|
|
|
2008 Pittsburgh Pirates
Content in the Cellar
BaseballEvolution.com 2008 Spring Preview
by Keith Glab, BaseballEvolution.com
February 19, 2008
This time last year, there really were reasons for optimism in Pittsburgh.
They were coming off a 37-35 run in 2006 that topped the NL Central after the
All-Star break. Jason Bay was coming off his second consecutive 30+ homer,
100+ run, 100+ RBI season. The team added Adam LaRoche, who broke out with
32 dingers in 2006. They returned four promising young starters in Zach
Duke, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny while skimming off the
cancerous Oliver Perez and Victor Santos. They returned the 2006 NL
batting champ in Freddy Sanchez.
We all know how that season turned out. The biggest reasons for optimism this year are new ownership, a new manager, and a new general manager, because the Pirates have made virtually no changes to the on-field talent that accounted for the National League's worst record last year.
While 2008 appears to be another lost season, there are some bright signs for
the future. General manager Neal Huntington may not have traded for
prospects as one might have expected, but that might have been for the best as
tradable veterans like Bay and LaRoche are coming off down years; Huntington
may receive more of a return on those players come July.
"To make trades, you have to have players that other clubs want," Huntington
said bluntly.
He also didn't sign declining veterans to big contracts. He's also
adopting the rather obvious strategy of using his top pitching prospects as starters in
the minors, regardless of what role he envisions for them in the majors.
So there is light at the end of the tunnel, even though the casual Pirates fan
might have to squint really hard to see it.
|
| | Surprise Candidate |
|
Ryan Doumit
| |
| Disappointment Candidate |
|
Tom Gorzelanny
|
| Catcher |
| 2007 Starter |
Ronny Paulino
|
| Projected 2008 Starter |
Ronny Paulino
|
Paulino provides solid defense and acceptable offense from the backstop position. He turns 27 in April as a classic example of a Pirate player who is older than you think he should be given his level of experience and production. Expect more or less the same production from him in 2008. New manager John Russell may give more at bats here to lesser defender Ryan Doumit given a crowded outfield situation, especially if Doumit can stay healthy.
| First Base |
| 2007 Starter |
Adam LaRoche
|
| Projected 2008 Starter |
Adam LaRoche
|
We thought there was a chance LaRoche's 2006 season was a breakout and not a fluke based on his superior road numbers. In 2007, he his substantially better at home despite playing in a park that few lefties can produce in. Go figure. He batted .133 in April and .312 in the second half; perhaps he just didn't respond well to the high expectations from Pirate fans. Well, expectations are considerably lower this year, so LaRoche should perform a little better. He's free agency eligible in 2010, which makes him a candidate to be traded in July.
| Second Base |
| 2007 Starter |
Freddy Sanchez
|
| Projected 2008 Starter |
Freddy Sanchez
|
Freddy Sanchez
|
Freddy Sanchez actually regressed less than many anticipated after winning the batting title in 2006. The 30-year old is coming off right shoulder surgery and should be expected to continue his downward trend. The other second baseman options are Chris Gomez, Luis Rivas, and Ray Olmedo, so the main concern here is that Sanchez is healthy enough to play 155 games.
| Third Base |
| 2007 Starter |
Jose Bautista
|
| Projected 2008 Starter |
Jose Bautista
|
Bill James must love Jose Bautista because of his a high secondary average. In reality, Bautista would be valuable on most teams' benches, but is sorely miscast as a starter. He was arguably the worst non-Ryan Braun third baseman in the majors defensively last season.
| Shortstop |
| 2007 Starter |
Jack Wilson
|
| Projected 2008 Starter |
Jack Wilson
|
I had to do a triple-take after looking at Wilson's 2007 statistics. He hit .362 in August and .460 in September, putting his overall numbers on par with his improbable 2004 season. Even though I don't anticipate Wilson approaching that kind of output in 2008, his performance still benefited the organization greatly by staving off delusions of using Cesar Izturis regularly at shortstop. Jack Rabbit's still one of the premier defensive shortstops in baseball as well, making more plays out of the shortstop zone than any infield captain not named Troy Tulowitzki.
|
| | Comeback Candidate |
|
Jason Bay
|
|
| Kingman Candidate |
|
Xavier Nady
|
| Outfield |
| 2007 Starters |
Jason Bay
Xavier Nady
Chris Duffy
Nate McLouth |
| Projected 2008 Starters |
Jason Bay
Xavier Nady
Nyjer Morgan
Nate McLouth |
Jason Bay has publicly criticized Pirates management for failing to improve the team in the offseason. Of course, if Bay repeats his 2007 performance, trading him would be one of the most advantageous moves the Bucs could make, as the former Rookie of the Year batted just .209 after May. He battled tendinitis in his knee after offseason surgery, and a return to health could mean a return to success, particularly if he's motivated to entice a contender to trade for him.
