Chicago White Sox Review
by
Asher B. Chancey,
BaseballEvolution.com
October 2, 2006
I picked the Chicago White Sox to finish second to the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central with a 94-68 record, and go to the playoffs as the wild card, which really made me the anomaly in the baseball world, as the Sox were the prohibitive favorite to win it all for the second year in a row. Among baseballevolutionites, only Keith, Eric, and I picked the White Sox to not win the AL Central. The White Sox did in fact finish with 90 plus wins, but in a surprisingly strong AL Central, they finished third and failed to make the playoffs.
The reasons for the White Sox demise are not completely obvious. The White Sox offense had unprecedented success. For example, they were the first White Sox team ever to feature four 30 plus homerun hitters. The pitching staff was stable, and even improved in the off-season by dumping Orlando Hernandez and acquiring Javier Vazquez. In fact, every move this team made was an apparent upgrade, as they also sent Aaron Rowand to the Phillies for Jim Thome while dumping the oft-injured Frank Thomas to the A's.
Nevertheless, the White Sox faltered this season, for reasons more subtle than anything. The pitching staff simply fell apart this season, giving up over a run more per nine innings this season than last despite the acquisition of Vazquez. Mark Buehrle, the team's ace, was positively, and inexplicably, terrible. Jon Garland followed up a breakout season in 2005 with a terrible start in 2006, though he does win the 2006 Bartolo Colon Charmed Pitcher of the Year Award. Garland finished 18-7 despite a 4.51 ERA, and at one point was 12-4 with an ERA of 5.16. Brandon McCarthy proved he needed another season in the womb, getting shelled in his second season. None of the starters finished the season with an ERA under 4.27.
In my mind, the explanation for this is relatively simple. As I contended in the off-season, the White Sox pitching staff over achieved last season, and a big reason for that was the outfield defense of Jermaine Dye-Aaron Rowand-Scott Podsednik. In fact, when Podsednik went out for a spell in August of last year, the White Sox faltered. I viewed the White Sox defense as a big part of their pitching success. Exit Rowand, enter the platoon of Rob Macowiak and Brian Anderson, and you substantially degrade the defense behind your pitching staff. I have been assured by Keith that Anderson is a fine defensive centerfielder, but he started only 100 of the team's games.
There was talk in some circles last season and in the off-season to the extent that the acquisition of A.J. Pierzynski was the reason for the success of the White Sox pitching staff last season. A.J. caught 128 games for the 2005 White Sox, who finished the season 99-63. This season, A.J. caught 12 more games, and the White Sox have finished 9 games worse than they did the year before. Coincidence? In truth, in Pierzynski's time with the Twins and Giants, those teams ERAs were higher with Pierzynski than without. This season's performance by the White Sox pitching staff is more of what should be expected with A.J. Pierzynski behind the plate.
That the White Sox won 90-plus games the way the pitching staff performed is a tribute to their amazing offense. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Joe Crede comprised a murderer's row of sorts. All four hit 30 homeruns, three out of the four of them finished with OPS over .900 and drove in 100 runs, and Thome and Dye each finished with over 100 runs scored and OPS over 1.000.
It is hard to tell what is in store for the White Sox. Will Buehrle return to form in 2007? Will Javier Vazquez ever be the pitcher he was with the Expos? How old is Jim Thome? Will Kenny Williams re-sign the deceptively mediocre Joe Crede, who walked just 28 times in 544 at-bats? Will Scott Podsednik be able to play a full season after missing significant time in both of his seasons with the Sox? Will Brian Anderson emerge as an everyday centerfield star? Will the always talented but often injured Jermaine Dye be on the field long enough to replicate his 2006 numbers in 2007?
In the end, it appears that the name of the game in the AL Central, for now, is pitching. The Tigers and Twins both appear to have tons of pitching, while the Indians and White Sox have tons of hitting. The White Sox faltered this year because their pitching faltered, and whether the White Sox can rebound next year will depend on whether their pitching can do the same.
Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Asher resides in Philadelphia, PA and can be reached at asher@baseballevolution.com.
