This past December, the Giants re-signed third baseman Pedro Feliz to a one-year contract worth $5.1 million.  That’s a raise of over $1 million from his ’06 base salary and $600,000 more than AL MVP Justin Morneau will make in 2007. 

Are you kidding me?  Instead of letting Feliz simply walk away after an historically bad season, San Francisco GM Brian Sabean choose to re-up with a player who sports a pathetic .288 career on-base percentage and a sickly .724 lifetime OPS.  Pedro was clearly not his first choice, though, as the Giants were initially rebuffed by Mark DeRosa, who decided instead to play 2B for the Cubs.  So following that rejection, and rather than exploring a deal with Houston for an seemingly obtainable Morgan Ensberg – the Astros third baseman (rumored to be on the trading block) who walked 101 times last season (in 387 AB) – the Giants' boss instead decided to remain committed to a player who has walked 120 times in his career (2,287 AB).

Now people who know me will tell you that I am among Brian Sabean’s biggest supporters.  No, he’s not the very best at what he does in baseball, but he’s far from being among the worst.  Since 1997, when he took over the role of General Manager from Bob Quinn (then immediately – and boldly – traded away popular third baseman Matt Williams for some guy named Kent), the Giants have gone 889-729 (.549), finishing in first place three times, in second place five times and as low as third just twice (in each of the last two seasons including the 2005 campaign when Barry Bonds was limited to just 14 games).   Under his guidance, the team has been out of playoff contention for a total of just 20 games combined over the last ten years and have not once been eliminated any earlier than September 24.  And in 2002, the Giants even made it all the way to the World Series only to fall an agonizing six outs shy of the prize.  And that my friends, is a pretty good track record.

Giants under Brian Sabean

* Lost 1 Game Wild Card Playoff to Chicago

** Wild Card Winner/National League Champions 

Still, people who know me will also tell you that I don’t necessarily agree with every move that Sabean makes.  The free-agent signing of Edgardo Alfonso after the 2002 season (for a stunningly stupid four-years and $26 million) is one terrific example.  I begged the baseball gods when it was still in the rumor stage not to let that happen, but of course, they didn’t listen to me. 

The re-signing of Pedro Feliz this past winter is another very good example of a move that I strongly disagree with.  Ironically enough, it was Alfonso’s signing that provided Feliz supporters with one of the many excuses used to explain his thus far less than prodigious production, but we’ll get to those excuses later. 

Those who support Feliz (yes folks, there are still a few diehards out there who believe he’s a worthwhile major league player) will tell you in his defense that he is a Gold Glove caliber third baseman and a clutch hitter who drives in a lot of runs, while generally ignoring his many flaws.  I’ll give them that he’s a “very good” defensive 3B, but I’m not fooled by his RBI total to fall for that clutch moniker.  Allow me to dispel those notions right off the bat.

Gold Glove Caliber?

As I said, Pedro Feliz is a “very good” fielder.  I mean, it’s not like he’s completely without redeeming qualities, but Gold Glove caliber?  I wouldn’t go that far.  Let’s look at the various available defensive numbers.

Feliz rated a +25 in the 2007 Bill James Handbook in terms of expected plays made, second only to Brandon Inge, and over a three-year span (2004-06) he rated a +54, tying him for third with David Bell (behind only Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre).  Additionally, Feliz finished second in the majors in 2005 with a +16 despite playing only 79 games at 3B. 

Also last season – in more conventional terms – Feliz ranked 3rd in the majors in innings, assists, total chances and zone rating, and he was first in the NL in both assists and total chances, as well as second in both zone rating and range factor.  And Feliz is also among the best in baseball at fielding bunts, ranking in the majors in ’05 and rating a B+ over a three-year span according to The Fielding Bible.  Add that all up, and clearly when it comes to range, Feliz is one of the top 3B in baseball. 

On the downside, however:  Among all 3B last season, Feliz committed the fifth most errors in the majors (21) and ranked 14th out of 20 in fielding percentage (.955 - .001 above the league average).  What’s more, Feliz brought his habit of fast starts and slow finishes at the plate with him to the field, committing just three errors in the team's first 40 games (one every 13.33 games) before making 18 more in the final 122 (one every 6.77 games). 

And while the numbers in this year’s BJH definitely indicate that Feliz is a very good defensive 3B, a select group of 10 experts collectively ranked Feliz as the 7th best 3B in baseball in 2006 (though James himself had Pedro pegged at number 2).  Pedro Feliz is very good, yes, but Gold Glove caliber?  Not quite.  At least not yet.  

