Randy Johnson - Questions for 2006
by
Asher B. Chancey,
BaseballEvolution.com
April 2, 2006
Randy Johnson takes the mound today as the Opening Day starter for the New York Yankees. While Johnson is almost certainly a lock for the Hall of Fame, other questions linger as Johnson heads into his 19th season.
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| What Should We Expect from the Unit This Season? | |
First and foremost for Yankees fans is the Big Unit's play on the field. Two years ago, Johnson enjoyed his best season ever (or at least in many year) holding opponents to a .197 AVG and a shocking 0.90 WHIP. His ERA was a fantastic 2.60, and he struck out 290 while walking only 44. But last season for the Yankees, he was a different pitcher, as his opponents batting average ballooned to .243, and his ERA swelled to 3.79, his worst full season ERA since 1989, his first full year in the bigs. Johnson still pitched 225.2 innings, and still managed a 17-8 record, but his 211 strikeouts was significant decrease over the previous season, and his 32 homeruns allowed were a major redflag (his previous career high was 30, in a remarkable 271.2 innings in 1999).
In fact, while he was busy giving up a career high number of dingers, last season marked the first time since 1990 that Johnson failed to strike out better than a batter per inning, and shockingly it was only the second time since 1989 that he failed to throw a shutout. Yankees fans are right to feel that the Johnson they saw last year was not the Johnson they thought they had acquired.
Questions about Johnson's on-field play lead inevitably to other questions about the end of Johnson's career, and whether we may be coming to it. Johnson turns 43 in September, so he is entering a period in his career that only a handful of players have been fortunate enough to reach. Johnson of course pitched a perfect game at the age of 40, and has done things since turning forty that most 25 year olds can't do. But as we all know, guys can kind of fall off of a cliff after they reach the age of 40 (and some after the age of 35), and we have to wonder if Randy is currently at the edge looking over.
There are other questions, though, with respect to the milestones. This is baseball, of course, and we are always mindful of the milestones.
At the end of the 2003 season, Johnson was 41 years old and coming off of an injury plagued season in which he pitched only 18 games, and finished with a 6-8 record to bring his career win total up to 230. Talk of Johnson winning 300 games would have been silly at that point. But in the last two years, Johnson has reeled off 33 wins, bringing his total to 263, which leaves him 37 wins shy of the 300 mark. Now the question doesn't look so silly.
To be sure, Johnson probably needs three seasons to reach the 300 mark. That would mean pitching until he was 45 years old. Nolan Ryan did it. Phil Niekro did it. There is no reason to think that Johnson couldn't do it.
For the record, Johnson does it in two seasons if he averages 18.5 wins per season, which would mean 19 one year and 17 the other. Johnson does it in three seasons if he averages 13.33 wins per season, or 14, 13, and 13.
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| Didn't look much different at 24 than he does at 42. | |
Of course, he could be dominant this season like he was in 2002, peel off 24 wins and only need 13 more in 2007. Hell, if Johnson could pitch this season the way he did in 2004, he would win 24 games in a wash.
The other milestone to watch is of course the strikeouts. Johnson is currently third in career strikeouts, behind Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens, but he is only 130 behind Clemens. If Randy is healthy all season, and Clemens does in fact decide to call it quits, then Johnson becomes the number two all time strikeout leader by August. Then the question becomes – what next? Assuming he amasses 200 Ks this season, his career total through 2006 would be 4,572, leaving him 428 shy of becoming the second player ever (and the last for a long long long time) to accumulate 5,000 strikeouts in a career. Another milestone attainable if Johnson pitches three more seasons.
Another milestone to watch, though it is of lesser significance, is Johnson's innings pitched. He currently has 3593.70. He pitched 225 innings last season, and 245 the year before. Assuming he pitches 204 innings this year and next, he would become the 41st player to reach the 4000 innings mark (Tom Glavine is about to become the 40th). To put that into perspective for you, the only currently active players with over 4,000 innings are Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux. Only Glavine and Johnson are even in striking distance. Kevin Brown, at the age of 41, has 3256.30. David Wells, 43, has 3206.3. Mike Mussina, 37 this season, just crossed the 3,000 inning mark last season, and 39 year old Curt Schilling is currently 94 innings short of it. Pedro Martinez only has 2513.0 innings pitched!
In the end, this is all a moot point of course because Randy Johnson's Hall of Fame enshrinement is all but guaranteed at this point. And frankly Johnson could pop something throwing his first pitch of the game today and his current stats would become his final stats. But if Randy Johnson does have three seasons left, and he can get to 300 wins and 5,000 strikeouts, that would be pretty impressive.
And without attaching too much importance to the achievement of arbitrary milestones, it would be pretty difficult for the Unit's detractors to deny him a place among the Top Ten pitchers of all time.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Alexandria, VA, and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.
