen having an OPS above
1.000 in September is fine and dandy, but mentioning the fact that it was X
amount higher than Jeter’s is pointless.
"This year, the Yankees made their big push for
the AL East Pennant in August after Bobby Abreu came in at the deadline and
saved the day. Derek Jeter had a below average month."
Jeter
might have had a below average month in August, while he had an OPS under .900.
However, go back to the 5 game series against Boston. He had two of the biggest
hits of season for the Yankees. In the second game of the double header, he tied
the game with a two out, bases loaded double off Mike Timlin in the top of the 8th.
That Sunday night, with a man on third and two out, he tied the game with a
single in the top of the ninth. In the series that ended Boston’s season, and
assured the Yankees the division, Jeter had two of the biggest hits of the
series.
Another
thing that bothered me was Keith reminding us about '02 award. I really don’t
care about that. This is the 2006 award; anything that happened in previous
seasons shouldn’t really matter.
Before I
go, I want to mention one more stat that comes in handy. I’m talking about WPA
(Win Probability Added) On average, a team usually has a certain chance of
winning a certain game. For example, if you’re losing by 5 runs in the bottom of
the 9th, your chances of winning the game is very low.
With each change in the score, inning, number of outs, etc, there is a change in
the average team's probability of winning the game.
If Jeter gets a big hit in the 9th, the team’s WPA goes up, as does
Jeter's. It also works vice versa. Jeter had a WPA of 5.98 while Guillen’s was
4.44.
P.S-
Keith, when your team leads the league in ERA, you can afford to have a lot of
players have down offensive years.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Tony resides in Queens, New York and can be reached at tony@baseballevolution.com.
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