2005 Record: 100-62 (1st Place NL Central Division)
2005 Runs Scored: 805
2005 Runs Allowed: 634
Pythagorean 2005 Record: 98-64
Two years ago I set the world on fire by accurately predicting that the Cardinals would be the best team in the National League, calling them the most underrated team in baseball. Am I ready to duplicate the feat by predicting that 2006 will be the year of their demise? Uh . . . not so much. However, the NL Central will be a tough division this year, and the Cardinals have lost some key components from last season. Oh, and they added Sidney Ponson.
Catcher
2005 Starters: Yadier Molina
Projected 2006 Starters: Yadier Molina
Whenever you have one of the flying Molina brothers behind the plate, you are in good shape. It would be nice to get a little more offense out of the kid, but at 23 his offense is coming along and he handles pitchers like a veteran.
First Base
2005 Starter: Albert Pujols
Projected 2006 Starters: Albert Pujols
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST - HIS CAREER NUMBERS ARE ON A SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY!!!!!
That having been said, Prince Albert plays like the next Ted Williams and will only be 26 this year. Pujols should dominate once again this season.
Second Base
2005 Starters: Mark Grudzielanek
Projected 2006 Starter: Junior Spivey
Lets have a look at the Cardinals second basemen of the last half-dozen or so years:
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
| Fernando Vina | Bo Hart/Vina | Tony Womack | Mark Grudzielanek | Junior Spivey |
Third Base
2005 Starters: Abraham Nunez, Scott Rolen
Projected 2006 Starters: Scott Rolen
The Post-Abraham Nunez Era begins in St. Louis . . .
Scott Rolen missed all but 56 games last season, and was a shell of his usual self. When Rolen was on the rise with the Phillies in the late 1990s, everyone in the world was willing to talk about how great he was, and for some good reason. He is clearly a great defender, but he was not quite the next Mike Schmidt that everyone seemed to think he was. His 1998 season was awesome, but lots of people were awesome in 1998. Then, in 1999 and 2000 he was hurt for significant portions of the season (112 and 128 games played). He was still very good in those years, but not among the league's elite. In 2001, he played a full season and did very well - 25/107 with a .289/.378/.498, but 74/127. In 2002, the season he was traded to the Cards, he was fantastic on defense, probably his best season, and tied his career highs for HR/RBI, but his AVG/OBP dipped, and he increased his double plays from 6 to 22 while hitting fewer doubles and scoring fewer runs. In 2003, his numbers all rebounded, and then 2004 was his career year, as he set career highs in AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, and Ks, and scored over 100 runs for the second time in his career. Then last season he was hurt and not very good.
In short, Rolen has spent most of his career being considered one of the best players in the game without really ever being that, with the exception of 2004.
My point is this - if Rolen somehow can't rebound from last season, and finishes his career with two more seasons of part time play, I would bet that people will remember the 2004 version of Scott Rolen whenever his name comes up, and he will be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
This is of course hypothetical, but there is a point to it. Look for Rolen to be solid but not great this year.
2006 Scott Rolen Prediction - 27HR 98RBI .287/.367/.498 77/120
Shortstop
2005 Starters: David Eckstein
Projected 2006 Starter: David Eckstein
Based on what happened with Womack in 2004, I predicted Eckstein to score tons of runs in 2005, and his OBP to go way up as he hit at the top of a powerful order. And, while his runs scored did not increase, Eckstein essentially tied or broke his career high in every offensive category, and walked more than he struck out for the second time in his career. Humorously, after years of high HBP and low GDP, they pulled even last season as he had 13 of each.
Eckstein is 31 years old this year, and while he is old, he is still a mediocre fielder. His range factor stats from last season jumped tremedously, from .35 below league average to .83 above league average, and he completed almost fifty more double plays than the season before. These stats would indicate that his game suddenly improved by leaps and bounds. But the Fielding Bible shows him as the 20th best in plus/minus for each of the last 2 years, indicating no improvement at all, and his double play ranking, while better last season, is not great.
When the Angels were in the playoffs in 2002, we noted that whenever he fielded a groundball, Eckstein seemed to have to strain to make the throw to first. Then an announcer mentioned that he was a converted second baseman. What really stumped us, though, was later in the series when it was revealed that Adam Kennedy was a converted shortstop. . .
Eckstein is a solid contributor, and if he can replicate his .294/.363, he is valuable as a leadoff hitter. If he can't, the Cards will need a better table setter for their potent offense.
