by Tony Aubry, BaseballEvolution.com
November 21, 2006
Iíve been a Yankee fan for 10 years and Iím about to do
something Iíve never done. Defend Derek Jeter. In Keithís article, he mentions
that Jermaine Dye would be his MVP, but thatís another debate for another time.
The main point of his rant was the fact the Carlos Guillen was getting no love.
I didnít mention him in my little article, but I do so now in my follow up. What
I wrote was pretty much a reaction to the fact that Morneau won the MVP
Keith mentions Guillenís OPS in September, which was 1.082,
and then mentions Jeterís which was .919. However, there is a problem with this.
In September, the Yankeesí games meant nothing. So Guillen having an OPS above
1.000 in September is fine and dandy, but mentioning the fact that it was X
amount higher than Jeterís is pointless.
"This year, the Yankees made their big push for
the AL East Pennant in August after Bobby Abreu came in at the deadline and
saved the day. Derek Jeter had a below average month."
might have had a below average month in August, while he had an OPS under .900.
However, go back to the 5 game series against Boston. He had two of the biggest
hits of season for the Yankees. In the second game of the double header, he tied
the game with a two out, bases loaded double off Mike Timlin in the top of the 8th.
That Sunday night, with a man on third and two out, he tied the game with a
single in the top of the ninth. In the series that ended Bostonís season, and
assured the Yankees the division, Jeter had two of the biggest hits of the
thing that bothered me was Keith reminding us about '02 award. I really donít
care about that. This is the 2006 award; anything that happened in previous
seasons shouldnít really matter.
go, I want to mention one more stat that comes in handy. Iím talking about WPA
(Win Probability Added) On average, a team usually has a certain chance of
winning a certain game. For example, if youíre losing by 5 runs in the bottom of
the 9th, your chances of winning the game is very low.
With each change in the score, inning, number of outs, etc, there is a change in
the average team's probability of winning the game.
If Jeter gets a big hit in the 9th, the teamís WPA goes up, as does
Jeter's. It also works vice versa. Jeter had a WPA of 5.98 while Guillenís was
Keith, when your team leads the league in ERA, you can afford to have a lot of
players have down offensive years.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Tony resides in Queens, New York and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.