Adjusted Bonds Totals
by Keith Glab, Baseball Evolution
March 10, 2006



Barry Bonds averaged 73 Adjusted Batting Runs per season from 1996 through 1998, his last three non-strike shortened seasons prior to allegedly using illegal performance enhancing drugs. If we would expect a decline after 1998 without foreign substances, it certainly wouldn’t be less than 60 ABR per season. If we credit Bonds with that rate for the past seven seasons and add them to Bonds’ pre-1999 totals, we obtain 1083 hypothetical "clean" ABR. Here’s where 1083 would rank all time:

Babe Ruth 1444
Barry Bonds 1083
Ted Williams 1067
Lou Gehrig 1028
Ty Cobb 1023
Hank Aaron 933
Stan Musial 930
Rogers Hornsby 892
Mickey Mantle 884
Willie Mays 859

In fact, only 29 players ever would have over half of Bonds’ hypothetical total. Factor in Bonds’ 506 career stolen bases (a total that would no doubt be higher had he not bulked up in ’99) at a 78% clip, a phenomenal strikeout rate (fewer walks than strikeouts even prior to ’99), an exceptionally low double play rate (just 143 in well over 10,000 PA’s, roughly once in every 16 DP situations), and eight Gold Glove Awards.

I think Bonds is still in some pretty elite company.




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Disagree with something? Got something to add? Wanna bring up something totally new? Keith Glab resides in Chicago, Illinois, and can be reached at keith@baseballevolution.com.



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