Outfield
2005 Starters: Reggie Sanders, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, So Taguchi, John Mabry
Projected 2006 Starters: Edmonds, Larry Bigbie, Juan Encarnacion
I wonder how few games Jim Edmonds could play and still win the Gold Glove. Edmonds was the first player I checked when I got my copy of the Fielding Bible - turns out, he is pretty terrible in the plus/minus category, consistently getting to fewer balls than the average centerfielder would. He makes his money, though, on baserunner kills, where he has ranked first in the Majors among center fielders in the last two seasons. . .
Edmonds declined last season after a fantastic 2004 season. 2004 was his career year, and at 36 this season he will probably be more like the 2005 version of himself.
One will be tempted to think Larry Bigbie and Juan Encarnacion where Reggie Sanders, Larry Walker, So Taguchi, and John Mabry were last year is a step down. It isn't. Sanders was surprisingly good last year, but only played 97 games. Walker was solid, but only played 100 games. Taguchi and Mabry weren't particularly good.
Two years ago, Larry Bigbie finished first in the Majors in plus/minus, according to the Fielding Bible. But that is about all there is good to say about the guy.
Last season Juan Encarnacion finished 27th in plus/minus, which should not give the Cardinal pitchers much hope for defensive support between Edmonds and Encarnacion. Offensively, Encarnacion was surprisingly decent last season, which could mean that joining the Cards will only improve his numbers. He is somehow only 30 this year, while I feel like he has been playing since I was 12.
This is a patchy squad, and the Cards will probably be making other plans in the outfield by the break.
Pitching
2005 Front Three Starters: Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan
Projected 2006 Front Three: Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan
Not much to say about Carpenter - He is in year three of his second career, after missing most of 2002 and all of 2003. He is an ace with ace stuff, and does everything right - low walks, good Ks, not a lot of hits, not a lot of HR.
I was about to write something disparaging about Mark Mulder here, and then I realized that we may have set the bar a little high with this guy. Is he a dominant pitcher in Major League Baseball? No. But he wins, and gets his innings, and he keeps the ball in the park. Now, his K/BB ratio is NOT good, and is going in the wrong direction. But at 28, he is a quality number 2 starter.
I have a theory about Jeff Suppan - he is the exact same pitcher now that he was with the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Pirates. On the 2002 Royals, that gets you a 9-16 record, and on the 2004 Cardinals, that gets you a 16-9 record. Seriously - of all his numbers, only his wins and losses are different now than they were before he joined the Cardinals. Make of that what you will.
Other 2005 Starters: Jason Marquis, Matt Morris
Other Possible 2006 Starters: Jason Marquis, Sidney Ponson
The best thing that can be said for Marquis is that he has pitched 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. His ERA is average, his K/BB is less than that. He makes mistakes, he doesn't overpower, but he eats innings, and with the Cardinals offense, that is good enough. Not a good pitcher.
Speaking of not good, the Cardinals picked up Sidney Ponson this season. You mean the Cardinals have Larry Bigbie AND Sidney Ponson. The Redbirds are taking all of the Orangebirds bad players! But seriously folks . . .
Before he self-destructed, Ponson was a merely below average pitcher who had a great 21 game stretch for the O's in 2003 but wasn't very good otherwise. As Keith has pointed out, Dave Duncan does wonderous things, but I just don't see an upside to Sidney Ponson.
2005 Top Relievers: Jason Isringhausen, Ray King, Julian Tavarez
Projected 2006 Top Relievers: Isringhausen, Ricardo Rincon, Braden Looper
Six of one, half-dozen of the other. Exit Ray King and Julian Tavarez, who were awesome last year, and enter Ricardo Rincon and Braden Looper, who are coming off of down years but are both probably better than King and Tavarez overall.
Hey, this is weird - last season, Looper's K/BB was 27/22, while Rincon's was 27/20!
Final Word:
Predicted 2006 Record: 97-65
It is tempting to think of this as an old team, but it is not. The offense obviously revolves around the Big Three, Edmonds, Pujols, and Rolen (not in that order), and their success on offense will be tied to the health of Edmonds and Rolen because the supporting cast is simply not as strong as they have been in years past. The Cardinals pitching was unheralded last season, and was a big part of the team's overall success.
In each of the last two seasons, the Cardinals have jumped out to huge leads in the standings by July, and then coasted to the NL Central title. This season, there will be fewer easy wins as almost every team in the Central will be competitive. The Cardinals will fade just a little, and winning the division won't be nearly as easy as it has been these last two years, but they are still the class of the division.
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