Clutch Hitter?  Or Cherry Picker?

Cherry picking – Canadian Slang – Definition – Someone who takes the best of something available, be it a product or opportunity, and leaves the rest.
 

Over the last three seasons, Pedro Feliz has averaged nearly 88 RBI per year, topping all Giants during that span by driving in 263 runs.  In 2006 he missed the century mark by just 2 and led the team in RBI for the second straight year.  So aren’t all those RBI proof that Pedro Feliz really is a clutch hitter? 

The short answer is no.  But people who know me will tell you that I’ve never been known to give many “short” answers.  Then again, I’d like to see you, the reader, get to the end of this rant, so I’ll try to keep it as brief as possible while still being thorough. 

In his career, Pedro Feliz is a .239 hitter with a .418 slugging percentage while batting with runners in scoring position.  That’s in over 700 career plate appearances.  In 2005 alone, he hit a miserable .219/.257/.406/.663 with ducks on the pond.  Yet Feliz has all those RBI.  What gives?  Where are they coming from?  A much closer look gives us an interesting answer. 

In his career, Feliz has 346 runs batted in.  Of those, 106 - or 31% - have come while there were runners at both second and third base.  In other words, folks: Feliz is cherry picking.  Those situations (second and third only or bases loaded) are exactly the type where you would most expect a hitter to drive in runs.  And certainly he does do that.  In such situations he is a .313 career hitter. 

He was particularly impressive in ’06, batting .381 while plating 39 of his 98 RBI with runners at both second and third (that’s 40%).  Of course what that also means is that while Feliz drove home 39 runs in just 48 plate appearances, he also drove in only 59 more in nearly 600 additional PA.    

But what does it really mean to say that he’s driven in 31% of his runs with men at second and third?  How can I be certain that this is cherry picking?  By taking a look at some of the great RBI guys in baseball history (since 1957 when such data is available) and also looking at a random sampling of some of today’s top hitters, you’ll clearly see that it’s not at all uncommon to be very good in those situations.  But when you look more closely you’ll also see that Feliz has plated a disproportionately large percentage of RBI in easy “cherry picking” opportunities.  

W/ Runners on 2^nd and 3^rd and bases loaded

*Includes totals from 1957 through end of career only

Now I’m not trying to knock Pedro for being good at driving home runners from second and third as there obviously is nothing wrong with that.  But what the numbers clearly show is that Pedro’s output in such expected RBI situations is not so remarkable as to excuse his failure in so many other key situations.

Notice how, aside from when runners are at second and third, Pedro’s best numbers are with the bases empty, nobody out and in the middle innings (though he’s not too terrible when it’s late and close).  And really, those numbers aren’t all that impressive either.  Take for example his career numbers while leading off.

Now while his .290 BA looks nice, his .310 OBP in that situation indicates that he’s actually hurting the team by making an out nearly 70% of the time he starts an inning (which is actually pretty good for Feliz, as we’ll find out later).  Correspondingly, his .472 SLG when leading off an inning (.036 higher than his overall career rate) shows that he benefits from pitchers who generally take a more aggressive approach with the free swinging Feliz while nobody is on the bases.  Still, he does have a modicum of value in this less pressured situation (and some rather obvious drawbacks, such as his high K rate and low BB rate for starters).

RBI and BA however aren’t the only indications that Feliz is capitalizing more often when the pressure is generally lower.  Through 2006, Pedro has hit 89 home runs in his career.  Of those, 44% have been hit while the Giants were ahead.  30% of those 89 have been hit while the team was ahead by 2 or more, 29% have been hit while ahead or behind by 4 or more and over 16% of his career HR have been hit while ahead by four runs or more. 

Comparing that again to some of the great home run hitters of all-time as well as a some of today’s great HR hitters, you once again find that Pedro pales woefully in comparison in every clutch situation (and let me also quickly clarify that with an average of 21 per year over the last three seasons while averaging over 550 AB per year, I don’t mean to insinuate in any way, shape or form that Feliz is a great home run hitter).  

* Includes totals from 1957 through end of career only

Is Pedro Feliz really the kind of clutch hitter that he’s made out to be?  Not in the least.  Feliz simply pads his stats with easy RBI and meaningless home runs.  He isn’t clutch.  He’s a cherry picker.