Chris Duffy has had injury troubles of his own, undergoing left shoulder surgery in August. He should be fully recovered, but both Nate McLouth and Nyjer Morgan have stronger claims on centerfield, with the speedy Morgan covering even more ground than Duffy and McLouth slugging .544 in the final two months of the season. The Pirates would do well to give the bulk of the playing time in right field to Doumit and McLouth, but Xavier Nady stands poised to waste a lot of time out there.
|
Pirates Fun Fact - The 2008 Pirates can tie the 1933-1948 Philadelphia Phillies for a record 16th straight losing season.
|
| Bench |
| 2007 Crew |
Ryan Doumit, Josh Phelps, Jose Castillo, Cesar Izturis
|
| Projected 2008 Bench |
Ryan Doumit, Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Chris Duffy
|
The Pirates rarely needed to dip into their bench last year, which was a good thing. They will miss Josh Phelps' astounding bat off the pine, but a healthy Doumit should pick up some of the slack. The Buccos are particularly susceptible to an injury in the middle infield.
| Starting Pitchers |
| 2007 Starters |
Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Tony Armas Jr., Matt Morris, John Van Benschoten
|
| Projected 2008 Starters |
Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Matt Morris, John Van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington
|
Tom Gorzelanny
|
Supposed ace Tom Gorzelanny surpassed his 2006 innings total by 40 last year.
Fittingly, he allowed 58 hits in those final 40 innings after allowing only 156
in his first 161.1 frames. It's difficult to say whether he will suffer an
injury or just prove ineffective this year, but it amounts to the same thing for
the Pirates, seeing as how they have zero depth in the rotation behind their
front five. For example, the Pirates went 1-11 in games that former
first-rounder John Van Benschoten appeared in last year, as he battled Chris
Capuano for the
Josh Towers Award.
Other than baffling mid-season acquisition Matt Morris, the Pirates rotation features four pitchers who are 26 or younger. Despite that, Zach Duke is the only candidate for significant improvement over last year. Snell should strike out more batters and win more games, but will be hard pressed to improve upon last year's 3.76 ERA. Maholm got hammered both on the road and in the second half last year; he simply doesn't have major league quality stuff.
| Relief Pitchers |
| 2007 Relievers |
Matt Capps, Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, John Grabow, Shane Youman, Jonah Bayliss
|
| Projected 2008 Relievers |
Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, John Grabow, Romulo Sanchez, Hector Carrasco, Mike Thompson
|
Capps and Marte combined to form an outstanding 1-2 punch in last year's pen, but there wasn't much firepower behind them. That won't change this year. The relatively successful Torres and Chacon are replaced by Rule 5 draftee Evan Meek and age 38 disaster Hector Carrasco. At least it will prove difficult for the rest of the pen to perform worse than Youman and Bayliss did last year.
Outlook for the Season
Huntington's failure to sell off his veterans this offseason should give top prospects Andrew McCutcheon and Steve Pearce more time to develop in the minors. Scout.com ranked McCutcheon as the 19th best prospect in baseball in their 2008 Prospects Guide, as he's actually a Pirates prospect with some mental acuity to go with his terrific athleticism. Pearce combined for 31 homers across three levels last year, but after seeing him take batting practice last September, I guarantee he is not ready to hit for power in the majors yet. These two could compete for the 2009 Rookie of the Year Award if the Pirates don't rush them this year.
On the pitching side, Bryan Bullington still has a chance to fulfill some of his potential, but there isn't much to get excited about on the whole. The Pirates are going to need to trade for some major league-ready prospects soon to accompany their current cast to make a serious run at the NL Central in the next few years.
As for 2008, the Pirates can forget about their yearly unattainable goal of reaching .500. They can instead focus on finishing as high as fourth place for the first time in five years, as the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros can each potentially eclipse these Pirates in futility.
Team Previews Index
Do you have a different take? Send your opinions to submissions@baseballevolution.com.
| |
New Baseball Voices audio CD available in The Baseball Evolution Store:
Ron Santo: Cubs Legend
Pat Hughes and Ron Santo were the Chicago Cubs' WGN Radio announcing team for 15 seasons. Their unique on-air chemistry became known as "the Pat and Ron Show" with fans tuning in as much for their eccentric banter as for Cubs baseball itself.
|
|
|
