Don’t Fiesta Quite Yet, Pedro
by
Karl Wright, Guest Contributor to
BaseballEvolution.com
April 19, 2006
It seems everyone is jumping on the New York Mets’ bandway this spring. After posting a 10-3 mark early on - their best season start in franchise history - coupled with the Braves’ and Phillies’ slow starts – affording them a cushy, albeit early 4 game lead in the division – the Mets are ready for the glory of the postseason. The only problem is, its April 19th. Well, that’s not the only problem, but it’s a good starting point.
Let’s put this early success in perspective. Half of their ten victories came at the expense of the divisional-stepchild Nationals, two others were earned over the powerhouse Marlins, two over the youthful Brewers, and they pocketed a win over the Braves in the first game of their current series. Unfortunately for them, they were throttled yesterday in the second game of this set. This early season “success” would be considered nothing more than a good run if it had occurred in June, after the Mets had played a significant portion of their schedule against good teams. Okay, perhaps that’s a little subjective; how about against teams over .500. So far, they have yet to play a team that fits into that criteria. The opponent who comes the closest is the Milwaukee squad that has managed to lose seven of their last nine to settle into their traditional role as fifth-place in the NL Central with a 7-7 record. The Mets’ early season schedule lends itself to irrational hope for fans.
Mets fans are so overjoyed that they’ve not even noticed yet that Pedro’s numbers are actually down. Granted, he’s already posted a 3-0 record, so that’s good. But, if we assume he pitches 217 innings, as he has the last two seasons, then he’s on pace to garner 194 K – his lowest output since his injury-shortened season of 2001 (the only other seasons he posted a worse mark were pre- 1996) – and give up 102 R, which would be the most he has ever given up in a season. His previous high was 100 back in 1996. the same year he had a 3.70 ERA (his second worst single-season mark). Lets not forget that his current ERA of 3.66 would be his second worst in 8 seasons (3.90 – his worst – came in his last season with Boston). This is another factor that does not bode well for the Mets. Their ace is not having his finest season…yet. Obviously, Pedro Martinez is a future Hall of Famer and in no way can you say his numbers are terrible. Let’s remember though, that he had only a respectable 15-8 record to go along with a 2.82. ERA with 208 K while only allowing 69 R. If you get stuck on his current 3-0 record he currently enjoys, refer to the previous paragraph.
As for the remainder of the pitching staff, it’s a crapshoot. The jury is out on Brian Bannister who has posted an excellent 2.50 ERA, mainly because he’s A) a rookie and B) pitched against no one so far this season. If there is anyone out there who expects Glavine to continue to have a sub- 2.00 ERA (he’s sitting pretty currently with a 1.50 ERA), you really need to join the Farm Forum, because we need new punching bags. Historically, he has been the prototypical first-half pitcher, anyway. Mets fans probably can’t expect anything better (or worse) from Steve Trachsel (4.09 ERA), and Victor Zambrano (9.00 ERA) should settle into a mid to upper 4 ERA by the end of the season. None of this is good for the Mets. The only shot they have of winning enough games to earn a playoff berth with this staff is if the Bannister and Glavine can continue putting up solid numbers and the Mets offense goes juggernauting, which is another issue altogether. Assuming that Beltran and Delgado stay healthy and Floyd and Wright continue to have solid seasons, this will be a very potent line-up. However, not one that will have the ability to overcome poor pitching performances on a nightly basis. I hate to be a naysayer, but…NAY!
Karl Wright currently resides in Dallas, Texas and eagerly accepts feedback at karl@thesportsfarm.com. You can check out more of his work at www.thesportsfarm.com.
